Less than two days ago, I had a fairly good read on the destinations for the majority of bowl teams.
And then Saturday happened.
No. 8 Alabama beats No. 1 Georgia; No. 4 Florida State, down to a third-string quarterback, beats Louisville but looks like Iowa (great defense, limited offense); SMU upsets No. 22 Tulane; and Miami (OH) upsets Toledo.
That might not sound like much, but of the 41 bowls, those results — and the resulting dominoes — impacted about 15-20 bowl matchups.
The biggest question is Florida State. I’ve flipped more times than (use your own bad analogy) on the Seminoles' playoff chances. Are they in? Are they out?
It’s this simple, but it’s not this simple: Will the committee leave out a 13-0 Power 5 champion that is clearly not one of the best four teams without QB Jordan Travis; or will it put FSU in and then have a Sophie’s Choice-like decision of Texas or Alabama?
Could it — would it? — really leave out the SEC champion?
So, what is it? If FSU is out, Texas and Alabama are in. If FSU is in, the committee must decide between Texas (with the head-to-head win at Alabama) or the Crimson Tide.
Here are the "To Make the Playoff" odds heading into Sunday:
| Odds to Make CFP | Odds to Miss CFP | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida State | -400 | +300 |
| Texas | -400 | +300 |
| Alabama | +128 | -158 |
| Georgia | +1600 | -6000 |
With a confidence level of about 7.2 (on a scale of 10), here are my latest projections (and I’ll update again Sunday morning), which are probably different than what I tweeted out earlier Saturday night. So, if you’re confused, you’re not alone.
Here are my latest projections and the projected point spread of each matchup from Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.
CFP National Championship Prediction
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
 Rose Bowl Jan. 1 • Pasadena, CA Michigan  Alabama PK |  Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 • New Orleans, LA  Washington Texas -2 |
New Year's Six Bowl Games
 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Jan. 1 • Glendale, AZ  Oregon -7  Missouri |  Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Dec. 30 • Atlanta, GA  Penn State -13.5  Liberty |
 Capital One Orange Bowl Dec. 30 • Miami, FL  Georgia -12  Florida State |  Goodyear Cotton Bowl Dec. 29 • Arlington, TX  Ohio State -7.5  Oklahoma |
Projections for All Other Bowl Games
 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Jan. 1 • Orlando, FL  Ole Miss -13.5  Iowa |  ReliaQuest Bowl Jan. 1 • Tampa, FL  Wisconsin  Tennessee -8 |  Arizona Bowl Dec. 30 • Tucson, AZ  UNLV  Toledo -1 |  Music City Bowl Dec. 30 • Nashville, TN  Auburn -2  Maryland |  AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec. 29 • Memphis, TN  Iowa State -9  Memphis |  Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Dec. 29 • El Paso, TX  Miami  Oregon State -5 |  TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Dec. 29 • Jacksonville, FL  LSU -11.5  NC State |  Valero Alamo Bowl Dec. 28 • San Antonio, TX  Oklahoma St.  Arizona -8.5 |  Pop-Tarts Bowl Dec. 28 • Orlando, FL  Notre Dame -2.5  Kansas State |  Pinstripe Bowl Dec. 28 • Bronx, NY  UNC -6.5  Rutgers |  Wasabi Fenway Bowl Dec. 28 • Boston, MA  Georgia Tech  SMU -6 |  TaxAct Texas Bowl Dec. 27 • Houston, TX  Texas A&M -4.5  West Virginia |  Holiday Bowl Dec. 27 • San Diego, CA  Louisville  USC -0.5 |  Duke's Mayo Bowl Dec. 27 • Charlotte, NC  Clemson -7.5  Kentucky |  Military Bowl Dec. 27 • Annapolis, MD  Virginia Tech -3.5  Tulane |  Guaranteed Rate Bowl Dec. 26 • Phoenix, AZ  Kansas -13.5  Minnesota |  First Responder Bowl Dec. 26 • Dallas, TX  Syracuse  Fresno State -2.5 |  Quick Lane Bowl Dec. 26 • Detroit, MI  Boston College -1.5  Bowling Green |  EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl Dec. 23 • Honolulu, HI  San Jose St. -10.5  Coastal Carolina |  Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 23 • Las Vegas, NV  Utah -10.5  Northwestern |  68 Ventures Bowl Dec. 23 • Mobile, AL  S. Alabama -13.5  E. Michigan |  Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Dec. 23 • Boise, ID  Utah State  Marshall -4.5 |  Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 23 • Fort Worth, TX  Air Force  JMU -6 |  Camellia Bowl Dec. 23 • Montgomery, AL  NIU  Arkansas St. PK |  Birmingham Bowl Dec. 23 • Birmingham, AL  Duke  UTSA -2 |  Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 22 • Tampa, FL  UCF -1.5  Troy |  Boca Raton Bowl Dec. 21 • Boca Raton, FL  South Florida  Georgia Southern -1 |  Frisco Bowl Dec. 19 • Frisco, TX  Rice  Texas State -4 |  Myrtle Beach Bowl Dec. 18 • Conway, SC  Ohio -5  Georgia St. |  Independence Bowl Dec. 16 • Shreveport, LA  Texas Tech -2  California |  LA Bowl Dec. 16 • Inglewood, CA  UCLA -4.5  Boise State |  New Mexico Bowl Dec. 16 • Albuquerque, NM  New Mexico St.  Wyoming -3.5 |  Cure Bowl Dec. 16 • Orlando, FL  App State -6.5  Miami OH |  New Orleans Bowl Dec. 16 • New Orleans, LA  Louisiana -2.5  Jacksonville St. |  Famous Toastery Bowl Dec. 18 • Charlotte, NC  WKU -2  ODU |
