The USC Trojans (4-4, 2-4 Big Ten) head to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies (4-4, 2-3) on Saturday night for a Big Ten battle between former Pac-12 teams.
The Trojans snapped a 3-game losing streak last week by toppling Rutgers by a score of 42-20. While the College Football Playoff and Big Ten Championship are out of the picture, bowl eligibility is still a possibility for USC.
Washington finds itself in a similar boat, also sitting at .500 with 2 conference wins. After defeating defending national champion Michigan, 27-17, the Huskies have lost 2 straight to Iowa and Indiana.
USC enters as a -2 road favorite with an over/under of 55.5.
So, where does the betting value lie? Continue reading for my USC vs. Washington predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
USC vs Washington Prediction
- USC vs. Washington Pick: Washington +3
My Washington vs. USC best bet is on the Huskies to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs Washington Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 55.5 -110 / -110 | -130 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 55.5 -110 / -110 | +110 |
- USC vs Washington Point Spread: USC -2 (-110) · Washington +2 (-110)
- USC vs Washington Over/Under: 55.5
- USC vs Washington Moneyline: USC -130 · Washington +110
USC vs Washington Preview
The stakes are actually pretty high for this Pac-12 — I mean, Big Ten — battle in Seattle on Saturday night between a pair of 4-4 clubs.
While neither team will compete for a Big Ten championship or playoff spot this season, the Huskies probably need this game for bowl eligibility with road games at Oregon and at Penn State remaining on their schedule.
USC has an easier remaining schedule, but it's no guarantee the Trojans will reach a bowl if they drop one in Husky Stadium with a remaining slate that includes Nebraska, UCLA and Notre Dame. It wouldn't be the best look for the program or Lincoln Riley if the Trojans didn't get to the postseason, especially after starting out the year with an upset win over LSU.
It should be a competitive game throughout with two very capable offenses, but I'm siding with the home Huskies.
I'm not jumping off the Jedd Fisch bandwagon after UW failed to cover for me in Bloomington last week.
Fisch has treated me as well as any coach over the past two seasons, but Washington simply couldn't overcome a pick-six and a pair of failed fourth-down conversions against a very good Hoosiers squad that was able to play with a lead in the second half, enabling them to lean on their running backs against a Washington defense that's much more vulnerable against the run than pass.
Under new defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, the Huskies have suffocated opposing passing attacks, ranking in the top two nationally in both EPA and Success Rate.
That bodes well against quarterback Miller Moss, who spearheads a USC offense with one of the highest passing rates in the country
This is a good matchup for the Washington defense.
On the other side of the ball, there's a clear path to moving the ball on the USC defense.
You have to hit some run explosives — which star running back Jonah Coleman can certainly do with his 6.7 yards per carry average — and efficiently move the ball in a patient manner through the air against a secondary that excels at limiting explosive passing plays but ranks 116th in Success Rate allowed.
Well, that should work just fine for the Huskies, who have not had much explosiveness through the air but rank sixth nationally in Success Rate.
Plus, quarterback Will Rogers sees his production fall off a cliff when under pressure but is lights-out when kept clean.
That bodes well in this particular matchup against a USC defense that really struggles to generate natural pressure, especially after losing a number of key contributors throughout the season, including its best linebacker and edge rusher.
The Trojans' underlying defensive metrics also suggest potential imminent regression based on the glaring disparity between their success on late downs vs. lack thereof on the more predictive early downs.
Washington checks all of the boxes from an advanced metrics standpoint, ranking in the top 20 nationally in a myriad of categories, including net yards per play (USC is 42nd for what it's worth).
The Huskies just haven't done any of the little things, which have cost them numerous games — most notably against Rutgers in which they finished with a 97% post-game win expectancy.
There have been bad penalties (and too many), special-teams blunders (11-18 on field goal attempts and bad punts), untimely turnovers, failed red-zone execution (16 touchdowns on 31 trips) and just plain, old bad luck (dropped interceptions, 7-for-17 on fourth-down attempts).
While there definitely can be systematic issues in a number of those categories, they also usually contain a ton of variance, especially for a team that I consider to be well-coached overall. I truly believe positive regression looms on the horizon for the Huskies in the "other" bucket of things that happen during a football game.
Plus, it's not like USC has lit the world on fire when it comes to doing all of the little things right. There's a reason the Trojans blew back-to-back 14-point leads against Penn State and Maryland.
They've also failed to close out leads in all three true road games.
USC vs Washington Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Washington match up statistically:
USC Offense vs. Washington Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 89 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 89 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 65 | |
| Quality Drives | 33 | 51 | |
Washington Offense vs. USC Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 59 | |
| Line Yards | 8 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 44 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 69 | |
| Quality Drives | 39 | 55 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 13 | 2 |
| PFF Coverage | 50 | 9 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 47 | 130 |
| Middle 8 | 39 | 77 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.8 (56) | 27.9 (85) |
| Rush Rate | 40% (128) | 49% (103) |
USC vs Washington Pick & Prediction
Ultimately, I just don't see too much separation between these teams before even accounting for home-field advantage and potential matchup edges I see for the Huskies on both sides of the ball.
Washington also should hold a health and rest advantage after recently enjoying its bye week, while USC will be playing a game for the seventh straight week before its upcoming bye.
Therefore, I had to grab the field goal with the home pup in a game that likely comes down to the wire. Let's just hope that doesn't mean Grady Gross will have to make a kick.
For what it's worth, USC is just 44-61-2 ATS (41.9%) on the road since 2005, which makes the Trojans the third-least profitable road team over that period (ahead of only Kansas and Colorado).
Head coach Lincoln Riley is just 2-8 ATS as a road favorite during his time in Southern Cal, including 0-3 this season with three outright losses as favorites of 4.5, 7, and 8.5 points.
Pick: Washington +3 (Play to +2.5)
USC vs Washington Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
USC heads to Seattle on Saturday to take on Washington at 7:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
USC vs Washington Betting Trends
- 63% of bets and 43% of the money are on USC to cover the spread
- 73% of bets and 67% of the money on the moneyline are on USC to win outright
- 51% of bets and 89% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
USC vs Washington Weather
