USC vs. UCLA Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -112 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -108 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
Why You Should Bet UCLA
This battle of future Big Ten foes will feature one of the country’s best defenses against one of the country’s worst defenses.
Just because Lincoln Riley finally stopped giving into whatever blackmail defensive coordinator Alex Grinch had on him does not mean this defense is suddenly a competent unit.
If you watched the game against Oregon, it was clear things have not magically changed.
The Ducks had 552 yards of offense and averaged 8.8 yards per play, the most USC has allowed all season. The Trojans missed nine tackles in the game.
That's a common theme for this defense.
While some Trojans are supposed to prevent anything from getting through them, this USC defense can’t stop anything. This unit ranks 96th in tackling and has missed an absurd 120 tackles this season, an average of more than 10 per game.
Without the ability to keep the play in front of them, teams have consistently broken big plays against USC both through the passing game and running game.
The Trojans are 123rd in the country at defending explosiveness. They have allowed 67 plays of at least 20 yards this season, the second-most in the entire country, trailing only South Florida.
UCLA’s offense isn’t an elite unit by any stretch, but it does two things very well. It runs the ball well, ranking 30th in Success Rate. And it's 35th in passing explosiveness.
USC is extremely vulnerable in these two areas defensively, and the Bruins offense will be able to exploit them.
It doesn’t matter who the Trojans have played; the opposing offense has been able to score. USC ranks 105th in the country in Stop Rate — the percentage of defensive drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs.
USC has allowed 2.72 points per drive to opponents this season. It ranks 123rd in the country, allowing 35.6 points per game. UCLA will have no problem scoring against this defense — everybody does.
And you want to give me seven points before the game even starts?
Why You Should Bet USC
I feel like we’ve reached the bottom of the market on the Trojans.
Yeah, they’ve lost four of their last five. The defense is an absolute mess. Caleb Williams has looked very un-Caleb Williams-like at times this season.
But look at their recent schedule. USC’s past four losses have come against No. 6 Oregon, No. 5 Washington, No. 14 Utah and No. 21 Notre Dame.
That’s a murderer's row of opponents.
Its past two games have come against the Ducks and Huskies. The Trojans are due for a bounce-back spot against an inferior, unranked opponent.
UCLA is that inferior, unranked opponent.
Let’s look at the Bruins’ schedule. They’ve dropped back-to-back games against Arizona and Arizona State by double digits. UCLA is 1-3 against ranked teams this year, beating a Washington State team that has fallen off a cliff.
The Bruins’ other wins this season include Colorado, Stanford, North Carolina Central, San Diego State and Coastal Carolina.
I don’t think UCLA is that good.
I think USC is still pretty good but has been shut down by a brutal schedule. The Trojans can outscore their unranked opponents, including this one.
Let’s talk more about why.
Bruins Refutation
Ianniello: Are we sure that the bottom of the market is a team with one of the worst defenses in the country still being a 6-point favorite against an above-average team?
UCLA has struggled against ranked teams this season. Good thing the Trojans aren't ranked.
There are two types of teams that have beaten USC this season — elite offenses (Washington and Oregon) and elite defenses (Notre Dame and Utah).
Luckily, the Bruins have an elite defense. Chip Kelly might be on the hot seat for this season but D’Anton Lynn certainly is not.
The Bruins lead the Pac-12 in both scoring and total defense, allowing just 16.4 points per game and holding opponents under 290 yards per contest.
I mentioned above how USC doesn’t stop anybody. Well, UCLA ranks 10th in the country in Stop Rate with 74.5% of opponent drives ending in a turnover, punt or turnover on downs. It's 10th at preventing Finishing Drives.
The Trojans’ only chance it outscore its opponents, and the Bruins make it extremely difficult to score on them.
While Williams gets all the attention, USC actually leads the country in rushing touchdowns this year and is No. 1 in the nation in rushing explosiveness.
UCLA might have the best run defense in the country. It's allowed just two rushing touchdowns all season. The Bruins have yielded 70.8 rushing yards per game and 2.3 yards per play; both rank second in the country.
The three best run defenses USC has faced to this point have handed it three of its four losses.
USC has to try and keep up with its defense the entire game. It’s a lot easier for UCLA to do that.
Trojans Refutation
McGrath: The Trojan defense will always be bad. There’s nothing you can do about that.
But even during this brutal stretch of schedule, the offense hasn’t really blinked, save for a letdown performance against Notre Dame.
In the past four games, the Trojans have dropped 151 points. Williams has dropped over 1,200 passing yards with six touchdowns, 15 big-time throws, no interceptions and five turnover-worthy plays.
Lincoln Riley’s offense is still among college football’s best. They’re fifth nationally in EPA per Play and 10th in Success Rate. Williams continues to post gaudy numbers, yet somehow, the running game is even better, with the Trojans leading the nation in rush explosiveness behind Marshawn Llyod’s 7.4 yards per carry.
USC will try and outscore everybody.
Against most opponents, the Trojans can do that. The defense will hold them back from beating CFP contenders like the Ducks and Huskies, but they can outscore everyone else.
The Trojans can outscore the Bruins.
The Bruins have an elite defense, sure, although I think some of their numbers are inflated from shutting down a bunch of lackluster attacks (weak nonconference schedule, Utah with a backup quarterback, Stanford, Arizona State, etc.).
But even as the defense has held up its end of the bargain, the offense hasn’t done enough to post better than a 3-4 conference record. UCLA ranks 95th in EPA per Play, including 111th in EPA per Dropback behind lame-duck quarterback Ethan Garbers.
Even worse, Chip Kelly’s squad folds in scoring position. The Bruins rank 120th nationally in Finishing Drives, the statistic most significantly correlated with covering spreads.
Over the past two weeks, the Bruins have mustered up 17 total points. Sorry, but you can’t, and won’t, hold Williams and Co. down long enough to win with that production level.
If you want to beat USC, you have to outshoot it.
Oregon and Washington could do that — both have quarterbacks in the Heisman conversation.
The Bruins can’t do that.
And, for what it’s worth, the Trojans have been able to stack the box and shut down opposing rushing attacks at times this season. They’ve held six different opponents under five YPC this year — Nevada, Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona, Notre Dame, Oregon), which doesn’t bode well for UCLA.
I’m expecting a convincing win here from USC. I don’t think UCLA has a chance to keep pace.
Bruins Rebuttal
Ianniello: The UCLA offense looked rough against Arizona and Arizona State over the last week weeks, but it was down to their third- and fourth-string quarterbacks.
Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore both got hurt against the Wildcats, with Collin Schlee finishing the game.
Both Garbers and Moore missed last week's game against the Sun Devils, and Schlee, who started, went down with an injury, forcing fourth-stringer Chase Griffin into action. Garbers is expected to return and start against the Trojans.
With Garbers back under center, teams will have to respect the pass, allowing the UCLA run game to thrive. Carson Steele and T.J. Harden are averaging 74.5 and 53.3 yards per game, respectively. They have combined for 11 touchdowns on the ground, and each averages over 5.0 yards per carry.
Steele is terrific at breaking tackles and ranks fourth in the Pac-12 in yards after contact. He's going to run through this USC defense like a drunk uncle juking your little cousins in the backyard at Thanksgiving next week.
As good as Williams is, he’s not perfect and has taken a step back from his Heisman campaign last season. Most notably, Williams has raised his turnover-worthy play rate from 1.8% last season to 4.0% this year. He has 18 turnover-worthy plays this season, which is the most in the Pac-12.
Like most quarterbacks, Williams has really struggled under pressure. He has just eight big-time throws with 17 turnover-worthy plays when under pressure.
He also takes a ton of sacks and has a tendency to try and be a hero, resulting in sacks for massive losses.
Well, guess who ranks No. 1 in the country in getting pressure on the quarterback? The UCLA Bruins.
Star edge rusher Laiatu Latu has racked up a ridiculous 51 quarterback pressures with a 22.8% win rate. He isn’t alone on the defensive front as the Murphy twins, Gabriel and Grayson, have 47 and 41 quarterback pressures, respectively, as well.
This UCLA defense has totaled 36 sacks on the season and has a dominant front seven that will give Williams a ton of trouble on Saturday.
When he's under pressure, he tends to be careless with the ball. UCLA ranks seventh in the country at generating Havoc on defense and has a good matchup to cause Havoc against the Trojans.
Trojans Rebuttal
McGrath: I mentioned how I thought UCLA’s defense was a tad overvalued from games against shabby competition.
It held Coastal Carolina and San Diego State to a combined 1.7 yards per carry on 77 attempts. It held Washington State, Stanford and Colorado to a combined 61 yards on 61 carries.
Those are five of the worst rush offenses in the game. The Bruins’ numbers are inflated from beating down on little guys.
Utah, Oregon State and Arizona all rank much higher in terms of Rush Success Rate and explosiveness, and all three teams managed over 100 rush yards against the Bruins.
You don’t think USC can do the same?
Moreover, UCLA’s pass defense is a tad weak. It's 39th in Pass Success Rate Allowed and 25th in EPA per Pass Allowed. Those are great numbers, but they’re still lagging when battling one of the nation’s best quarterbacks.
I don’t think the UCLA defense is that elite, I just think the Bruins have put up big numbers battling weak offenses.
Once they step up in competition, they flail. They’re 0-2 ATS as an underdog. I expect more of the same on Saturday.
Ianniello: Bet UCLA +6
Frankly, it doesn’t really matter how good the UCLA offense is. The Trojans have allowed at least 34 points in seven straight games.
So, you would need USC to score at least 41 points to cover, something nobody has done against the Bruins all season.
UCLA has an elite defense with a dominant front seven. It ranks No. 1 in pressure grade this season and will be in Williams’ kitchen all day long.
After losing four of the last five games, you have to wonder how many hits the projected top pick in the draft is willing to take here.
The Trojans have been overrated all season. They are just 3-7 against the spread on the year. In fact, our Action Network Betting Power Ratings have them separated by just one point with USC coming in at No. 21 and UCLA at No. 23.
Every game with USC seemingly comes down to who has the ball last just to win the game. I’ll gladly take the six points in my pocket.
McGrath: Bet USC -6
There’s one last thing we haven’t talked about: the motivational factor.
UCLA is on the verge of firing Chip Kelly after the latest string of games. This team is out of conference championship contention. The Bruins’ season is over.
Are we sure they get off the bus? There’s a lot of quit potential in this team — they haven’t covered in three straight, after all.
Meanwhile, this is potentially Caleb Williams’ last college game. The Trojans will want to send one of the best quarterbacks in USC history and a former Heisman winner off on a high note, and fans will show up for him at the Rose Bowl.
I expect USC to shoot out of a cannon here and outscore the Bruins significantly. I don’t see UCLA putting 100% into this game, especially behind guys like Garbers and Kelly.
Fight On!
