The Boston College Eagles (5-5) host the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) on Saturday, Nov. 21 at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. The Game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on The CW.
Boston College has lost four of its past five and recently had to switch quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have ripped off three consecutive victories, beating Virginia and Florida State by a combined 51 points.
North Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite on the spread with a 55.5-point over/under.
Read on for my North Carolina vs Boston College predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 13 game.
North Carolina vs Boston College Prediction
- North Carolina vs. Boston College Pick: Boston College +3 or better
My North Carolina vs. Boston College best bet is on the Eagles with a field goal or better, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
North Carolina vs Boston College Odds
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | -140 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | +120 |
- North Carolina vs Boston College Point Spread: North Carolina -2.5 (-110) · Boston College +2.5 (-110)
- North Carolina vs Boston College Total: Over/Under 55
- North Carolina vs Boston College Moneyline: North Carolina -140 · Boston College +120
North Carolina vs Boston College Preview
I have to give a lot of credit to Mack Brown for leading this UNC team to an amazing in-season turnaround after many left him and this team dead following an embarrassing 70-50 home loss to JMU that started a string of four consecutive losses.
Not only did they lose four straight, but a few of those came in true gut-wrenching fashion, including games against Georgia Tech and Duke.
However, following a much-needed bye week, UNC rallied and rattled off three consecutive wins to clinch a bowl appearance.
So, what has changed?
The Heels have cleaned up some of the tackling and communication issues on defense. More importantly, Kaimon Rucker returned from injury and has been an absolute menace during UNC's three-game winning streak in which he piled up a whopping 18 pressures and six sacks.
The offense hasn't changed at all. It still feeds Omarian Hampton, who is one of the best backs in the country and would be getting much more national attention if not for Ashton Jeanty's historic season.
The passing attack remains a bit limited, although they don't ask Jacolby Criswell to do much. They also lost starting tight end Bryson Nesbit to a season-ending injury.
While I do applaud Brown and the Heels for their in-season turnaround, their three most recent victories came against an injury-ravaged Virginia team, Wake Forest and the corpse of Florida State. Not exactly a murderer's row of competition.
They will get a much stiffer test against a Boston College team that I expect to come out fired up at home with a chance to clinch its season-long goal of reaching bowl eligibility under first-year coach Bill O'Brien, who has done a tremendous job to date.
From a matchup perspective, Boston College has one of the more underrated run defenses in the country, ranking in the top 20 in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
The Eagles could also possibly get their leader in the middle back in linebacker Kam Arnold. They can do enough to contain Hampton, which cuts the head of the snake off of the UNC offense.
The weakness of this BC defense by far lies in the secondary, especially given some of the injuries it has dealt with.
Already without the injured Amari Jackson, O'Brien stated Max Tucker and Bryquice Brown are questionable, which would put more on true freshman Ashton McShane's plate. However, I have liked what I've seen from McShane so far.
Plus, it's not like UNC will light teams up through the air. The Heels rank 90th in Passing Success Rate, and while Criswell has an impressive 12:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he's thrown only seven Big-Time Throws to 11 Turnover-Worthy Plays.
There are some turnovers coming, especially if he can't just make easy downfield passes off of play-action.
North Carolina vs Boston College
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Carolina and Boston College match up statistically:
North Carolina Offense vs. Boston College Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 32 |  |
| Line Yards | 19 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 69 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 96 | |
Boston College Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 78 | |
| Quality Drives | 65 | 67 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 6 | 29 |
| PFF Coverage | 88 | 54 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 82 | 128 |
| Middle 8 | 50 | 91 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.8 (42) | 28.7 (106) |
| Rush Rate | 55% (43) | 65% (12) |
North Carolina vs Boston College Pick & Prediction
This is a good matchup for the BC defense, assuming Hampton just doesn't put on a cape, which he's certainly capable of doing. The only game this season where BC wasn't competitive came at Virginia Tech when Hokies back Bhayshul Tuten did just that with 266 rushing yards.
On the other side of the ball, BC has recently turned to Grayson James at quarterback after Thomas Castellanos left the program after getting benched in the Eagles' win over Syracuse two weeks ago.
While James will put the ball in harm's way at times, I actually think it's an upgrade to this specific offense, as James is a better fit for this particular scheme.
BC has recently found its offensive identity and ideal running back rotation that spearheads a power-rushing attack behind a very strong offensive line that ultimately sets up some play-action shots downfield for James, who's more capable than Castellanos in that department.
That formula should work against a UNC defense that ranks 97th in EPA per Rush and can get lost in the sauce on the back end. BC should have success using some misdirection in this particular matchup as well.
Plus, how motivated will UNC be for a windy noon kick in Chestnut Hill? The bye potentially squashed its momentum and has already clinched a bowl. It's also worth mentioning that the Tar Heels are 5-11 ATS as a road favorite in league play under Coach Brown.
Give me the desperate Eagles, who can win this game in the trenches at home.
Pick: Boston College +3 or better
North Carolina vs Boston College Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | The CW |
North Carolina vs Boston College will be played at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on The CW.
