It’s not about how you start, it’s how you finish.
The USC Trojans (3-1, 1-1 Big Ten) and Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-3, 0-2) will meet in a game in which these 2 teams are the living embodiment of that cliche.
The Golden Gophers used 21 4th-quarter points to nearly pull off the upset of Michigan last week, while the Trojans dug themselves out of a double-digit halftime deficit for the 2nd game in a row (although they still ultimately lost the first one), topping Wisconsin by 17 points 7 days ago.
The victory over the Badgers marked USC’s first conference win as a member of the Big Ten, in a season that has shown the Trojans are capable of playing physical football without being bullied on the line of scrimmage like their defenses of recent Pac-12 memory.
Minnesota's heartbreaking loss at Michigan was the Golden Gophers’ 2nd consecutive loss, as P.J. Fleck remains winless in the Big Ten and against Power 4 competition this season.
Despite Minnesota’s resolve in nearly coming back against the Wolverines, it opened as a home double-digit 'dog against USC. Are the Trojans truly worthy of that much love with a game looming next week against Penn State?
Let's take a look at our USC vs. Minnesota predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
USC vs Minnesota Prediction
- USC vs. Minnesota Pick: Minnesota +8.5
My Minnesota vs. USC best bet is on the Golden Gophers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs Minnesota Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -108 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | -305 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -112 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | +245 |
- USC vs Minnesota Point Spread: USC -8.5
- USC vs Minnesota Over/Under: 49.5 Points
- USC vs Minnesota Moneyline: USC -305 · Minnesota +245
USC vs Minnesota Preview
USC Trojans Betting Preview: Second-Half Stars
Lincoln Riley’s USC program developed a bit of a reputation in 2023 as being a group of quitters and likely not ready for the grit of the Big Ten. If four games in 2024 serve as any evidence, this team has drastically changed course.
USC has done anything but fold in the second half. While only outsourcing opponents 50-48 in the first two quarters, the Trojans drop the hammer in the final 30 minutes of play, where they’ve outscored the opposition 87-23.
The improved performance is on both sides of the ball, too.
Miller Moss has thrown six of his eight passing touchdowns in the second half, and the defense has tightened up its 6.9 yards allowed per play in the first half to 4.8 yards per play in the second against Power Four competition.
The defense as a whole has been markedly better since last season. In 2023, the Trojans allowed 34.4 points and 432.8 yards per game. Those numbers have dropped to 17 and 304.8, respectively, in 2024.
If there is an area for concern this week for the USC defense, however, it will be in the trenches against Darius Taylor. The Trojans rank just 99th in Defensive Line Yards and are 111th nationally with only 19 tackles for loss.
On offense, there has been passing regression, but that’s a given when losing Caleb Williams.
Despite the dropoff, Moss has done a decent job of holding his own, leading the Big Ten in passing with 299.5 yards per game, while spreading the love to five different players who all have at least a dozen receptions.
Running the ball, however, has been a bit more of a struggle in recent weeks against the beefy front sevens of Michigan and Wisconsin.
Leading rusher Woody Marks was held to a season low 3.3 yards per carry against the Badgers, and excluding a 65-yard rush against the Wolverines, Marks had just 35 rushing yards on his 12 other carries.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Gritty Gophers
Depending on who you root for, the Golden Gophers were rather unfortunate to not escape Ann Arbor with a win last week. A controversial penalty on a late offsides kick ultimately spelled the end for the Minnesota upset bid and served as a catalyst for a Big Ten rule change.
While unlucky, the game could still prove to be the perfect launching point for a Minnesota team that outscored Michigan, 21-6, in the second half.
The Golden Gophers struggled to get the running game going against one of the best defensive lines in the country, but USC presents an opportunity for a return to form for Darius Taylor.
Taylor, who found the end zone twice against the Wolverines, averages nearly 5.4 yards per carry for a Golden Gophers offense that is 56th in Rush Success. As previously noted, the USC defense is among the worst in the Big Ten in Defensive Line Yards.
Outside of the run game, Minnesota also must find more success with New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer. Brosmer led the FCS in passing last season, but he’s only found the back of the end zone six times through five games this year.
Minnesota’s offense has been fairly mediocre, but its defense has allowed it to stick around in most games.
The Golden Gophers have done incredibly well against the pass, ranking third in Pass Success, albeit a number aided by playing Alex Orji and Cade McNamara in successive weeks.
A positive trend that emerged from the Michigan game was the Minnesota defense stopping the run for really the first time all season against Power Four competition. The run-heavy Wolverines were held to just 3.6 yards per carry, their second-lowest of the season.
The Golden Gophers must replicate that to keep USC a one-dimensional offense.
Minnesota vs USC Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and USC match up statistically:
USC Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 59 | |
| Quality Drives | 36 | 38 |  |
Minnesota Offense vs. USC Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 99 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 34 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 20 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 26 | 104 |
| PFF Coverage | 43 | 33 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 29 | 120 |
| Middle 8 | 49 | 31 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.8 (59) | 30.0 (122) |
| Rush Rate | 40% (126) | 48% (107) |
USC vs Minnesota Pick & Prediction
There’s no question that USC is the more talented team in this game, but Minnesota presents a more compelling matchup than the current spread would have you believe.
Taylor is a solid running back. While the USC defense is improved, it’s still lacking a bit in the trenches, so I think Taylor is primed for a great outing.
The Golden Gophers run one of the slowest offenses in the country, and they’ll be more than happy just to keep the ball on the ground and out of Moss’ hands.
The Trojans will win this game outright, but mix in some potential Penn-State-look-ahead vibes for USC, and I think Minnesota will do enough to limit the damage and keep the Trojans from running away with this.
Pick: Minnesota +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
How to Watch USC vs Minnesota Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
USC vs Minnesota Betting Trends
- 77% of the tickets but just 39% of the money is on USC to cover the spread.
- 63% of the bets but 15% of the cash is on the over.
USC vs Minnesota Weather
