Oklahoma vs UCF Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-17.5 -110 | 67.5 -115o / -105u | -1000 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+17.5 -110 | 67.5 -115o / -105u | +625 |
Oklahoma looks to stay undefeated and keep its hopes of both a Big 12 Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance alive when it hosts UCF in Norman.
UCF is coming off a bye, but the last time it was in action, Kansas ran all over it for 399 rushing yards and 51 points. The Knights are on a three-game losing streak to open their inaugural Big 12 season and now they have to go play one of the best offenses in the country.
Gus Malzahn has had two weeks to get things sorted out, so we'll see if there's some type of response from UCF.
Oklahoma is also coming off a bye after beating its rival Texas two weeks ago to remain undefeated.
The schedule for the Sooners is really favorable — they currently don't face a ranked team for the remainder of the regular season — so it's important that they stay focused week in and week out to avoid getting tripped up before the Big 12 Championship.
Oklahoma vs UCF
Matchup Analysis
Oklahoma Sooners
OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel is now the second favorite to win the Heisman, and rightfully so, because he's been putting up some incredible numbers.
Gabriel is third in college football in EPA behind only Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels, is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and has Oklahoma fourth in Passing Success Rate.
He's been spreading the ball around too, as no Oklahoma receiver has more than 30 catches on the season.
This is a big revenge game. Not only for Gabriel — who is facing his former team — but also for offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby — who was with Gabriel at UCF. The principles of Lebby's offense is to play as fast of a tempo as possible, as Oklahoma currently sits 16th in the nation in seconds per play.
The rushing attack has struggled to get going for the Sooners, as it's only averaging 4.1 yards per carry. But if there was ever a front seven to find success against, it's UCF's.
The main reason why Oklahoma's offense has been so good is because of how efficient it's been in the opponents' territory. The Sooners are 13th in Finishing Drives, averaging 4.86 points per scoring opportunity.
UCF is 103rd in that same category defensively, so Oklahoma should be able to walk into the end zone once it crosses the Knights' 40-yard line.
Brent Venables has really turned around the Oklahoma defense, but let's be honest, the Sooners haven't really faced many top-tier offenses. Sure, the Sooners are 20th in Success Rate Allowed, but Texas is the only offense that they've played so far that's in the top 50 in EPA/Play.
They've been one of the best teams in the country at stopping opponents' runs at the line of scrimmage, but they continue to surrender big plays in the run game, ranking 85th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. That is a big problem against UCF.
UCF Knights
John Rhys Plumlee will get the start against Oklahoma on Saturday after being pulled from the Kansas game in the first quarter. It was very clear that he was struggling, and with UCF already down 24-0, Malzahn decided to try to avoid making the problem worse than it already is.
If Plumlee is healthy, he's an incredibly dynamic quarterback who can cause some problems for the Oklahoma defense.
Plumlee has really only played two games this season, but if we go back to last year, he ran for almost 1,000 yards and averaged 7.3 yards per carry.
JOHN RHYS PLUMLEE 67 YARD TD RUN!#AmericanFB x @UCF_Footballpic.twitter.com/Ic7EXx8NCb
— American Football (@American_FB) November 12, 2022
He's a decent thrower and loves to take deep shots down the field. In 2022, he had 19 Big Time Throws with 44% of his pass attempts being over 10+ yards. He was very successful in doing so as well, putting up a 91.8 PFF passing grade on throws over 20+ yards in the air.
However, UCF's ground game is its best chance at finding success in this contest.
Plumlee is going to carry the ball a lot, but RJ Harvey is an incredible running back who's putting up some fantastic numbers this season. Harvey ran for 133 yards on only 16 carries against Kansas two weeks ago and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on the season.
UCF also has a big-play back in Johnny Richardson, who's averaging an absurd 8.3 yards per carry on 53 attempts.
Big plays in the run game are going to be key for UCF because while Oklahoma's defense has been incredible this season, it's been vulnerable to explosive rushing plays.
The Knights' defense has been exposed now that we're in Big 12 play. The last three games against Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas, the Knights have given up a combined 131 points and 1,472 yards.
The main problem is they cannot stop anybody on the ground. Like I already mentioned, Kansas ran for 399 yards against them. Kansas State also ran for 281 yards. On the season, UCF is 123rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 121st in Defensive Line Yards, so the Sooners should have a field day on the ground.
The Knights have been decent against the pass, but they haven't faced a passing attack or quarterback at the level of Gabriel, and they still only rank 74th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Oklahoma match up statistically:
UCF Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 81 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 11 | |
Oklahoma Offense vs. UCF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 123 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 103 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 91 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 29 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 33 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 50 | 76 |
| Middle 8 | 30 | 23 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.4 (19) | 23.9 (16) |
| Rush Rate | 59.9% (18) | 53.5% (54) |
Oklahoma vs UCF
Betting Predictions, Picks
The pace of this game is going to be incredibly fast, with both teams ranking inside the top 20 in seconds per play.
Oklahoma has so many advantages offensively, but its ability to finish off scoring drives against a very bad UCF defense is going to be the key to covering a big number.
Even though UCF has given up a massive amount of points and yards in Big 12 play, its offense has still been efficient and effective, ranking 18th in Quality Drives.
The Knights will be able to break off some big plays in the running game on Saturday, and having their star quarterback back healthy and active is a massive boost to their offense after he basically missed the last four games.
So, with a fast pace and both offenses having advantages, I like the Over.
