The UConn Huskies (8-4) take on the UNC Tar Heels (6-6, 3-5 ACC) in the Fenway Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28. Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. ET on ESPN.
The Prodigal Son returns. Bill Belichick is back stalking the sidelines of a New England football field.
OK, so it won’t be in any coaching capacity just yet, but it is quite a coincidence that North Carolina’s first game since announcing the hiring of the former Patriots coach takes place in Boston’s Fenway Park.
While Belichick won’t have any official coaching duties on Saturday, his presence will undoubtedly cast a significant shadow on a Tar Heel program undergoing widespread change. The Tar Heels (6-6) have many players exiting and entering the roster via the transfer portal, yet they are still small favorites.
Meanwhile, Connecticut (8-4) is on pace to complete one of its best seasons in recent memory. This year already marks the first winning season in head coach Jim Mora’s three-year tenure, and if the Huskies aren’t careful, conferences might move toward adding more than just the UConn basketball program.
The Fenway Bowl is a game of change versus stability. Which team is more ready to hit a walk-off home run into the offseason? North Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite on the spread with a 52.5-point over/under.
Read on for our UConn vs North Carolina predictions and college football picks for the Fenway Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
UConn Huskies vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Picks
- UConn vs. North Carolina Pick: UConn +2.5
My UNC vs. UConn best bet is on the Huskies to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UConn vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
UConn Huskies vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Fenway Bowl Betting Preview
Why UConn Can Cover: Hunting for Ninth Victory
It doesn’t feel all that long ago that UConn was the butt of every college football joke, wondering if the Huskies could cash the over on a 1.5 season-win-total bet.
But as 2024 draws to a close, Connecticut is firmly in sight of a ninth win — a number the program hasn’t reached since 2007.
Unlike UConn’s Fenway Bowl counterpart, the Huskies' regular-season starting depth chart is relatively intact. Quarterback Joe Fagnano will command the offense and should have his top two targets to throw to. Skyler Bell is expected to play despite entering the transfer portal.
The Huskies aren’t quite as fortunate at the running back position where they’ll be without one of the faces of their three-headed rushing attack. Durrell Robinson left for greener pastures on the Plains, but UConn will still have Camryn Edwards and Jayden Brown — the duo has combined for over 1,300 yards rushing and nine touchdowns this season.
However, the biggest boon for the offense is the status of its tackles. Chase Lundt and Valentin Senn have been on the NFL opt-out watch list, but as of this writing, they are good to go for bowl action.
UConn’s starting defense, which finished inside the top 60 nationally in total defense and scoring defense, should only be down starting corner Malcolm Bell. That’s a noticeable loss for a secondary that struggled at times, but the Tar Heels are far from one of the most explosive passing offenses in the nation.
Why North Carolina Can Cover: Roster Turnover Woes
As exciting as the Bill Belichick hiring is for the North Carolina fan base, there’s still one game to go before the Tar Heels can officially hand the reigns over to the Super Bowl-winningest head coach.
In Mack Brown’s place before Belichick takes over will be Freddy Kitchens. Kitchens is finishing his second season as the team’s running game coordinator and tight end coach. And while turnover on the roster has already begun, the UNC coaching staff remains whole aside from offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, who took the same job at Michigan.
From a player personnel standpoint, the most significant blow to the UNC offense comes from Omarion Hampton’s NFL opt-out. The running back finished second in the nation with 1,660 rushing yards and scored 15 times on the ground. The production drop-off in his wake is immense, as Davion Gause is the only other Tar Heel with more than 100 total rushing yards on the season (314).
Compounding matters is UNC’s offensive line. The Tar Heels will already be down two starters in this position group, and All-American guard Willie Lampkin is another one to monitor for an NFL opt-out.
UNC at least has quarterback Jacolby Criswell, granted he finished last in the ACC in completion percentage (58%) among qualified passers.
The UNC defense struggled all season to stop the run, finishing the year ranked 10th or worse in the ACC in run defense and tackles for loss. With the NFL opt-outs of defensive end Kaimon Rucker and defensive tackle Jahvaree Ritzie, that front seven will likely perform even worse against UConn.
UConn vs North Carolina Picks, Best Bets
It’s all too easy to hop on the Belichick bandwagon, but the reality is that the changes he will implement and the talent he could recruit have yet to arrive in Chapel Hill.
The Tar Heels have been hit hard by player departures in the trenches on both sides of the ball, let alone the focal point of their offense in running back Omarion Hampton.
While down its second-leading rusher, UConn has been effective running the ball all season and should find success against a North Carolina front seven that couldn’t bottle up the run when its roster was whole.
As long as UConn offensive tackles Chase Lundt and Valentin Senn don’t change course and remain available for this game, I’ll happily take the Huskies and the points.
Pick: UConn +2.5
UConn vs. North Carolina Channel, How To Watch, Start Time, Location
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 11 a.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
UConn vs North Carolina will be played at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on Saturday, Dec. 28 at 11 a.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN.
UConn vs. North Carolina Betting Trends
UConn vs. North Carolina Weather
