Utah State vs Boise State Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -104 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +540 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -118 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -800 |
The Utah State Aggies roll into Boise on a heater. Their 35-31 win over San Jose State last week gained them bowl eligibility and put them on a season-high, three-game win streak. The Aggies started the season just 1-4 but have since turned things around and won five of their past six games.
Utah State is playing its best football of the season, but it might not be enough to take down the Broncos. Call it a rivalry if you want, but it hasn't been a competitive one.
Boise State leads the all-time series 21-5 and has won 18 of the past 19. The Aggies haven't won a game in the series since 2015 and haven't won in Boise since 1996.
Sure, they're playing good ball right now — but are they good enough to end this losing streak? The oddsmakers don't think so, as Utah State enters as a 16-point underdog.
Utah State Aggies
Yes, the Aggies have been winning games. But look at the teams they've beaten:
- New Mexico (2-9, 0-7 Mountain West)
- Hawaii (3-9, 2-5 Mountain West)
- San Jose State (6-4, 4-3 Mountain West), which has a decent record but couldn't stop the Aggies' run game on the road.
Speaking of the Aggies' run game, they'll turn to it more often than not against the Broncos. Utah State ranks 27th in rush play rate.
Unfortunately for them, there hasn't been much success on the ground as Utah State ranks 108th when it comes to Rush Play Success Rate. When it comes to the passing game, things aren't much better, as the Aggies come in at 105th in Pass Play Success Rate.
The defense has been solid when it comes to the air, ranking 25th in Defensive Passing Success Rate, but there isn't much else to write home about. Utah State ranks outside the top 75 in both Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Finishing Drives.
I struggle to find anywhere where this Aggies team will have a significant advantage over the Broncos on either side of the ball.
Boise State Broncos
Much like the Aggies, Boise State had a rough start to its season. After quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal and the Broncos fired their offensive coordinator, some lost all hope.
However, it seems that's exactly what they needed, as the Broncos have gone 6-1 since.
BSU brought in Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator, and Taylen Green became the starting quarterback. The two have since led Boise to first place in the Mountain Division and boast the second highest-scoring offense in the conference.
Boise State ranks inside the top five of the conference in both passing and rushing. The Broncos' ability to find success both through the air and on the ground is what makes them truly elite.
Defensively, they're among the top ranks as well. Boise State leads the nation in Defensive Passing Success Rate and is the seventh-best team in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Utah State vs Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah State and Boise State match up statistically:
Utah State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 1 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 39 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 47 | |
| Finishing Drives | 105 | 7 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Boise State Offense vs. Utah State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 25 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 36 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 82 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 25 |
| PFF Coverage | 77 | 23 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 57 | 53 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.6 (16) | 27.3 (89) |
| Rush Rate | 58.6% (29) | 59.0% (27) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Utah State vs Boise State Betting Pick
Boise State is far and away the better team, holding advantages on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. When you break it down, it's hard to see any way this Utah State team can remain even somewhat close against Boise State.
Despite all of that, this is still a rivalry game. It's been extremely one-sided for the majority of the series, but Utah State comes into this game riding a wave of confidence. There's also the daunting 16-point spread that comes with backing Boise State in this one.
Be that as it may, I think the Aggies' wave of confidence comes crashing down in Boise. The Broncos are 5-2 against the spread since Koetter and Green took over their positions and are 5-1-1 in conference games.
Our Action PRO Projections make Boise State an 18-point favorite, and I feel comfortable backing them as high as a 17-point favorite.
Pick: Boise State -16.5 (Play to -17) |
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