UNLV vs Hawaii Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 55.5 -112o / -108u | -410 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 55.5 -112o / -108u | +315 |
UNLV looks to get back on track as it travels away from the mainland to match up with Hawaii late Saturday night.
The Rebels opened the season winning four of their first five games with their sole loss coming to Cal in the closing seconds. Since then, they've lost five games in a row by an average margin of 20 points per game.
However, the program has covered the spread in three games in a row, highlighted by last week’s last-second cover on a backdoor field goal.
Fireworks for the cover 😂
UNLV (+8.5) backdoor ✅pic.twitter.com/bXIdcaAzCj
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 12, 2022
The program will have a great opportunity to get back on track against a Hawaii program that ranks 128th in the nation, according toCollin Wilson’s betting power ratings.
Hawaii is 2-8 on the season with only one win against an FBS opponent, which came against 123rd-ranked Nevada. After losing its first three games by a combined 131-points, the program has managed to keep things a bit closer against Mountain West foes.
With an offense and defense that ranks outside the top 115 in scoring it’s tough to imagine Hawaii finding another victory this season.
Despite losing five games in a row, UNLV will still reach bowl eligibility if they can end the season with two victories. Meanwhile, motivation is a major question mark on the island.
UNLV Rebels
It’s been a tale of two halves this season for UNLV.
The early success that led to a 4-1 record was thanks to an offense that averaged 38 points per game. During the current five-game losing streak, that number has dropped down to only 15 points per game.
Much of the decline can be attributed to the level of competition stiffening. But also, quarterback Doug Brumfield missed three starts in which the offense averaged 12 points per game.
Brumfield has completed 66% of his passes for an average of eight yards per attempt. He’s thrown nine touchdowns to four interceptions.
He’s leaned on Michigan State transfer Ricky White and Kyle Williams as his go-to targets. The two have accounted for 41% of the team's receptions and eight of the 12 touchdown receptions this season.
The weakness in UNLV’s defense has been its secondary. But that shouldn’t be much of an issue against a Hawaii passing offense that ranks 125th in yards per pass attempt.
Instead, Hawaii has found most of its success through a run game that averages 4.7 yards per attempt.
The Rebels' defensive front has been strong this year, allowing just 4.0 yards per run. Over the last two weeks, UNLV held San Diego State and Fresno State to 167 total rushing yards on 67 carries, an average of 2.1 yards per attempt.
Hawaii Warriors
It’s been a long year for Hawaii, which has beaten just one FBS team this season. The Rainbow Warriors have been outscored by an average of 20 points per game this season.
The program has major issues on both sides of the ball. The offense ranks 115th in the nation, scoring just 19 points per game. It’s a pass-happy group that throws the ball on 56% of its plays this season.
But quarterback Brayden Schager is completing only 55% of those throws for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. The sophomore quarterback has thrown nine touchdowns to 10 interceptions in the season, including three last week.
The program has started feeding running back Tylan Hines a bit more in recent weeks. The freshman has racked up 279 rushing yards on 31 carries (9.0 yards per carry) over the last three weeks, but that’s been the lone bright spot recently for the Rainbow Warriors offense.
The defense has been the main culprit for the program's struggles this season. The group ranks 126th in the country in scoring, allowing 39 points per game. Opposing FBS offenses are averaging over 450 yards of total offense and 6.9 yards per play this season.
The issues are present all over the field. The front seven is allowing 6.1 yards per carry (129th), while the secondary gives up 8.4 yards per pass attempt (116th).
UNLV vs Hawaii Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Hawaii match up statistically:
UNLV Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 103 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 69 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Hawaii Offense vs. UNLV Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 125 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 106 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 60 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 92 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 55 | 129 |
| PFF Coverage | 66 | 121 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 28 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (80) | 24.8 (33) |
| Rush Rate | 53.5% (68) | 45.1% (112) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UNLV vs Hawaii Betting Pick
UNLV should have plenty of motivation in this matchup. The Rebels have a real chance at making their second bowl game of this millennium. The group should be able to take care of business in this matchup with Hawaii and will finish against in-state rival Nevada.
The Rebels offense should be able to do whatever it wants against the horrid Hawaiin defense. The Rainbow Warriors haven’t been able to stop anyone this season and are allowing over 450 yards of total offense per game.
Brumfield will be making his third start since returning from his injury and should be able to light this defense up.
UNLV’s defense strengths match up well against the strengths of Hawaii’s offense. Look for the Rebels to shut down the rushing attack and force Schager to try and beat them through the air.
I anticipate UNLV to treat this game as a business trip and not a Hawaiian vacation.
Pick: UNLV -10.5 (Play to -13) |
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