The UCF Knights (2-0) are set to start their second Big 12 campaign with a road trip to Fort Worth against the TCU Horned Frogs (2-0 so far this 2024 season as well). Saturday's game is scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET and is airing live on FOX and streaming on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app, and other streaming platforms.
TCU is a consensus 2.5-point favorite (-2.5) at home against UCF. The over/under is 62 points at most books, although you can find both 61.5 and 62.5 in the market currently. TCU is a -145 favorite to win outright, with UCF a +120 underdog on the moneyline to pull off the slight upset.
UCF is coming into this game off of a 45-14 win over Sam Houston State in Week 2, a game where the Golden Knights covered as 21.5-point favorites. TCU, meanwhile, beat Long Island University 45-0 last weekend, although the Horned Frogs came up just shy of covering the 45.5-point spread.
Read on for my UCF vs. TCU predictions below and my college football picks and predictions for Week 3 on Saturday.
UCF vs. TCU Odds, Picks, Predictions
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 62 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 62 -110o / -110u | -142 |
- UCF vs. TCU spread: TCU -2.5
- UCF vs. TCU over/under: 62 points
- UCF vs. TCU moneyline: UCF +120 · TCU -142
- UCF vs. TCU pick: UCF to win outright (Bet to -125)
My TCU vs. UCF best bet is on the UCF moneyline. This line has moved quite a bit, as TCU opened as a 3-point favorite before the odds completely flipped to UCF -3. Now, as we get closer to kickoff, we're back to having UCF as the underdog. The best line a few hours before the game starts is at ESPN BET.
Be sure to shop around using our live NCAAF odds page for all of your college football bets.
UCF Golden Knights vs. TCU Horned Frogs College Football
The Knights generated the second-best transfer portal class in the conference, bringing seasoned playmakers around an explosive backfield on offense.
Head coach Gus Malzahn was excited in Las Vegas during the conference media sessions, indicating this offense has a chance to look like the national title-winning team at Auburn in 2010.
The Knights have yet to break a sweat in 2024, beating New Hampshire and Sam Houston by a combined score of 102-17.
TCU is looking to reclaim the magic that got the Horned Frogs to the national title game two seasons ago.
Head coach Sonny Dykes changed defensive schemes with a new coordinator, producing two victories thus far in the season. The offense was stagnant against Long Island and Stanford, but the 4-2-5 defensive numbers have massively improved from the 2023 version of the 3-3-5 defense.
Amon G. Carter Stadium will see either team's first conference victory, which is crucial in a Big 12 conference where more than half of the teams have a realistic chance of making the championship game.
UCF Football
In a conference loaded with rush-first attacks from Kansas State and Oklahoma State, UCF is plowing over the competition with high talent in skill positions.
Quarterback KJ Jefferson transferred to Orlando after spending his entire career at an Arkansas program befuddled in turmoil. The sixth-year senior has had great success running a heavy amount of inside zone with a running back tandem that would start at any other program in the Big 12.
The Knights have a heavy tendency toward the run with the Malzahn wildcat, attempting to pass on just 30% of snaps thus far.
Jefferson has met career numbers in a limited 29 passing attempts, but the bread and butter of the offense comes with the inside zone.
Portal additions of Myles Montgomery and Peny Boone at running back would suffice as starters for most teams, but most teams don't have RJ Harvey.
The senior has already tallied six rushing touchdowns while keeping one of the highest rates of elusiveness in FBS. Seven of the running backs' 30 rushing attempts have gone for at least 15 yards, averaging a career-high of 4.7 yards after first contact. UCF ranks in the top 10 in numerous rushing categories, from Line Yards to Success Rate.
The addition of Ted Roof as the new co-defensive coordinator has yet to be tested. Addison Williams and the 3-3-5 defense are currently top-20 in tackling and allowing Quality Drives.
The numbers are untested against the offenses of Sam Houston and New Hampshire, but the returns have been solid in all areas except the opponent pass.
UCF ranks 96th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed after allowing Sam Houston to generate a 52% Success Rate and 8.4 yards per play in Passing Downs.
Although safety Sheldon Arnold II and cornerback Mac McWilliams recorded interceptions against Sam Houston, cornerback Braeden Marshall and strong safety Quadric Bullard pulled two of the lowest coverage grades on the team.
TCU Football
TCU was losing to Stanford at halftime in the season opener. With new faces on each side of the ball, the Horned Frogs found consistency in the second half by outscoring the Cardinal, 24-10, to seal the victory.
The new defensive line stuffed Stanford on 16-of-33 rushing attempts, well above the national average of 30%. TCU allowed Stanford to gain just 34% of available yards, limiting trips to the extended red zone.
The upgraded defensive performance lasted through Week 2 in total domination of the Long Island offense. The Sharks never attempted to score through 10 punts, a turnover on downs and an interception just outside the red zone.
Linebacker Johnny Hodges leads the team in tackles, while San Diego State transfer edge Cooper McDonald leads in pressures. Through two games, the defense has carried the water statistically versus an offense that has struggled to run the ball or maintain blocks in passing attempts.
Josh Hoover continues to be the signal-caller for the Frogs, tallying four touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Hoover has yet to improve accuracy issues from a season ago, ranking 67th in on-target rate.
With an average depth of target sinking to 7.1 yards, the bulk of the production has come from receivers Savion Williams and Jack Bech. Each target is well over 2.6 yards per route run through a combined 34 targets.
Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles runs a balanced offense, but inside and outside zone read option haven't had any success in creating chunk plays. TCU ranks 46th in run blocking, but the number falls outside of the top 75 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Center James Brockermeyer and left tackle Bless Harris have provided two of the lowest run-blocking grades in the offensive line two-deep depth chart.
Against the inferior rush defenses of Long Island and Stanford, the Horned Frogs averaged 6.2 yards to gain on third-down attempts.
How to Watch UCF vs. TCU: Start Time, TV Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
TCU vs. UCF starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game is on TV on FOX and is streaming on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app, and other streaming platforms.
UCF vs. TCU Pick: Bet UCF to Win Outright
The handicap for this Big 12 opener is based on two aspects: UCF's ability to run the ball and TCU's ability to pass downfield.
The Knights will field one of the most vicious rushing attacks in Power 4 football, as highlighted by Harvey. The Horned Frogs have only seen a dozen snaps of inside zone read so far this season, but the numbers against Stanford may indicate explosives are coming.
The Cardinal were stuffed on nearly half of their attempts, but in the 17 attempts that were not, Stanford averaged 4.7 yards per attempt.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels averaged 5.1 yards on 17 rushing attempts while gaining 42 yards after first contact against the TCU defensive front.
With an even split of designed yards versus scramble, the TCU interior struggled to contain a running quarterback. Edge Nana Osafo-Mensah and interior tackles Markis Deal and Caleb Fox have produced poor run defense grades, producing just four tackles in a combined 102 snaps.
The UCF offense is expected to create first downs and explosives, but the Knights' secondary will be under a microscope against Hoover and his favorite targets.
Brandon Adams leads the team in forced incompletions, while McWilliams and Arnold are the two highest-graded coverage defenders on the team.
UCF ranks 46th in on-target rate allowed, indicating there could be success in limiting a TCU offense that has no success in creating drives through the rush.
The Knights run a strict Cover 3 defense against the opposing pass, as Hoover continues to post pedestrian numbers and no explosives against secondaries that use this specific coverage.
Action Network's projection makes UCF a favorite of six points on the road in Fort Worth.
TCU has had no success against early competition in establishing the run, thanks to an underperforming offensive line.
Look for Jefferson and Harvey to dominate the line of scrimmage with an inside zone read — an area the Frogs have struggled to defend between the tackles.
Pick: UCF ML (Bet to -125 or UCF -3)
TCU vs. UCF Betting Trends
- 57% of bets and 78% of the money are on UCF to cover the spread.
- 85% of bets and 76% of the money are on the under.
- 78% of bets and 81% of the money are on TCU to win outright on the moneyline.
UCF vs. TCU Weather
