Two teams with the shortest preseason odds to win the Mountain West will compete for the conference championship on Friday when the UNLV Rebels (10-2, 6-1 MWC) meet the Boise State Broncos (11-1, 7-0).
Friday's kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Rebels and Broncos will meet for the second consecutive season, but with a small change in venue: They will play on the blue turf of Albertsons Stadium.
After sweeping the regular-season conference schedule, Boise State will play host for the sixth time since 2013's inaugural game.
The Broncos emerged victorious over the Rebels in Week 9, 29-24. They ended the game on a 14-play drive that lasted over 8 minutes before victory formation.
UNLV will play in Albertsons Stadium for the first time since 2016, where no precipitation is expected in freezing temperatures.
Boise State opened the market as a 5.5-point favorite, but steam on UNLV brought the number to +4. The over/under is 57.5.
Let's dive into my UNLV vs. Boise State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Dec. 6.
UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos Prediction, Best Bet
- UNLV vs. Boise State Pick: UNLV +4
My UNLV vs. Boise State best bet is on the Rebels to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UNLV vs. Boise State Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
| UNLV Rebels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 57.5 -113o / -108u | +145 |
| Boise State Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 57.5 -113o / -108u | -186 |
- UNLV vs Boise State Spread: UNLV +4 · Boise State -4
- UNLV vs Boise State Over/Under: 57.5
- UNLV vs Boise State Moneyline: UNLV ML +145 · Boise State ML -186
UNLV Football vs. Boise State Football Mountain West Championship Preview
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview
Brennan Marion's Go-Go offense never slowed despite losing a starting quarterback entering conference play.
Campbell transfer quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams took over starting duties in Week 5 against Fresno State, compiling one of the best statistical profiles for any Group of 5 signal caller.
Williams finished the season with 26 all-purpose touchdowns, generating nearly 900 rushing yards and another 1,735 from the passing game. Even more impressive is the lack of mistakes in critical situations, as Williams has just one turnover-worthy play in 80 dropbacks that saw pressure.
Combined with wide receiver Ricky White, the Rebels rank among the top 10 offenses in Quality Drives.
The three-man nickel defense has been a staple of head coach Barry Odom through multiple positions in the SEC. The Rebels rank in the top 10 nationally in havoc thanks to forced fumbles.
Yet, despite ranking top 25 nationally in Line Yards and PFF's Coverage grades, UNLV has allowed too many explosives while struggling to hold up in the extended red zone.
The Rebels allowed four explosive runs to Boise State earlier this year, and the Broncos capitalized on their scoring opportunities.
UNLV has allowed 95 opponent possessions to cross the Rebels' 40-yard line, the highest total in the nation, while allowing 4.4 points per attempt.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
The return of offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was crucial to the success of an offense with the best running back in the nation.
Junior Ashton Jeanty ends the regular season with 2,287 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns. The Broncos run the ball at one of the highest rates in the nation on first down, ranking in the top 20 nationally in Success Rate thanks to Jeanty's 5.4 yards after first contact.
Boise State has been tough, ranking 13th nationally in Standard Downs Success Rate and top 10 in offensive momentum killer rate.
But the Broncos must stay on schedule because they can't generate explosives in Passing Downs. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has one of the best touchdown-to-interception ratios in the Mountain West, but he's generated twice as many turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws.
Coordinator Erik Chinander's 3-2-6 defense has held up better against the rush than the pass despite working out of dime packages. Boise State ranks 82nd nationally in Defensive Pass Efficiency and 98th in Passing Explosiveness allowed.
Those numbers drop in passing downs, as the Broncos have the worst rank in allowing explosives when opposing offenses get behind schedule.
The biggest issue is tackling. The Broncos rank 132nd nationally in PFF's Tackling grades.
Boise State vs. UNLV Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boise State and UNLV match up statistically:
UNLV Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 8 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 82 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 33 |  |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 33 | |
Boise State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 46 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 22 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 61 | 132 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 38 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 16 | 67 |
| Middle 8 | 51 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (78) | 27.4 (72) |
| Rush Rate | 68% (5) | 58% (29) |
UNLV vs. Boise State Picks, Best Bets
According to our Action Network calculations, Albertsons Stadium will give Boise State a 2.8-point home-field advantage.
The projected spread falls right at the Broncos -4, but there is reason to believe UNLV will have a better showing than in the Week 9 head-to-head matchup.
The Rebels lost the game by five points but finished with a 61% post-game win expectancy. The Broncos were beaten from an overall yards-per-play perspective, generating field position through special teams while failing to create an explosive drive.
Williams spoke exclusively about the differences between Week 9 and the present, specifically on improving protection from the offensive line.
Pressures have steadily declined since the Rebels' midseason, while run blocking has improved. Jai'Den Thomas has gone over 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games for UNLV.
The Go-Go offense can include half a dozen run concepts from multiple personnel, as Man, Power and pulling linemen have generated Success Rates higher than 60%. Boise State has a low 42% Success Rate against man-run concepts, an avenue UNLV should be able to expose.
The Broncos' defense ranks outside the top 100 nationally in two critical areas: creating contested catches and broken tackles allowed.
UNLV improved its tackling this year and limited Jeanty earlier this year — the Rebels had just nine missed tackles in the Week 9 head-to-head matchup. Jeanty's 40 missed tackles forced over the next three games (San Diego State, Nevada, San Jose State) makes that Week 9 stat all the more impressive.
Boise State runs a heavy amount of outside zone with Jeanty, a critical run concept to the UNLV defense. The Rebels have a high 59% Success Rate against outside zone this season.
Pick: UNLV +4
UNLV vs. Boise State Channel, How To Watch, Location, Streaming, Start Time
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Friday, Dec. 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
UNLV vs Boise State will be played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, on Friday, Dec. 6 at 8:00 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.
UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Trends to Know
UNLV vs. Boise State Weather Forecast
