Utah State vs Hawaii Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -435 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +327 |
They always say to save the best for last.
Well, that spot has been Hawaii's for many years, and unfortunately, it has not been the best spot for great football as the Rainbow Warriors are 2-8. They come into this matchup on a three-game losing streak and are double-digit underdogs to a team that has struggled equally as much on offense.
Speaking of their opponents, the Utah State Aggies got back to the right side as they picked up a victory over New Mexico.
This hasn't quite been the year many expected from the Aggies, but losing Logan Bonner was significant and has caused them to drastically alter their scheme.
However, that alteration supports our angle for this matchup.
Utah State Aggies
Star quarterback Logan Bonner hasn't played since Sept. 24 as he suffered a leg injury and is out for the year. What's noteworthy about his absence is that he's still the leading passer on the team, despite only appearing in four games.
Backup Cooper Legas has been under center for the majority of the season and his results have varied. Surprisingly, he only completed 48% of his passes against New Mexico and averaged just 5.5 yards per completion. Regardless, the Aggies still won.
Calvin Tyler and Robert Briggs are why Utah State can keep the ball out of Legas' hands.
Tyler has had a heavy workload on the ground and has been somewhat productive. He's averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season, but it's Briggs who has become the change of pace back.
We should see these two a ton when you consider that Hawaii is 131st in yards per rush and will be outmanned in the trenches. Look for the Aggies to run until the Rainbow Warriors prove they can stop them.
Hawaii Warriors
It hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows for the Rainbow Warriors offense.
Hawaii is averaging just 17.1 points per game, which ranks 120th in the country. Behind Brayden Schager, Hawaii runs a pass-heavy offense but has lacked explosiveness. Schager is averaging just 5.7 yards per completion, which ranks 128th in the country.
In addition to the passing struggles, this is not the team Hawaii should test through the air. The strength of Utah State has been its secondary. The Aggies are third in opponent completion percentage and 16th in yards per pass.
If Hawaii wants to sustain drives, it'll need to keep the ball on the ground. For all their prowess against the pass, the Aggies have struggled to stop the run. Utah State is 116th in yards per rush allowed and the Rainbow Warriors are 24th in rushing Success Rate.
Utah State vs Hawaii Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah State and Hawaii match up statistically:
Utah State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 114 | 106 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 11 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 65 | 130 | |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Hawaii Offense vs. Utah State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 118 | 22 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 74 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 64 | 59 | |
| Finishing Drives | 124 | 72 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 77 | 129 |
| PFF Coverage | 83 | 122 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 56 | 93 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.3 (15) | 25.1 (37) |
| Rush Rate | 57.9% (38) | 45.5% (112) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus ,and SportSource Analytics.
Utah State vs Hawaii Betting Pick
Both of these teams play fast, but it will be in their best interests to keep the ball on the ground. That means there will be long, extended drives and the clock will continue to tick away.
Everything here points to the under, especially when you combine the game script with just how poorly each offense has been of late.
Take this under, and go to bed early.
