The Tuskegee Golden Tigers (5-5, 5-3) take on the Alabama State Hornets (6-5, 5-3 SWAC) in the 100th edition of the Thanksgiving Day “Turkey Classic” on Thursday, Nov. 28. This game kicks off at 2 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPNU.
This will be the final game of the season for both of these proud HBCU squads and a great way to for HBCU football to showcase itself on national TV.
While there is no line on this game as of writing, Alabama State is projected as a -24 favorite in the contest with the over/under projected at 44.5.
Let's dive into my Tuskegee vs. Alabama State predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 28.
Tuskegee vs Alabama State Prediction
- Tuskegee vs. Alabama State Pick: Under 44.5
My Alabama State vs. Tuskegee best bet is on both teams to stay under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tuskegee vs Alabama State Preview
Tuskegee Golden Tigers Betting Preview: Plenty of Prep Time
Tuskegee has been idle since a Nov. 9 home loss at the hands of Miles College.
The Golden Tigers have struggled through a middling up-and-down season that saw a three-game losing streak to open the season followed by five straight conference wins before losing their last two.
The team competes in the Division II SIAC conference, which is regarded as one of the weaker Division II conferences with teams rarely finding wins outside of the conference schedule or favorably scheduled NAIA opponents.
Tuskegee's defensive line is undersized, coming in with only one player above 300 pounds. Now, it'll face a heavy dose of rushing attempts from Alabama State.
The Hornets have run for 200-plus yards five times this season, including a game against a common opponent: Miles College. ASU won that game, 24-3.
Alabama State Hornets Betting Preview: Key Advantages
Alabama State comes in off a victory last week over Prairie View A&M by a score of 9-6.
The Hornets have found themselves in lower-scoring defensive bouts all season, as the offense has struggled to pass the football and relies heavily on the run game.
The Hornet defense has been the best unit in the SWAC all season and has routinely frustrated opposing offenses week in and week out.
The stop unit has held foes to just 17.6 points per game and has been especially tough up front. Alabama State is holding teams to just 103 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry for the season.
This defense should show well in this game given the opponent, as the Hornets will have a significant talent edge here in the trenches.
Alabama State has done well to generate a pass rush and create Defensive Havoc all season. The Hornets have registered 36 sacks and 80 tackles for loss and have registered at least four sacks in four of their last five games.
With having a major talent edge over a Division II opponent, the Hornet defensive line should take over here. This advantage will be magnified if Tuskegee can't run the ball.
Tuskegee vs Alabama State Pick & Prediction
While there's no line on this game as of writing, I would take the under in this matchup at 44.5 or higher.
The Hornets have significant talent edges in the trenches in this game, and Tuskegee will have a major challenge moving the football here.
The Golden Tigers have run the ball for just 137 yards per game with a 3.9 yards-per-carry average on the season. Well, Alabama State had the top rush defense in the SWAC, holding opponents to just 103 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry on the season.
The Alabama State secondary has performed well all season, as the back-end unit has held eight opponents under 200 yards passing while racking up 15 interceptions.
The Golden Tigers don't have game-changing talent at the skill positions. In fact, zero pass-catchers have more than 500 yards on the season, and only one player has more than 22 catches.
In the late stages of this game when fatigue sets in, I can't see Tuskegee finding much offensive success.
When it comes to playing in close, Alabama State has been atrocious in the red zone this season. It has scored touchdowns on just 11-of-33 trips inside the 20-yard line. The Hornets have kicked an amazing 15 red-zone field goals this season.
Tuskegee has allowed red-zone touchdowns on only 48% of drives this season, and unless we see significant variance in coaching tendency or play-calling, I would expect the conservative approach to continue.
ASU also plays at a very slow pace, averaging 29 seconds between plays on the season while running the ball 65% of the time.
We should see a spirited effort on both sides here. Tuskegee has been game-planning for this one for nearly three weeks and should have a handle on what Alabama State wants to do offensively.
With two run heavy teams, a lack of explosive play-making ability and weak red-zone execution, I expect a defensive battle here.
Pick: Under 44.5 or Better
Tuskegee vs Alabama State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | ASU Stadium. Montgomery, AL |
| Date: | Thursday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Tuskegee vs Alabama State Weather
