The USC Trojans (2-0) will kick off their first-ever Big Ten game against the Michigan Wolverines (2-1) at the Big House on Saturday, Sept. 21 at 3:30 p.m. on ABC. The game is streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
These teams have not met since a Rose Bowl appearance nearly 20 years ago, as the Wolverines will look to defend their home field against a top-15 team for the second time this season. On the other side, USC head coach Lincoln Riley has been riding high after a season-opening 27-20 victory over LSU in Las Vegas.
USC is a consensus 4.5-point favorite over Michigan, with the over/under currently 44 points. The Trojans are -190 favorites on the moneyline, with the Wolverines +160 to pull off the slight upset at home.
This game has seen a wild swing on the point spread, as Michigan could be found as a double-digit favorite in the summer. However, that number has moved toward USC at a lightning pace. Is that steam justified? Let's dive into my USC vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks for Saturday.
USC vs. Michigan Odds, Picks, Prediction
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 / -115 | -220 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 / -115 | +180 |
- USC vs. Michigan spread: USC -4.5
- USC vs. Michigan over/under: 44 points
- USC vs. Michigan moneylines: USC -190, Michigan +160
- USC vs. Michigan pick: USC team total over
My Michigan vs. USC best bet is on the Trojans team total over 24.5. Make sure to shop around for the best lines on all your college football bets with our live NCAAF odds page.
USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines College Football Saturday
The Trojans offense could be counted on despite the loss of a Heisman-winning quarterback in Caleb Williams, but the defense has vaulted USC to new heights.
Riley's team cut down on missed tackles while stiffening up when the Tigers got into scoring position. The defensive numbers improved even more with a shutout of Utah State before the bye week.
The story has been more complicated for a Michigan team that has failed to cover the spread in three games.
The Wolverines have struggled to find any rhythm on the ground or through the air offensively, generating one of the worst numbers in explosives in standard downs.
Head coach Sherrone Moore will make a change at quarterback on Saturday, indicating the Wolverines will look to beat the Trojans with a heavy ground game.
USC Trojans Football
The final box score against LSU could not have been more clean on any splits concerning Success Rate. USC generated two explosive drives (defined as a drive with a minimum of 10 yards per play) out of 11 possessions.
Quarterback Miller Moss may have ended the game with just a single touchdown on 378 yards passing, but the junior finished with five big-time throws and a single turnover-worthy play.
Southern California dominated LSU with 9.5 yards per play in passing attempts, as wideout Kyron Hudson provided all the highlights.
📺 ABC
📱 https://t.co/M1RwFNxzJlhttps://t.co/5ySYK8Zr6bpic.twitter.com/nizA58GypA— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) September 2, 2024
The rushing attack bulled over LSU in the red zone, with Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks collecting two touchdowns. The domination on the ground continued against Utah State, as USC tallied five rushing touchdowns on the evening.
In terms of penalties, third-down attempts and Line Yards for the offensive line, this USC offense has been crisp in the wake of losing a quarterback who was picked No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft.
The biggest change for the Trojans comes on the defensive side of the ball, as new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has lived up to the offseason hype.
USC has revamped its nickel defense, pumping a blitz rate up to 41% of snaps. Opponent rushing attempts have been fruitless, as the Trojans defense ranks top-20 in Opponent Rushing Success Rate.
The biggest change may come in tackle grading, where USC ranks 44th. Although the Trojans have missed 14 tackles through two games, it's an improvement from a 2023 team that missed 141 on the season.
Michigan Wolverines Football
The news of a change at quarterback was a surprise to Michigan's entire roster, as Moore relayed the change to the media before making an announcement to his team.
The move from Davis Warren to Alex Orji signifies a heavier lean toward the rush for a team that already runs the ball at a 56% clip.
The junior has attempted seven career passes in three seasons on the Michigan roster. However, there may be no passing dimension to the Wolverines offense if tight end Colston Loveland isn't cleared to play before kickoff.
Michigan starting QB Alex Orji in Michigan’s Spring Game
What stands out? 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZsIvxeR2O1
— Arrogant Nation✌🏻 (@FightOnRusty) September 16, 2024
Expect the Wolverines to lean on the offensive line for Orji, who has 179 career rushing yards on designed run calls.
Michigan has found success running the ball in its three games. The Wolverines rank top-35 in Rushing Success and Line Yards while posting Stuff Rate numbers better than the national average against Arkansas State, Texas and Fresno State.
Running back Donovan Edwards hasn't yet found his explosiveness, but Kalel Mullings has generated five explosive runs with an average of 5.1 yards after contact on 36 rushing attempts. It's noteworthy that Mullings didn't generate any of the explosives against Texas, producing just 19 yards after contact the entire game.
On the other side, Michigan's defense continues to struggle against the pass.
Arkansas State and Fresno State combined for 13 passes that exceeded 15 yards against the Wolverines' Cover 3. Uncharacteristically, the defense has been Havoc-less through three games with an overall rank of 80th.
The cornerbacks have provided the bulk of pass breakups and interceptions, as Aamir Hall, Jyaire Hill and Will Johnson have combined for seven total.
However, coverage grading has been poor for the back seven, as Hill, Johnson and linebacker Ernest Hausmann have allowed catches on 35-of-49 targets for a combined 257 yards.
The Michigan defense ranks 79th in on-target rate allowed, so USC's passing attack should find success.
Michigan vs. USC Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Michigan match up statistically:
USC Offense vs. Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 14 |  |
| Pass Success | 9 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 14 | 65 | |
Michigan Offense vs. USC Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 93 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 36 | |
| Quality Drives | 88 | 30 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 44 | 26 |
| PFF Coverage | 89 | 81 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 50 | 11 |
| Middle 8 | 36 | 75 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (41) | 32.5 (129) |
| Rush Rate | 43% (107) | 56% (43) |
Every advantage except for the home field resides with the Trojans here.
Moss will lead USC in its first road game in front of a hostile environment, much like Quinn Ewers did for Texas in Week 2.
The Longhorns had a key advantage in experience, as the bulk of the roster had recently won the Big 12 and played in the College Football Playoff.
USC could start the game sluggish in its first Big Ten road game, but the matchup on paper completely favors the visitors.
Slot receiver Zachariah Branch has the potential to break a few explosive plays for the Trojans. The Wolverines' slot corner duties fall to Zeke Berry, who allowed 3-of-4 targets to be caught for 22 yards against Texas.
The remaining pieces of the secondary will have trouble contending with a passing attack that's one of the most accurate in the nation.
Orji is the wild card in this game, changing the Michigan offense to a completely ground-based zone-read attack.
Action Network projects USC as a -4 favorite — below the current market number of -6. This number sat at Michigan -9 before Week 0 and has been a tug-of-war for both sides at 6.5.
USC is a buy at -3, as is Michigan at +7 or better.
However, those numbers may never enter the market, leaving bettors with a potential moneyline wager on USC or a live in-game wager on Michigan.
The better bet comes when taking into account the known quantities of USC's offense against Michigan's defense. The Trojans field a renewed rushing attack and a passing offense that has advantages against the Wolverines' secondary.
Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has not met expectations for the Wolverines after previously serving in the same role for the Baltimore Ravens. Inside information regarding Michigan’s defense could be repeated verbatim by USC’s defensive coordinator, as Lynn served as the secondary coach for the Ravens during Martindale’s tenure in Baltimore.
Riley will be sure to include Lynn in the offensive game plan, making USC's team total the play as the market currently stands.
Pick: USC Team Total Over 24.5
