UNC Tar Heels vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
Editor's Note: Minnesota running back Darius Taylor will not play against North Carolina, according to Action Network's Brett McMurphy.
For the second time in history, the North Carolina Tar Heels and Minnesota Golden Gophers will face off in an early battle of supremacy between the Big Ten and ACC — and we have a North Carolina vs. Minnesota prediction.
The first iteration between the two programs came last year in a Week 3 showdown in Chapel Hill that saw the home team easily cover a touchdown spread.
UNC finished 8-5 (4-4 ACC) in 2023, while Minnesota ended up going 6-7 (3-6 Big Ten). Now, they'll enter a new season looking to get off to a fast start.
Both teams will field new faces at the quarterback position this time around, while the Tar Heels unleash one of the best running backs in college football.
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck was rumored to flirt with the UCLA job after a tumultuous season that ended with five regular season wins and a surprising invite to the Quick Lane Bowl.
Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi moved on after a long stint with Fleck, giving way to a former FCS assistant coach of the year in his first Power Four role in Corey Hetherman.
On the other side, North Carolina head coach Mack Brown made a change on his coaching staff. Former Temple and Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins is back to his roots as defensive coordinator and is expected to lead the Tar Heels with a nickel package with an emphasis on stopping explosives.
So, where does the betting value lie on Thursday? Let's dive into the UNC vs. Minnesota odds and take a look.
UNC vs Minnesota Prediction
- UNC vs Minnesota Pick: UNC ML -130 or Better
My North Carolina vs. Minnesota best bet is on the Tar Heels to win outright, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UNC vs Minnesota Preview
When North Carolina Has the Ball
The days of Drake Maye under center for the Tar Heels have come to an end. Brown made a decision on the quarterback position by announcing that both graduate transfer Max Johnson and sophomore holdover Conner Harrell will share playing time against Minnesota.
While Harrell’s history is limited to just seven dropbacks, Johnson brings four years of experience with 788 passing attempts from LSU and Texas A&M.
Johnson, a southpaw quarterback, has 29 big-time throws to 40 turnover-worthy plays in his career behind a number of offensive lines that failed in pass protection.
Johnson saw 100 pressures in 221 passing attempts a season ago, along with 152 pressures from his 2021 offensive line at LSU.
He'll be in familiar territory again with an inexperienced North Carolina offensive line that returns less than 10 career starts outside of center Willie Lampkin.
The good news for each quarterback is the weapons the Heels will field at the skill positions.
Wideout JJ Jones and slot Nate McCollum return after combining for 122 targets. They'll lead a receiver group that returns seven of the top eight from a season ago.
In that backfield, running back Omarion Hampton has the ability to take over the game despite the expected drop in offensive line production.
The junior created 63 missed tackles while averaging a whopping 4.4 yards after first contact last season. North Carolina ranked 94th in first contact by the defense but finished top-25 in broken tackles created thanks in part to Hampton's elusiveness.
A lot of Omarion Hampton's yards come after contact. He is a physical downhill runner. He's listed at 220, but runs like he's 250. pic.twitter.com/eP7HQrEGh3
— Brian Maafi (@BmaafiNFL) August 21, 2024
The Gophers will have a new defense under Hetherman, the former James Madison defensive coordinator. The new coach will maintain a 3-3-5 scheme that runs minimal blitz, looking to play a base defense that needs to improve in limiting explosives both on the ground and through the air.
The biggest issue for the Minnesota defense is a lack of Havoc and efficiency at all three levels.
The stiff pass rush should continue from a defensive line that includes 53 pressures from edge players Jah Joyner and Danny Striggow, but a lack of competent rush defenders will hamper the Gophers' ability to stop Hampton.
Additionally, the secondary is expected to finish as the worst unit in the Big Ten after losing safety Tyler Nubin.
When Minnesota Has the Ball
Fleck did well in the portal to land New Hampshire quarterback Max Brosmer, who led the FCS in passing with more than 3,000 yards and 29 passing touchdowns.
However, a closer look at the numbers indicates Minnesota may not be explosive through the air. Brosmer threw beyond 20 yards on just 9.5% of his 461 attempts.
With just 200 yards from designed rushing attempts in four years at the FCS level, Brosmer is not expected to be a factor in Minnesota's bread-and-butter run concept of outside zone.
Transfer to watch in the Big Ten? @CoachNeuheisel: Dillon Gabriel@JonesN4mo: Aidan Chiles@RandyCrossFB: Max Brosmer@AaronTaylorCFB: Nyland Green pic.twitter.com/ndMA7ExTjP
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) August 9, 2024
Fleck runs one of the heaviest rush rates outside of the service academies. Minnesota ran the ball on 61% of snaps last season but fell outside the top 40 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Luckily for the Gophers, they return every starter on the offensive line except for their center.
Run blocking will be critical for sophomore running back Darius Taylor, who was limited last season with an injury. The Quick Lane Bowl MVP flashed in five regular-season games, recording 3.7 yards after contact while going over 10 yards 15% of the time.
Swiss Army knife receiver Daniel Jackson also returns after lining up all over the field in 2023. He's a threat who hauled in eight touchdowns and posted a massive 2.5 yards per route run.
The Gopher offensive will be the first to see Collins' defense at UNC. The former head coach is tasked with improving a stop unit that was horrific in stopping the run and generating Havoc.
Collins runs multiple fronts while exclusively showing a nickel package with Cover 3 and quarters to stop explosives.
Edge Kaimon Rucker and linebacker Power Echols return to the defense after receiving two of the best run-stopping grades on the roster, per PFF.
Nose tackle Kevin Hester Jr. will be in a full-time role on the interior and also graded highly against the run in creating 13 stops. The Heels are well-equipped to stop the run while also maintaining a top-40 rank in Defensive Finishing Drives.
UNC vs Minnesota Pick: Back Heels on Moneyline?
Opening games have never been kind to Fleck in terms of covering. He has gone 2-5 against the spread in season openers since 2017.
Brosmer is a fantastic pick-up from the FCS ranks who will look to get familiar with targets in short range, but the bulk of Minnesota's offense will come behind Taylor and the ground game.
While Minnesota is not expected to increase a rank of 117th in big-play rate, the Gophers offense has always been one of the more disciplined with a top-25 rank in Havoc Allowed.
However, the biggest issue for the Gophers is UNC's defensive interior, as Hester and middle linebacker Amare Campbell are two of the top run stuffers on the Tar Heels' roster. Hester will plug the hole over a new Minnesota center, while Campbell — one of UNC's highest-graded rush defenders in limited action last season — steps up behind him.
It's worth noting that Minnesota's offense loves to run in between the tackles. It ran the ball up the middle 240 times last season compared to just 111 to the left side of the line.
While Brosmer will contribute to a rank of 106th in third-down conversions, don't expect many big plays from the Gophers offense.
With an Action Network projection that favors North Carolina, look for the Heels to take the opening road game in a tough "Gold Out" environment.
Pick: UNC ML -130 or Better
North Carolina vs Minnesota Betting Trends
- The Tar Heels are receiving 51% of tickets on the spread but have generated only 45% of the money.
- The over has taken 57% of the bets and landed 60% of the money.
How to Watch North Carolina vs Minnesota Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, Aug. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
North Carolina vs Minnesota Weather
