Since my last projections on Wednesday, there has been massive “negotiating” and behind-the-scenes trading of potential teams between bowls and conferences — with much more still to come.
As of Friday morning, here are my latest projections, which I expect could — and will — be jostled around even more before Sunday’s official pairings are announced.
While the conferences and bowls try to pencil in their expected matchups entering conference championship weekend, there usually are some last-minute plot twists and upsets that create some late chaos on Sunday.
Reminder, these projections are based on Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Washington winning their conference title games and advancing to the College Football Playoff.
Here are some yet-to-be-determined plot lines that could impact multiple teams and bowls:
- Notre Dame: Will the Irish end up in the ReliaQuest Bowl? If so, will the Irish face LSU in the Brian Kelly Bowl or Tennessee, if the SEC sends the Tigers to the Gator Bowl instead?
- Miami: The Hurricanes finished only 7-5, but they might be one of the nation’s most coveted bowl teams. Who wins the battle for Miami? It’s a battle royale between the Pinstripe and Sun Bowls.
- Arizona Bowl: Who ultimately ends up in the Arizona Bowl after multiple teams have indicated this week a preference to play elsewhere because of the bowl’s sponsor?
- The Sun Belt 12: The news broke Thursday that Coastal Carolina will become the first Sun Belt team to play in the Hawaii Bowl. Also, I reported Friday that Louisiana will play Jacksonville State in the New Orleans Bowl. Where will the league’s remaining 10 teams wind up? Will the Sun Belt’s record crop of bowl teams include any intriguing matchups vs. Power 5 teams?
- Where does FBS newbie James Madison end up? I’m projecting James Madison in the Armed Forces Bowl vs. Air Force.
- What if Tulane tumbles? A Tulane win over SMU sends the Green Wave to a New Year’s Six bowl (I’m projecting the Peach Bowl). However, what if SMU upsets the Green Wave? No. 24 Liberty is currently the only other ranked Group of 5 team by the selection committee, but could unranked SMU, potential Sun Belt champ Troy or potential MAC champ Toledo leap-frog 13-0 Liberty?
My projections will be updated again late Saturday night following the conference championship games. All of the official pairings will be announced Sunday afternoon.
Here are my latest projections, along with the projected point spread of each matchup from Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.
CFP National Championship Prediction
College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections
 Rose Bowl Jan. 1 • Pasadena, CA Michigan -5.5  Washington |  Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 • New Orleans, LA Georgia -11.5  Florida State |
New Year's Six Bowl Games
 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Jan. 1 • Glendale, AZ  Oregon -2.5  Alabama |  Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Dec. 30 • Atlanta, GA  Penn State -13.5  Tulane |
 Capital One Orange Bowl Dec. 30 • Miami, FL  Ohio State -14  Louisville |  Goodyear Cotton Bowl Dec. 29 • Arlington, TX  Texas -3  Missouri |
Projections for All Other Bowl Games
 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Jan. 1 • Orlando, FL  Ole Miss -13.5  Iowa |  ReliaQuest Bowl Jan. 1 • Tampa, FL  Notre Dame  LSU PK |  Arizona Bowl Dec. 30 • Tucson, AZ  Boise State -9.5  Miami OH |  Music City Bowl Dec. 30 • Nashville, TN  Auburn -3  Wisconsin |  AutoZone Liberty Bowl Dec. 29 • Memphis, TN  Iowa State -9  Memphis |  Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Dec. 29 • El Paso, TX  Miami  Oregon State -5 |  TaxSlayer Gator Bowl Dec. 29 • Jacksonville, FL  Tennessee -6.5  UNC |  Valero Alamo Bowl Dec. 28 • San Antonio, TX  Oklahoma -2.5  Arizona |  Pop-Tarts Bowl Dec. 28 • Orlando, FL  NC State  Kansas State -9 |  Pinstripe Bowl Dec. 28 • Bronx, NY  Georgia Tech -1  Rutgers |  Wasabi Fenway Bowl Dec. 28 • Boston, MA  Boston College  SMU -13.5 |  TaxAct Texas Bowl Dec. 27 • Houston, TX  Texas A&M -2.5  Oklahoma St. |  Holiday Bowl Dec. 27 • San Diego, CA  Clemson -4  USC |  Duke's Mayo Bowl Dec. 27 • Charlotte, NC  Virginia Tech  Kentucky -3 |  Military Bowl Dec. 27 • Annapolis, MD  Syracuse -5  South Florida |  Guaranteed Rate Bowl Dec. 26 • Phoenix, AZ  Kansas -9.5  Northwestern |  First Responder Bowl Dec. 26 • Dallas, TX  UTSA -7  Fresno State |  Quick Lane Bowl Dec. 26 • Detroit, MI  Minnesota -5  Bowling Green |  EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl Dec. 23 • Honolulu, HI  San Jose St. -10.5  Coastal Carolina |  Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 23 • Las Vegas, NV  Utah -5  Maryland |  68 Ventures Bowl Dec. 23 • Mobile, AL  S. Alabama -13.5  E. Michigan |  Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Dec. 23 • Boise, ID  Utah State  Marshall -4.5 |  Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 23 • Fort Worth, TX  Air Force  JMU -6 |  Camellia Bowl Dec. 23 • Montgomery, AL  NIU  Arkansas St. PK |  Birmingham Bowl Dec. 23 • Birmingham, AL  West Virginia -6.5  Toledo |  Gasparilla Bowl Dec. 22 • Tampa, FL  UCF -2  Troy |  Boca Raton Bowl Dec. 21 • Boca Raton, FL  Duke -11.5  Georgia Southern |  Frisco Bowl Dec. 19 • Frisco, TX  Rice  Texas State -4 |  Myrtle Beach Bowl Dec. 18 • Conway, SC  Ohio -5  Georgia St. |  Independence Bowl Dec. 16 • Shreveport, LA  Texas Tech -2  California |  LA Bowl Dec. 16 • Inglewood, CA  UCLA -10.5  UNLV |  New Mexico Bowl Dec. 16 • Albuquerque, NM  New Mexico St.  Wyoming -3.5 |  Cure Bowl Dec. 16 • Orlando, FL  App State  Liberty -1.5 |  New Orleans Bowl Dec. 16 • New Orleans, LA  Louisiana -2.5  Jacksonville St. |  Famous Toastery Bowl Dec. 16 • Charlotte, NC  WKU -2  ODU |
