Oregon and UCLA have met 71 times, most of which came when both programs were in the Pac-12. With both programs joining the Big Ten this summer, the 72nd meeting in the series will be the first in their new conference.
Oregon has dominated the series of late, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Even in Pasadena, the Ducks are heavy road favorites, indicating oddsmakers expect that trend to continue.
If so, the Ducks' offense will likely be led by Dillon Gabriel and Jordan James, while Ethan Garbers will look to help the Bruins keep pace.
Let's get to the UCLA vs. Oregon odds, picks and predictions in my same-game parlay.
UCLA vs. Oregon Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24 -110 | 53.5 -115o / -105u | +1200 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24 -110 | 53.5 -115o / -105u | -2500 |
UCLA vs. Oregon Picks, Parlay, Predictions
- Dillon Gabriel 275+ Alt Passing Yards (-162)
- Ethan Garbers Over 180.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Jordan James 80+ Alt Rushing Yards (-174)
- Oregon Team Total Over 40.5 Points (-122)
Parlay Odds: +604 via FanDuel
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
SGP Picks #1 & 2: Dillon Gabriel 275+ Passing Yards & Ethan Garbers Over 180.5 Passing Yards
With Ethan Garbers and Dillon Gabriel in their fourth and sixth collegiate seasons, respectively, both have been around the college game for a long time.
Whether it was at UCF, Oklahoma, or now Oregon, Gabriel has always been productive. Dating back to last season with the Sooners, he has thrown for 275 passing yards in six of his last 10 games.
This season with Oregon, he has thrown for 275 yards in two of the Ducks' first three games. The miss came against Boise State when he threw for 243 yards. However, in that game, the Ducks scored two special teams touchdowns, so it's reasonable to assume that he would have gotten 32 more yards in a tight game.
This week, he gets a Bruins defense allowing 295.3 passing yards per game, which is 127th in the nation.
The Bruins have had a couple of tough assignments in a row, getting Kurtis Rourke and Garrett Nussmeier the last two weeks. They each threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns.
Gabriel is +116 for 300 passing yards, but with the Ducks being such a large favorite, he may get to 275 and then sit in the fourth quarter. He threw for 291 yards in the Ducks' blowout victory over Oregon State.
That game script also would impact Garbers if the Bruins are down big most of the game. Garbers has also cleared this line in two of his team's first three games this season. However, in the two games he went over, he shattered the line, with 272 passing yards against Hawaii and 281 yards against LSU.
Oregon's pass defense has been stingy so far, allowing 164.7 passing yards per game, though Idaho's Jack Layne (168) and Oregon State's Gevani McCoy (172) both were within a first down of this number.
Garbers is attempting 32.3 passes per game on 7.1 yards per attempt this season. To get to 181 yards on his season YPA, he will need about 26 attempts, which should be in play if UCLA is forced to abandon the run because of the score.
SGP Pick #3: Jordan James 80+ Rushing Yards
Surprisingly, Oregon didn't get a lot of traction on the ground in its first two games, averaging just 118 rushing yards per game. It found much more success against the rival Beavers with 240 yards and four rushing touchdowns.
Regardless, Jordan James has been productive in his first season as the lead back.
James has run for 283 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry. With games of 95, 102, and 86 rushing yards, he has reached this number in each of his first three games. He also ran for at least 80 yards in three games last year when he was playing behind Bucky Irving.
UCLA has yet to allow an 80-yard rusher this season, and it's also allowing 92.3 total rushing yards per game. However, Josh Williams led LSU's committee with 62 yards and a touchdown in a game in which pass-first LSU had Nussmeier attempt 44 passes.
Oregon has been more balanced the last two weeks, particularly against Oregon State, when it ran 27 pass plays compared to 32 running plays.
James has received double-digit carries in each of the Ducks' first three games. If the Ducks are playing in front as expected, he will likely receive a heavy workload once again.
SGP Pick #4: Oregon Team Total Over 40.5 Points
Oregon comes into the week averaging just about 462 yards of total offense per game. If the Gabriel and James legs hit, they will have at least 355 total yards, which will also likely put them well on their way to scoring 40 points again.
The Ducks have reached this line just once so far, but they are averaging 43 points over their last two games. Meanwhile, UCLA has allowed 38 points per game in its two games against Power Four opponents, including 42 points to Indiana.
Oregon may get 42 points as well, so I like this line up to 41.5. However, at 40.5, we have a little buffer if there's a missed extra point or two-point conversion. The Ducks are known for going for two after their first touchdown.
Additionally, Oregon has scored on all 10 of its red-zone possessions this season with a 70% touchdown rate. Conversely, UCLA has allowed a score on each of its 12 red-zone defensive possessions, with 66% resulting in touchdowns.
If those trends continue, the Ducks will score 41 points this week and likely more.
