The UC Davis Aggies (11-2) hit the road this week and travel to Vermillion to take on the South Dakota Coyotes (10-2) in FCS quarterfinal action on Saturday, Dec. 14. This game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN+.
Of the four quarterfinal matchups to be played this weekend, this game is projected to be the closest and most competitive contest.
The Coyotes enter as 4.5-point favorites in the contest with the over/under set at 58. UC Davis has also been taking money late in the week.
We've seen this line come down from +6 or +6.5 all the way down to +3.5 in some spots.
This is sure to be a fascinating contest in the Dakota Dome this weekend, so let's dive into my UC Davis vs. South Dakota predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Dec. 14.
UC Davis vs South Dakota Prediction
- UC Davis vs. South Dakota Pick: South Dakota -4.5
My South Dakota vs. UC Davis best bet is on the Coyotes to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UC Davis vs South Dakota Odds
| UC Davis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 +100 | 57.5 -115 / -105 | +175 |
| South Dakota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 / -105 | -210 |
- UC Davis vs South Dakota Spread: UC Davis +5.5 (+100) · South Dakota -5.5 (-120)
- UC Davis vs South Dakota Over/Under: 57.5 Points
- UC Davis vs South Dakota Moneyline: UC Davis +175 · South Dakota -210
UC Davis vs South Dakota Preview
UC Davis Aggies Betting Preview: Can Aggies Keep Rolling?
UC Davis comes in off a dominant 42-10 win over Illinois State last week, which saw the Aggies score four straight touchdowns in the first half to take a commanding lead into the break.
The usual suspects were at the scene, as Lan Larison scored three touchdowns and Miles Hastings threw for 403 yards and three touchdowns in the victory for UCD.
Hastings has been a top-five FCS quarterback all season, completing 70% of his throws for 4,148 yards (FCS leader) and a 35:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Larison has an incredible 2,323 combined rushing and receiving yards with 23 total touchdowns this season. Five UCD pass-catchers (including Larison) have 500-plus receiving yards.
This offense is loaded with weapons.
However, UC Davis has a tough task ahead against a South Dakota team that boasts the third-best FCS scoring defense.
South Dakota Coyotes Betting Preview: Looking for a Bounce-Back Performance
The Coyotes come in after their worst defensive performance of the season last week and are very fortunate to have survived.
Playing a much weaker opponent from an inferior conference, it was stunning to see South Dakota so out of position in the secondary against Tarleton State. Its inability to put pressure on Tarleton quarterback Victor Gabalis told the story.
USD didn't record a sack for the first time this season (10 games with multiple sacks) and recorded one stop behind the line of scrimmage.
I'd imagine the focus this week revolves around ramping up the intensity and locking in on defense, as this performance was completely out of character for USD. That can't be repeated against this Big Sky opponent, or the Yotes' season will be over.
UC Davis vs South Dakota Pick & Prediction
This play will be as contrarian as it gets given the love in the market for UC Davis and the other groups that have made the Aggies a popular upset pick this week. I'm going to lay the points with South Dakota here.
Last week was a real wake-up call for the Yotes defensively. USD gave up nearly 100 more yards against Tarleton State than it had against any other opponent this season, and its inability to stop the pass was very uncharacteristic.
UC Davis relies so heavily on the production of Larison both running and receiving, but the Coyotes have the athletes in the defensive front seven to neutralize Larison’s production.
The Aggies are going to have to have several other players step up on the road in ways they're not accustomed to, which will be challenging in this road environment.
The USD offense has played outstanding football most of the season, scoring 40-plus points and accumulating over 500 yards of total offense in three of the last four games.
Quarterback Aidan Bouman has a 16:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and the duo of Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis is as good of a 1-2 punch in the backfield as there is in FCS.
USD ran for 296 yards last week on 7.6 yards per carry and has surpassed 250 yards on the ground six times this season.
The Yotes have been extremely efficient on offense, converting 45.5% of third-down attempts and cashing in for touchdowns on 34 of their 44 red-zone trips. While playing at a higher level recently, UCD has allowed opponents into the red zone 44 times this year and has given up over 400 yards in two straight weeks.
A concerning trend for UC Davis has been its tendency to get behind early in games, forcing it to play from behind. The Aggies have trailed in the second half and have needed to mount comebacks seven times this season.
I'd be concerned here if UC Davis gets down in this game and again has to rely on a second-half comeback. It's just not a sustainable formula for winning football games, especially as the competition gets better as we get deeper into the playoffs.
This is going to be a close game throughout, but the best unit on the field will still be the Coyotes defense. UC Davis is a great team with exceptional playmakers, but there's too much talent on the USD defense to allow a repeat performance of last week.
This defense will tighten things up and play up to its potential. I'll take South Dakota to grab a close win and cover.
Pick: South Dakota -4.5
UC Davis vs South Dakota Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Dakota Dome, Vermillion, SD |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
UC Davis heads to Vermillion on Saturday, Dec. 14 to face South Dakota at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UC Davis vs South Dakota Weather
