The Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) take on the UCLA Bruins (1-3, 0-2 Big Ten) in Beaver Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 5 at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Penn State enters this Week 6 contest as a -28 favorite on the spread, while the total sits at 46.5.
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Penn State vs. UCLA predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
UCLA vs Penn State Prediction
- UCLA vs Penn State Pick: Penn State -28
My Penn State vs. UCLA best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UCLA vs Penn State Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 / -110 | +1400 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 / -110 | -3000 |
- UCLA vs Penn State Point Spread: UCLA +27.5
- UCLA vs Penn State Over/Under: 46.5 Total Points
- UCLA vs Penn State Moneyline: UCLA +1400 · Penn State -3000
UCLA vs Penn State Preview
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview: From Bad to Worse
It has been a disastrous start for new UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster. After making a splash at his first Big Ten media day by proudly announcing that UCLA is "from Los Angeles," Foster's team has not made any headlines in a positive way since then.
The Bruins opened the season with an ugly 16-13 comeback win over Hawaii, but since then, the wheels have fallen off. The team has now lost three straight games, all by three scores or more, to Indiana, LSU and Oregon in successive weeks.
There are no weeks off in the Big Ten, and UCLA is finding that out quickly. It now heads into Happy Valley to take on another top-10 team in one of the most intimidating environments in all of college football.
Offensively, it has been as ugly as it sounds for the Bruins. This is one of the worst offenses in college football at any level.
The team ranks 133rd in Rush Success, 132nd in Line Yards, 121st in Pass Success and 121st in Finishing Drives.
To make matters worse, the Penn State defense is eighth against the run and fifth in Havoc. Expect plenty of negative plays forced by the Nittany Lions in this one.
UCLA has not topped 17 points in a game yet this season. Its lead rusher, TJ Harden, is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. The Bruins have just one rushing touchdown on the year, and as a whole, the team runs for just 2.5 yards per carry.
Nothing will come easy against Penn State.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Plenty of Balance
Penn State will be licking its chops in this one.
Coming off a 14-point victory over Illinois, which was previously undefeated, the Nittany Lions still feel like they have something to prove. After letting Illinois score on its first possession, Penn State's defense was dominant the rest of the way.
Illinois went 0-for-7 on its final seven drives, with four punts, a missed field goal and two turnovers.
All in all, that game could have been much uglier than it was. Penn State dominated the time of possession battle (34 minutes to 26) and outgained the Illini, 376-219.
There aren't many teams in the country as good on both sides of the field as Penn State. Its defense is as strong as they come, especially against the run, but the Nittany Lions are no slouch offensively either.
The team ranks third in Pass Success and 12th in Rush Success, possessing the ability to beat opponents either through the air or on the ground.
They have two dominant backs in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, and their ability to interchange them is what makes them special. Neither ever gets tired, and their fresh legs combined to run 34 times for 196 yards and two tocuhdowns against Illinois.
UCLA's run defense ranks just 91st in the country, so Penn State will be able to control this game from start to finish behind the legs of Allen and Singleton.
Penn State vs UCLA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and UCLA match up statistically:
UCLA Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 133 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 29 | |
| Quality Drives | 80 | 14 | |
Penn State Offense vs. UCLA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 106 | |
| Quality Drives | 9 | 130 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 72 | 55 |
| PFF Coverage | 93 | 46 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 56 | 96 |
| Middle 8 | 35 | 19 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.5 (127) | 29.2 (107) |
| Rush Rate | 43% (132) | 66% (9) |
UCLA vs Penn State Pick & Prediction
Given both teams' differing trajectories here, it's easy to see this one getting ugly.
UCLA has struggled against good teams, and Penn State may not just be good — it may be great.
The Nittany Lions' balance will show here, and the Bruins' struggles at stopping the run will likely lead to this one getting out of hand fast, even if Penn State goes conservative.
Take the Nittany Lions to cover in a blowout win.
Pick: Penn State -28 (-110)
How to Watch UCLA vs Penn State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, State College, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
UCLA vs Penn State Betting Trends
UCLA has landed 67% of the bets and 66% of the money.
The over has taken 81% of tickets but has generated only 57% of the cash.
UCLA vs Penn State Weather
