In one of the more shocking developments of the 2024 college football season, the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks are 5-1 entering their matchup against the 3-4 South Alabama Jaguars.
In most preseason polls, the Warhawks were projected to finish toward the bottom of the Sunbelt conference, and now they are one victory away from earning bowl eligibility. They are also 3-1 in SunBelt play.
The Jags enter the matchup with a 2-1 conference record and hope to get back into the thick of the race.
Oddsmakers have the Jags as 7.5-point home favorites over the Warhawks. The total is set at 44.5. The game kicks off at 5 p.m. and can be streamed live on ESPN+.
Let's get into my UL Monroe vs South Alabama predictions and college football picks for their Week 9 NCAAF game on Saturday, Oct. 26.
UL Monroe vs South Alabama Picks, Prediction
My UL Monroe vs South Alabama best bet is on the Jaguars to cover as 7-point favorites at bet365 Sportsbook.
UL Monroe vs South Alabama Odds, Spread, Lines
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -280 |
- ULM vs South Alabama Point Spread: ULM +7 (-110) · South Alabama -7 (-110)
- ULM vs South Alabama Total: Over/Under 45
- ULM vs South Alabama Moneyline: ULM +230 · South Alabama -280
UL Monroe Football vs South Alabama Football Preview
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Betting Preview: Paper Tigers?
The Warhawks offense exploded for 38 points before their bye week at home against Southern Mississippi.
I meant it when I mentioned that nobody expected the Warhawks to be 5-1 at this point. But it is time to step back into reality.
The handicap focus in this matchup is evaluating the Warhawks' legitimacy — determining whether their success thus far is primarily due to a soft schedule.
The Warhawks rank 114th nationally in strength of schedule. To make matters worse, they have dealt with a quarterback change, going from General Booty to Aidan Armenta.
Neither quarterback has impressive stats, but they've been efficient on the ground. Regardless, the Warhawks rank 93rd nationally in EPA per Pass, which should sound off alarm bells considering their strength of schedule.
They are inefficient through the air and rely on their defense to carry them through most games. Although they like to run the ball more than pass, they rank 105th in EPA per Run and 106th in average third-down distance.
Their offense is constantly behind the chains, which could be better for their future success. The offense ranks 132nd in Success Rate (33%).
They've been much more vital defensively. This is their team's strength, but we must wonder if it is legitimate.
Given their opponents thus far, they've still been gashed on the ground and allowed a 41% success rate on third downs. The secondary has been excellent, and it is massive going up against a strong Jags passing attack.
The defense is above average, but it is tough to label their unit any higher than that because of the schedule they've faced thus far. Not to mention, their rush defense is in for a rude awakening against the Jags.
Even off of a bye, I have no interest in backing the Warhawks, given the offensive uncertainty and questions surrounding their secondary.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: Better Than Their Record
A player flying under the national radar in 2024 is quarterback Gio Lopez. Lopez has compiled terrific stats thus far, throwing 13 touchdowns to just one interception.
Lopez scored three rushing touchdowns on the ground, averaging over nine yards per carry. Seeing what he can do with his arms and legs is impressive.
It is a big game for Lopez and the Jags, especially since they can put themselves in a position to get back into the Sun Belt Conference race.
Folks, you'll have to tune in on Saturday evening if you have not seen the Jags offense.
It is frightening how much more efficient the Jags offense is compared to the Warhawks, and I expect South Alabama to score plenty on Saturday.
The Warhawks secondary poses a challenge, but we are about to determine how legitimate that defense is.
The offense has staggered a bit the last couple of weeks against Troy and Arkansas State, but those are two decent defenses. Week 9 is a terrific get-right spot for South Alabama's offense, especially against ULM's porous rush defense.
Many will argue that the Jags should have a better overall record, and I agree. The Jags rank eighth nationally in Success Rate (49%).
The dynamic duo of Kentrel Bullock and Fluff Bothwell has been electric. Both have over 65 carries this year, averaging over six yards per carry.
They rank seventh nationally in EPA per Game with 14.27 and sixth in total EPA, nearly eclipsing 100. They are primed to have success all afternoon against the Warhawks.
Defensively, they've struggled in the secondary, but that should not have an impact against a Warhawks offense. The Warhawks' philosophy on offense is extremely slow and run-heavy.
The good news is that the Jags' strength on defense is against the run, with a 34% Rush Success Rate allowed. The Warhawks offense has their hands full on Saturday, and it will be a dominant overall effort from the Jags.
How To Make College Football Picks For My UL Monroe vs South Alabama Prediction
The Jags are set up to dominate at home against the Warhawks.
Typically, I'd be willing to back a team off their bye week, but we should finally see the Warhawks exposed.
Yes, the Warhawks were blitzed by the Texas Longhorns earlier in the month, but now they are facing a conference opponent that is more on their level.
The Jags are a much sounder football team with an extreme offensive edge heading into the matchup.
Many people believe the Jags offense is a bit of a fraud, but I think they underestimate Troy and Arkansas State's defensive ability. South Alabama should dominate the time of possession, and its lethal ground attack should eat away at the Warhawks' defensive line.
I don't know how the Warhawks will score, especially considering the Jags' run defense has been excellent thus far.
It should be an ugly game, but the Jags should comfortably cover the number.
Pick: South Alabama -7 (-110, bet365) | Play to -9.5 (-110)
UL Monroe v South Alabama Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
ULM vs South Alabama will be played at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama, on Saturday, Oct. 26 at 5 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.
