Syracuse vs South Florida Odds
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| South Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
The Syracuse Orange and South Florida Bulls meet in the Sunshine State to close out their seasons in the Boca Raton Bowl on Thursday night.
USF had an amazing turnaround this season under new head coach Alex Golesh, improving to 6-6 after winning just one game the year prior.
Not many players have opted out of this game, so the Bulls will have their full roster and will be motivated to finish the season with a winning record.
A lot of changes are happening with Syracuse right now. Dino Babers has been fired. Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord is coming to play quarterback next year. The list goes on.
The Orange will be without starting quarterback Garrett Shrader for this game, so they may be looking to get this season over with and start a new era.
Syracuse Orange
Shrader missing this game is a big blow to the Syracuse offense. He was the best thing going for an offense that had faded down the stretch.
To make matters worse for Cuse, backup Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is also going to miss this game, which means redshirt freshman Braden Davis — who has taken only 57 snaps this season — will be in line to start. And if it's not Davis, the Orange may try to run the Wildcat with tight end Dan Villari, but that won't work well against a good USF front seven.
The Syracuse rushing attack will have to be effective in this game to take the pressure off Davis, but the problem is that unit hasn't played very well. The Orange finished the season 98th in Rushing Success Rate and 74th in EPA/Rush.
The offensive line hasn't done them many favors, ranking outside the top 60 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed.
Defensively, Syracuse's secondary had a great season and boasted the 19th-best PFF coverage grade. However, the defense couldn't defend the run well.
The Orange allowed nearly 4.5 yards per carry down the stretch this season and closed out the year ranking 101st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
They also really struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks, allowing a 51.4% positive EPA per play percentage on quarterback runs, Sports Info Solutions. That's bad news against a quarterback as dynamic as USF's Byrum Brown.
South Florida Bulls
The key to the Bulls offense is running the ball effectively.
They run the ball on over 56% of offensive plays, and while they haven't been good from a Success Rate standpoint, they sure are explosive. The Bulls rank 14th nationally in rushing explosiveness, and a lot of that can be attributed to Brown at quarterback.
Brown took over for an injured Gerry Bohanon early in the season and has been the reason why the Bulls have reached bowl eligibility. Excluding sacks, Brown is averaging 6.2 yards per carry with 30 runs over 10 yards and 49 missed tackles forced, per PFF.
Through the air, Brown set the school record for passing yards in a season with 3,101 while also throwing 23 touchdowns and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.
He's played incredibly well down the stretch, putting up a positive EPA play rate of 50% since Week 10 — a top-35 mark in college football.
On the defensive side of the ball, South Florida's front seven has been very good at stopping the run, finishing top-45 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
That's going to play a key role in this game in this game since Shrader is out for Syracuse, which will likely make the Orange utilize the ground game often.
Syracuse vs South Florida
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Syracuse and South Florida match up statistically:
USF Offense vs Syracuse Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 72 | 69 |  |
Syracuse Offense vs USF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 115 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 91 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 92 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 118 | 20 |
| PFF Coverage | 114 | 19 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 88 | 67 |
| Middle 8 | 107 | 82 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.5 (3) | 26.0 (43) |
| Rush Rate | 56.2% (60) | 62.6% (9) |
Syracuse vs South Florida
Pick, Prediction
When it comes to bowl games, opt-outs, injuries and motivation play such a big factor nowadays.
South Florida has the edge in all three categories with its program on the rise and Syracuse going through a transition period with a third-string quarterback under center.
Shrader's absence will be a huge detriment to Syracuse because of the team's inability to run the football. USF excelled at stopping the run this season and should be able to dominate this game up front considering it ranks top-30 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Putting the offense on the shoulders of a third-stringer who has taken 57 snaps all season is a really bad scenario for the Orange.
On the other side, the Boca Raton Bowl will give Brown a chance to show out on a national stage. His dual-threat ability has been huge for the Bulls, and with how poor Syracuse has been at defending mobile quarterbacks, I think a huge game is in store for him.
With motivation, injuries and opt-outs favoring South Florida, I like the value on the Bulls at +3.5.
Pick: South Florida +3.5
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