USC vs. LSU Odds
LSU closed as a 4-point favorite (-4) vs USC for Sunday night's Week 1 game in Las Vegas. The closing line for the total was over/under 67 at most books. LSU was a -185 favorite to win on the moneyline, with USC +155 to pull off the upset.
- Point spread: LSU -4 | USC +4
- Total: Over/under 66.5
- Moneylines: LSU -185 | USC +155
| LSU Football Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -118 | 66.5 -115o / -105u | -184 |
| USC Football Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -104 | 66.5 -115o / -105u | +152 |
USC vs. LSU Preview
Sunday's Week 1 college football game between the LSU Tigers and the USC Trojans is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC and ESPN+, live from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The game is also streaming on YouTube TV and streaming platforms that carry ABC/ESPN.
No. 13 LSU is a 4-point favorite (-4) at almost every sportsbook, with LSU -3.5 available for those betting the Tigers, if you shop around. The total is now up to over/under 66.5 points scored across the sportsbooks, with a few books posting a line of 67.
On the point spread, our experts are picking No. 23 USC to cover, although we'll have to keep an eye on the best number for the Trojans. Our best college football predictions and picks for Week 1 feature a bet on the total, specifically on the over — but that number continues to move, so be sure to shop around for the best lines with our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs. LSU Pick
Spread: USC to Cover
Our experts are backing USC on the spread against LSU on Sunday, with the majority having placed their bets at USC +4.5. The best line for USC to cover is currently Trojans +4, and the line is down +3.5 at some places, so be sure to find the best line before making your bet.
Total: Over
Our experts are betting the over on Sunday. Just keep in mind that the consensus total has risen by two points since we first placed our over/under bets, and it doesn't look like it's slowing down.
Moneyline: USC to Win
Our experts do not have a moneyline bet for this primetime Sunday night college football Week 1 matchup, but one of the original college betting experts and the prime minister himself Stuckey is on USC to win outright as one of his best moneyline underdog plays of the week. And if you're betting the Trojans to pull off the upset, check out our top sportsbooks list to get the most value for your money first.
College Football Week 1 Prediction: USC-LSU
By Dan Keegan
You know that GIF of Alonzo Mourning on the bench, first contemplating something bad, then remembering something good and ultimately shaking his head as he's resigned to his indecisive fate?
Yeah, that’s how both of the USC and LSU programs feel right now.
Under head coach Brian Kelly, LSU has delivered a Heisman Trophy winner, a massive victory over the hated Alabama Crimson Tide and a 10-win season. However, the Tigers also had a joke of a defense and a disappointing 7-5 campaign.
The staff is killing it in high-school recruiting but whiffing on impact transfers.
USC has had a Heisman winner and 10-win season under Lincoln Riley as well but also delivered a disappointing campaign. Talent accumulation is strikes and gutters. The offenses have been excellent, and the defenses poor.
There are other similarities, too.
Both outfits will be replacing their Heisman quarterbacks with in-house, inexperienced options.
LSU replaces the dynamic Jayden Daniels with Garrett Nussmeier, a more typical pocket-passer who has been in Baton Rouge waiting for his chance. USC will turn to Miller Moss to replace Caleb Williams. Moss earned his shot with a tremendous bowl game and a strong offseason.
Both went out and splurged on expensive new coordinators to fix their disastrous defenses.
LSU plucked Louisiana native Blake Baker out of Missouri, where he led top-20 defenses for the Tigers, and made him the highest-paid coordinator in the sport. USC stole D’Anton Lynn from UCLA after getting an up-close look at how he built a fearsome front four for a crosstown rival.
So, which team exits this game like the happy Mourning, nodding their head in fulfillment? And which leaves Las Vegas shaking their head in disappointment?
LSU is favored in this matchup, and the total is one of the highest on the board for the weekend. We polled 15 members of our college football staff to get some consensus expert college football Week 1 picks and predictions. Let’s see how we collectively would play this blockbuster matchup.
How to Watch USC-LSU
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TVChannel/ Streaming: | ABC/ESPN+/YouTube TV |
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
Sunday night's USC-LSU game is scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, with kickoff from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The game is streaming live on ESPN+ and any streaming platform that carries ABC/ESPN, including YouTube TV.
POINT SPREAD
The point spread for this game opened at LSU -4.5, with the current spread LSU -4 at most books, although there is still an LSU -4.5 in the market. There are even some lines of LSU -3.5 available currently; we'll see if that dips down to the key number of LSU -3.
Our betting experts are taking USC to cover the spread, with a lean to the Trojans down to +3.5.
By John Feltman
It seems that our staff is leaning toward backing the Trojans in the matchup. It turns out that I certainly agree with them — but I’m surprised nobody picked a coin-flip with such a short spread.
The reasoning behind the USC love is clear to me. LSU's defense is a mess. The Tigers are coming off a 2023 season in which their defense clearly held them back.
LSU was among the worst teams in the nation in Defensive Success Rate, EPA per Play and Quality Drives Allowed. If the opponent had a competent offense last season, it pretty much had its way with this group.
Meanwhile, it seems like the market is underselling the Trojans here. Caleb Williams departs, but now begins the Miller Moss era. Moss was a highly-touted quarterback prospect, and I don't think there's as much of a drop-off as the market perceives.
Instead, the biggest change for the Trojans was bringing in former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
Lynn turned UCLA's defense from a putrid unit into one of the best run-stoppers in the entire nation. Lynn is a massive upgrade over Alex Grinch, and I expect a much better USC defense from the get-go.
The Trojans are oddly in a similar spot as the Tigers, as they also struggled on the defensive side of the ball last season. I think the DC hire is critical for the matchup, and I expect a much stronger USC defense in 2024.
The Trojans should not have been 4.5-point underdogs here, so I’m happy to snag that before it drops any lower.
Pick: USC +4 |
TOTAL
The consensus line for the total is currently over/under 66, with some lines as high as 67. Our experts are betting the over.
Over | 8 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under | 5 Picks |
By Dan Keegan
The majority of our team is backing the over in this headlining matchup.
Both teams were over machines last year — if you bet the over in all 26 games of the 2023 season for these two squads, you would've gone 23-3.
I mean, I could stop right there. But there are actual analytic-based football reasons to support the obvious choice.
Both teams are riddled with offensive talent, and their new quarterbacks are stepping into outstanding offensive infrastructures.
While they took steps to address their defenses in the offseason with new coordinators, it will take time, and they will need reps against non-top-five offenses to get up to speed.
USC will rely on an electric corps of playmakers to execute Lincoln Riley’s offense — arguably the best scheme in college football over the past decade.
Woody Marks is the running back after transferring from Mississippi State, where he averaged almost five yards per carry despite an anemic group around him.
Sophomore wide receivers Duce Robinson and Zachariah Branch are ready for stardom after getting their feet wet as freshmen. Branch, in particular, has drawn comparisons to Trojan legend Reggie Bush as an all-purpose monster.
LSU also boasts an embarrassment of riches offensively.
The program has printed quality wide receivers, and new quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been waiting for his breakout. LSU has one of the best offensive lines in the sport, as both tackles are All-America candidates and early NFL Draft picks next summer.
But all the talent in the world doesn’t matter if you can’t execute.
And boy, do these teams execute, especially in their scoring opportunities. Both finished in the top seven nationally in Finishing Drives a season ago — and both defenses finished outside of the top 50 in the same metric.
Turning threes into sevens is the most surefire way to cash an over.
Even if some of the key players are charging, our staff trusts that these teams know how to put the ball in the end zone and will do so with frequency on Sunday night.
Pick: Over 64.5 | Bet to 66.5 |
MONEYLINE
While our betting expert staff does not have a bet for the outright winner in Sunday evening's game, the Prime Minister of college football betting himself, Stuckey, bet the Trojans to win and pull off the upset at +165. That number is coming down slightly, with the best line available at ESPN BET at +160 at this moment. But here was what Stuckey had to say:
"I don't see LSU's defense improving whatsoever under new coordinator Blake Baker from Missouri. The Tigers were great at creating Havoc, ranking top-20 in that area, but they couldn't defend explosives.
"Mizzou was also horrific in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 4.6 points per trip across their 40-yard line to rank 81st nationally.
"That's going to be a problem against a USC offense that ranked third in scoring offense and 10th in total offense a season ago.
"While Caleb Williams is gone, the Trojans bring back Miller Moss, who lit the college football world on fire with his performance against Louisville in the Holiday Bowl. In that game, the L.A. native threw for 372 yards, six touchdowns and one interception while completing 69.7% of his passes.
"Plus, he has one of the nation's most explosive weapons in wide receiver Zachariah Branch and will throw behind one of the top offensive lines in the Big Ten.
"I'll take the Trojans to make a statement on Sunday."
How to Bet Expert USC-LSU Picks
The answer to this question depends on what exactly you mean. If you're looking for the best picks after analyzing the point spread, the total and the moneylines, as well as player props and more, then the best way to make your pick is to follow our experts' best bet and take the over on the LSU vs USC total Sunday night.
If you're still new to sports betting — whether you're just getting started or have placed a few bets but could still use some help — you'll want to check out How to Bet on Sports: The First 12 Things Beginners Need to Know. There, we explain what all the numbers mean, how to sign up at a sportsbook, how to use all the promo codes you see, and much more.
And if you're looking for the best way to do your own analysis on games, why not learn from our college football betting experts? Stuckey himself is here to teach you the Top 10 tips for beginner college football bettors, and you can subscribe to our brand-new "Big Bets on Campus" college football YouTube channel for all of the NCAAF betting advice you could ever want!
LSU vs. USC Best Bet: Over (Bet to 66.5)
USC vs. LSU Weather
Sunday night's game will be played indoors at Allegiant Stadium, and weather shouldn't be a factor.
USC vs. LSU Betting Trends
- 69% of bets and 55% of the money are on LSU to cover the spread.
- 14% of bets and 95% of the money are on USC to win outright.
- 56% of bets and 81% of the money are on the over.
All data courtesy of our Action Network NCAAF public betting page.
