The USF Bulls are again on the road after flirting with an upset against Alabama last week. The final score doesn't do the Bulls justice, as they were within striking distance until the middle of the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles earned their first victory of the season last week and are 11-point home underdogs. The market currently has a total of 57.5.
I'd be surprised if the Bulls didn't put up a strong effort, especially after last week. Here's my USF vs. Southern Miss prediction and picks.
USF vs Southern Miss Odds, Pick, Prediction
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 58.5 -108 / -112 | -455 |
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 58.5 -108 / -112 | +350 |
- Point Spread: USF -12.5 (-110) · Southern Miss +12.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 58.5
- Moneyline: USF -455 · Southern Miss +350
- Pick: USF -11.5
USF vs Southern Miss Preview
South Florida Betting Preview: Week 2 Result a Positive
The Bulls nearly flipped the entire college football landscape last week, as they could've planted a "For Sale" sign on Alabama HC Kalen Deboer's front lawn in his second game. The Bulls' offense let them down late in the game, as the defense put up a terrific effort until late in the fourth quarter.
QB Byrum Brown wasn't effective through the air, but he continued to display his athleticism on the ground. Brown has to improve with his passing, but he may not need it for this matchup on Saturday.
The Bulls are 123rd in EPA/Pass through two games, and things won't get easier for them against a Southern Miss defense that's 42nd in defensive EPA/play. However, the Bulls are 76th in EPA/run, and the Golden Eagles have been gashed on the ground thus far.
The Bulls, who come into the game 15th in plays/game, will take a typical rapid-pace offensive approach. A heavy dose of RPO and ground-and-pound should be enough to take advantage of a poor Golden Eagles' defensive trench.
The Bulls' strength is on the defensive side of the ball, which was on full display last week. Many casuals will look at last week's final score and assume they were dominated, but the box score doesn't illustrate the whole story.
The Bulls generated 11 Havoc plays against a much more talented Alabama team. The defensive line is legit, and if it wasn't for the late-game garbage-time points, the Bulls would've outgained the Tide for the entire game.
The Tide only had a 33% Success Rate on seven passing downs, which bodes extremely well against the Golden Eagles. If the Bulls could disrupt and contain the Alabama offense for 4/5's of the contest, I can only imagine what they can do against much more inferior competition.
The Bulls are among the top 40 in EPA/Rush, available yards and third-down distance on the defensive side of the ball. They're putting their opponents in extremely tough situations, and the Golden Eagles are one of the worst teams in the nation in EPA/Rush.
The offense should have a field day on the ground, and I expect a massive game from the defense. It's an incredible matchup for the Bulls.
Southern Miss Betting Preview: Rodemaker's Time
The Golden Eagles have their hands full on Saturday, and nothing from last week's victory convinced me they'll be able to win outright.
QB Tate Rodemaker and the offense are amongst the slowest in the entire country, averaging only 45 plays per game.
Rodemaker has to show up for the Golden Eagles, as it's the one aspect of their offense that's been somewhat effective thus far. They're 74th in EPA/Pass, but it's a tough matchup against the Bulls' defense.
The Bulls have shown they're more vulnerable against the pass than on the ground, but their defensive unit is still underrated overall. The Golden Eagles' special teams and defensive units aren't helping the offense, as they're 116th in starting field position.
They can't run the ball at all, although they probably wouldn't have success against the Bulls' defensive trench, regardless. The only way I see the offense generating some points is through the air, and perhaps the defense forces some turnovers.
The Golden Eagles' secondary is the strength of their unit, entering the matchup at 42nd in EPA/Pass allowed. They've also done a decent job putting opponents into tough situations on third down, ranking in the top portion of the country in that category.
The problem is that the rush defense has been a nightmare, and that's all the Bulls are trying to do on offense. They rank outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush allowed and available yards.
Unless the defense forces some interceptions, I have a hard time envisioning the Golden Eagles pulling off the upset.
Rodemaker would need a career day for that to happen.
USF vs Southern Miss Prediction
If the Bulls have a similar defensive effort to last week, I expect them to dominate. They should shut down the ground game, and I believe the defensive front will force Rodemaker into terrible situations.
The Bulls may struggle to throw the ball, but given the matchup, I don't think they'll need to. They should find plenty of running lanes against the Golden Eagles' front, and Brown should be set up for a big day using his legs.
I love the Bulls' defense, and their plus matchup on the ground is more than enough for me to believe that they can cover the number.
Pick: USF -11.5 (Play to -12.5)
How to Watch USF vs Southern Miss Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | M. M. Roberts Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
USF vs Southern Miss Betting Trends
- 77% of the bets are on Southern Miss against the spread against USF, but only 15% of the money is on the same side.
- 85% of the bets are on the under while 95% of the money is also on the under.
