The UNLV Rebels (8-2, 4-1 Mountain West) are on the road this week to take on the San Jose State Spartans (6-4, 3-3) in Mountain West Conference action on Friday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on FS1.
UNLV enters this contest as a 7.5-point favorite with a 61.5-point over/under.
The Rebels seek to keep pace atop the Mountain West Conference standings. They need to win out and get some help to make the conference championship game.
San Jose State is looking to rebound from a brutal loss last week against Boise State.
Let's get into my UNLV vs. San Jose State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 22.
UNLV vs San Jose State Prediction
- UNLV vs. San Jose State Pick: Under 61
My Kent State vs. Akron best bet is on the Under, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UNLV vs San Jose State Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 61 -110 / -110 | -290 |
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 61 -110 / -110 | +235 |
- UNLV vs San Jose State Point Spread: UNLV -7.5 (-110) · San Jose State +7.5 (-110)
- UNLV vs San Jose State Total: Over/Under 61
- UNLV vs San Jose State Moneyline: UNLV -290 · San Jose State +235
UNLV vs San Jose State Preview
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: Red-Zone Woes
UNLV is coming off a convincing home win last week against San Diego State, though there were some concerning elements to the game that we saw play out.
We saw UNLV move the ball up and down the field against the Aztecs all night, racking up 515 total yards and 26 first downs. The defense was locked in for most of the first three quarters as UNLV built a 35-6 lead.
However, UNLV's red-zone offense was concerning. The Rebs had “1st and goal” three times inside the 5-yard line and could not punch it across.
Lack of execution did not cost UNLV in this game, but it could cost them down the line.
San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview: Can Spartans Rebound?
San Jose State is fresh off a disastrous 42-21 home loss against Boise State last week.
San Jose State led the game 14-0 and could consistently extend drives and move the ball against the Broncos. The run defense held its own in the trenches, and SJSU had the lead in the third quarter.
Boise State would score the next four touchdowns, the last a pick-six to seal the win and cost San Jose State spread backers the cover in brutal fashion.
The Spartans want to rebound and finish their conference schedule strong before a home date with Stanford in their season finale.
UNLV vs San Jose State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and San Jose State match up statistically:
UNLV Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 42 |  |
| Havoc | 45 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 66 | |
San Jose State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 133 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 116 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 35 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 80 | 105 |
| PFF Coverage | 27 | 58 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 25 | 116 |
| Middle 8 | 48 | 28 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (72) | 23.6 (10) |
| Rush Rate | 68% (7) | 37% (134) |
UNLV vs San Jose State Pick & Prediction
This game feels like it will feature a lot of yards and scoring chances, coupled with inefficient red-zone play and missed opportunities.
So, I am going to play the under in this game.
San Jose State has implemented the “Spread-N-Shred” offense under head coach Ken Niumatalolo, and Year 1 of it has to be considered a resounding success. The Spartans have been much more competitive than expected, and even while battling quarterback controversy, this offense has piled up passing yards.
Emmett Brown and Walker Eget have thrown for over 1,600 yards each, and receiver Nick Nash has 95 receptions and 14 touchdowns. The offensive line protects well, and the ground game has, at times, been effective. What has been interesting with San Jose State is that they are not scoring a lot of points due to several specific factors, of which I believe UNLV will take advantage.
San Jose State has successfully moved the ball between the 20s, but it has struggled when the field gets condensed in the red zone. The unit has only cashed in touchdowns on 21-of-34 trips inside the red zone and has been plagued by untimely turnovers and failed fourth-down conversions each of the last several weeks.
For all of the excitement that the dynamic San Jose State offense brings, it is now lining up against a group of ballhawks and the UNLV secondary should provide challenges.
The Runnin’ Rebs have 16 interceptions and rank in the top 50 nationally in both Defensive EPA Per Pass and Pass Play Success Rate allowed. This is likely the best coverage unit the Spartans have faced all season, and I would expect guys like Johnathan Baldwin and Jalen Catalon to be locked in on Nash.
UNLV ranks 38th nationally in Defensive Havoc, and its front seven has registered 30 sacks and 69 tackles for a loss on the season. While San Jose State has not surrendered many sacks this year, the pressure has disrupted designed pass plays, resulting in scramble situations and throwaways.
Offensively, UNLV and its “Go-Go” offense have operated similarly in that they have had no issues moving the ball between the 20s but struggle badly in the red zone. We loved the Rebels last week here at Action Network, and they covered -20.5, but the red-zone offense was terrible to watch and has been a pattern for the Rebs all season.
UNLV has only scored touchdowns on 29-of-58 red-zone trips and has kicked an astonishing 19 red-zone field goals this year. San Jose State allows touchdowns on 62% of red-zone trips and grades out 48th nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives. Until I see UNLV consistently execute in the red zone, I cannot trust this unit to cash in for touchdowns.
I imagine the Rebs do not want to get into a shootout here; however, Vegas has operated at a slower pace this year overall. UNLV wants to run the ball, while the San Jose State front seven should oblige the unit and provide enough resistance to limit explosives and make UNLV work for yards. The Spartans rank in the top 60 nationally in Defensive EPA Per Rush and Rush Play Explosiveness allowed.
It’s a game where you would expect many points between the “Go-Go” and the “Spread-N-Shred,” but inefficiencies in the red zone continue to show for both offenses.
Expect plenty of yards and a lack of execution in the red zone — plug your nose and take the under.
Pick: Under 61
UNLV vs San Jose State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, Calif. |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 22 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
UNLV vs San Jose State will be played at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, California, on Friday, Nov. 22 at 10 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
