We head to Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, where the Boise State Broncos (5-1, 2-0 MWC) will take on the UNLV Rebels (6-1, 2-0) in a Mountain West battle.
The Broncos enjoyed a nice trip to Honolulu, caught some rays, and then stomped on the Rainbow Warriors, 28-7, in their last outing.
As if it should be a surprise, Ashton Jeanty ran for 217 yards and found the end zone. Maddux Madsen also had a good game, completing 17-of-25 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns.
UNLV’s Cinderella story continues after it defeated Oregon State, 33-25, last week.
Hajj-Malik Williams has taken command of this program after Matthew Sluka left in the middle of the season, and it’s like the Rebels never missed a beat.
Williams threw for 196 yards and a touchdown while running for 78 yards with two rushing touchdowns his last time out.
Let’s dive into some UNLV vs. Boise State picks in my +375 weekly same-game parlay at BetMGM.
UNLV vs. Boise State Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 64.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 64.5 -105o / -115u | -165 |
- UNLV vs. Boise State Point Spread: UNLV +3.5 · Boise State -3.5
- UNLV vs. Boise State Over/Under: 64.5
- UNLV vs. Boise State Moneyline: UNLV -165 · Boise State +140
UNLV vs. Boise State Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- UNLV +3.5
- Over 64.5
- Ashton Jeanty Anytime Touchdown
- Ashton Jeanty 150+ Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +375
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Spread: UNLV +3.5
This is going to be a really intriguing matchup between two leaders in the Mountain West.
Usually, when these two programs square off, the Broncos win convincingly, as they've won the last seven meetings. However, this is a different season, and the Rebels are running to the top.
While the Broncos have done well in the standings, they haven’t been very good defensively — especially against the run, where they rank 119th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 118th in PPA.
With UNLV’s propensity to run, particularly with Williams at quarterback, that opens the door for the Rebels.
I also expect the passing defense to struggle. In Passing Down metrics, Boise State is 129th in Explosiveness allowed, 95th in Success Rate allowed and 118th in PPA.
Williams is more of a runner than a thrower, but he can still sling it. The defense that Boise State offers should open a lot of doors for the Rebels.
Also, factor in that UNLV is 5-2 against the spread, whereas the Broncos are 3-3, and it seems like a solid play.
Over/Under: Over 64.5
Both of these programs love to get after it on the scoresheet.
With Jeanty being the top threat on the Broncos, at this rate, you have to expect him to get or push for at least 100 rushing yards — but we’ll get to that later.
Boise State is 6-1 when hitting the over, and UNLV is 4-3. Not only that, but Boise has hit over 64.5 five times this season, while UNLV has gone over that number four times.
Player Props: Ashton Jeanty Over 150 Rushing Yards & Anytime Touchdown
There’s a reason why Jeanty is the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy. He’s putting up astounding numbers, something we haven’t seen in college football in a long time.
The only time he was limited to under 150 yards was against Portland State. During that game, he got taken out early and rushed only 11 times for a mere 127 yards. He’s different from the rest of the other running backs.
UNLV isn’t horrible against the run, but I wouldn’t say it’s a run-stopping powerhouse. The Rebels rank 51st in Rush Success Rate allowed, 85th in PPA allowed and 71st in Explosiveness allowed.
Compare that to Boise State ranking first in both PPA and explosiveness in the FBS, and that could be dangerous.
I understand that 150 is a big number, but Jeanty has made it seem so easy. Take these two props to the bank.
