The Utah Utes (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) look to rebound from their 23-10 loss to Arizona when they head to Tempe on Friday night to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1, 1-1).
The Utes lost their first game of the season two weeks ago against Arizona in what was a terrible offensive performance.
They had a bye week to rest up and get things figured out, but the question mark in this game is whether or not Cam Rising will play in what has been an ongoing saga all season.
Arizona State had really low expectations coming into the season but has surprised everyone, going 4-1 through its first 5 games. The Sun Devils came from behind to beat Kansas, 35-31, last weekend and will now be looking to knock off the No. 16 team in the country.
ASU has lost its past four meetings against Utah, including a 55-3 defeat in Salt Lake City last season.
My Utah vs. Arizona State odds, pick and predictions for Friday, Oct. 11 are below. Let's dig into my college football picks.
Utah vs Arizona State Prediction
- Utah vs Arizona State Pick: Utah -3.5
My Arizona State vs Utah best bet is on the Utes to cover the spread. Find the best line on our NCAAF odds page.
Utah vs Arizona State Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Arizona St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
- Utah vs Arizona State Point Spread: Utah +3.5 (-110) · Arizona State -3.5 (-110)
- Utah vs Arizona State Total: Over/Under 45
- Utah vs Arizona State Moneyline: Utah -175 · Arizona State +145
Utah vs Arizona State Preview
Utah Utes Betting Preview: Quarterback Questions Continue
The line for Utah has been bouncing around because of Rising's status. On Sunday, Utah was as low as a 3.5-point favorite, but then on Monday, Utah got bet up to as high as a -6.5 with rumors swirling that Rising might play.
However, this line has settled to back around four points, which indicates Rising may not play.
That means Isaac Wilson would again be the starter, but he really hasn't been that great this season.
The Utes fell behind against Arizona two weeks ago and Wilson was forced to throw the ball 40 times, which didn't end well. He's really only effective in the short-to-intermediate passing game, which should work fine against Arizona State.
Utah needs to capitalize on its scoring opportunities in this game. The Utes outgained Arizona in their previous game, but turnovers and scoring just 10 points on four trips inside the 40-yard line cost them. Arizona State is the worst team in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed, so they should fare better offensively on Friday night.
Utah is likely going to have to lean on its defense to win this game, which isn't a problem because it has one of the best defensive units in the country.
The Utes are second nationally in Success Rate Allowed because they're good against both the run and the pass. Utah ranks top-20 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate Allowed, but in this game, the Utes are going to have to stop the run.
They stacked the box and held Ollie Gordon to only 42 yards rushing and have been dominating up front, ranking 26th in Defensive Line Yards and seventh in Stuff Rate.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Skattebo Leading the Way
Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt has had an interesting season.
He's a very good quarterback throwing in the short-to-intermediate range, but as soon as he has to throw the ball deep, he's very limited. Even though the Sun Devils put up 35 points and Leavitt had four touchdown passes against Kansas, he went just 14-for-24 for 157 yards.
The Sun Devils offense centers around running back Cam Skattebo. As Texas Tech found out two games ago, if you can shut Skattebo down, you can pretty much shut down ASU's entire offense.
He's really only had two big games this season — against Kansas and Mississippi State, which are 123rd and 109th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
In fact, Arizona State hasn't faced a top-50 rushing defense yet this season but will now play one of the best.
Defensively, Arizona State is surprisingly in the top 35 in the country in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. I say surprisingly because ASU completely rebuilt its front seven through the transfer portal.
However, Kansas was the first good rushing attack the Sun Devils have seen this season, and Devin Neal averaged over five yards per carry with a pretty high EPA/Rush.
Arizona State has struggled to limit teams' scoring opportunities. The Sun Devils are last in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed, with their opponents averaging 5.2 points every time they cross the 40-yard line. Kansas scored a touchdown all five times they crossed the 40-yard line last Saturday.
Utah vs Arizona State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and Arizona State match up statistically:
Utah Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 71 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 80 | 54 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 106 | 134 | |
| Quality Drives | 73 | 70 |  |
Arizona State Offense vs. Utah Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 7 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 12 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 101 | 91 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 86 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 85 | 92 |
| Middle 8 | 69 | 5 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.5 (125) | 27.3 (66) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (46) | 62% (11) |
Utah vs Arizona State Pick & Prediction
Arizona State is pretty fortunate to be 4-1 right now. Three of its four wins have come by one score, and the fact that the Sun Devils are the worst team in Finishing Drives Allowed is a major red flag for regression.
Even though Utah only scored 10 points against Arizona, it put up close to 400 yards of offense and should be able to move the ball against the Sun Devils.
Skattebo has been one of the best running backs in the country but hasn't faced an elite run defense this season. Additionally, he's padded his stats against two of the worst Power 4 run defenses in the country, so I don't think he'll be that effective on Friday night.
If Rising plays, it will be a big boost to Utah, but even if he doesn't, I still think the Utes are undervalued here on the road. Kyle Whittingham has been profitable against the spread on the road over his career.
Pick: Utah -3.5 via ESPN Bet
How to Watch Utah vs Arizona State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Mountain American Stadium, Tempe, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 11 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Utah vs Arizona State Weather
