Utah vs Oklahoma State Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 52.5 -115 / -105 | +115 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 / -105 | -140 |
The Utah Utes (3-0) and Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) meet in Stillwater on Saturday, Sept. 21 for a top-25 showdown with massive implications.
Utah has gotten by unscathed through its first three games, but it hasn't been overly impressive. The Utes dominated Baylor for the first half in Week 2 but had to battle Utah State last week before eventually pulling away in the second half.
The success of the Utes this season truly centers around quarterback Cam Rising and whether or not he's going to play. Issac Wilson filled in nicely last week with three passing touchdowns, but the Oklahoma State defense is a much tougher challenge.
Oklahoma State took care of business last weekend, routing in-state rival Tulsa, 45-10. The Cowboys had a massive scare for their College Football Playoff hopes in Week 2, coming from behind to beat Arkansas in overtime.
The Cowboys returned pretty much everybody from last year's team that won 10 games and went to the Big 12 Championship, so if they want to make the CFP, they have to win games like this to boost their resume.
Kickoff will take place at 4 p.m. ET on FOX, and Oklahoma State enters as a -2.5 favorite with an over/under of 52.5. Let's dive into my Utah vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
Utah Utes Football
Rising's status is very important to this game, and we're unlikely to know his status until game time.
He has a big cut on his right ring finger that required stitches, and while it was reported that he was going to play early in the week, things seemed to have changed given the line movement that occurred on Wednesday night.
If Rising can't go, Issac Wilson will be the starter.
Wilson, the younger brother of Denver Broncos quarterback Zach Wilson, hasn't been that great, but it's a limited sample size.
Utah might be without Cam Rising again this weekend.
Can Isaac Wilson pull off an upset at Oklahoma State? pic.twitter.com/p0YkZYVIcl
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) September 19, 2024
With issues under center, Utah is going to lean pretty heavily on its rushing attack, which might be a good thing given how good Micah Bernard has been this year.
He carried the ball only 16 times in 2023 but has completely taken over the starter role, averaging 6.7 yards per attempt through the first three games.
Bernard has been very difficult to bring down, averaging 4.5 yards per carry after contact. Given how poor the Oklahoma State defense has been against the run this season, he'll be pivotal in this game regardless of who starts at quarterback.
Defensively, the Utes will have to limit Ollie Gordon II on the ground. Luckily for them, they're equipped to do just that.
Utah lost only one starter in the defensive front from last season, and the Utes are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry while ranking 37th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
The best unit on this Utah team is without a doubt its secondary. The Utes rank top-25 in both EPA/Pass and Passing Success Rate Allowed but most notably are No. 1 in the country in on-target percentage allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
Cowboys quarterback Alan Bowman is not a very accurate passer. He ranked 63rd in on-target percentage last year, which is a welcome sign for the road team.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Football
The Oklahoma State offense centers around Gordon at running back, but he's been completely shut down so far this season. Oklahoma State ranks 120th in Rushing Success Rate, and Gordon himself is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry with a negative EPA.
The problem is that opponents are stacking the box against him. In fact, half of his rush attempts have come against a box with seven or more players.
The offensive line hasn't been doing a great job of opening holes for him either, ranking 86th nationally in Offensive Line Yards.
That means there has been a lot of pressure on Bowman and the passing game.
Bowman has been really efficient this season, but the games against South Dakota State and Tulsa have skewed his numbers a bit. For example, he posted a PFF passing grade of just 63.3 against Arkansas and barely completed over 50% of his passes.
Because the Razorbacks completely shut down Gordon, Bowman was forced to throw the ball 48 times. That's not ideal for this Oklahoma State offense.
On the other side, the defense nearly brought back everyone from last year, but Arkansas still torched the Pokes. Bobby Petrino's offense put up 648 yards of offense, but the Cowboys forced three turnovers, which ended up being the difference in the game.
Most concerning was just how well Arkansas ran the ball. Ja'Quinden Jackson averaged 6.2 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns on the ground.
If the Pokes can't force Utah into passing situations — potentially with a backup quarterback — it could be a long day for the Cowboys defense.
Utah vs Oklahoma State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Utah Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 49 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 45 | 7 | |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 59 | |
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Utah Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 120 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 51 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 9 | |
| Quality Drives | 66 | 14 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 94 |
| PFF Coverage | 34 | 119 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 112 | 23 |
| Middle 8 | 33 | 63 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.0 (122) | 22.9 (9) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (33) | 45% (101) |
Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Whether or not Rising plays in this game is obviously important, but given the line movement on Wednesday night, it seems he's trending toward either not playing or being limited with those stitches in his finger.
If that's the case, this game is really going to be decided by how effective Utah is at both running the ball and stopping Gordon.
Oklahoma State hasn't been great at stopping the run this season, and if Bernard can run the ball effectively, it will take a lot of pressure off whoever's playing quarterback for Utah.
On the other side, if Gordon continues to struggle to get things going on the ground and Bowman has to throw the ball 40-plus times against a top-25 secondary, then that really gives Utah an advantage.
Even if Rising doesn't play, I like the value on Utah at +2.5. And if he does play, then Utah will most likely close as a favorite.
Additionally, Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has been really good as a road 'dog over the past decade, going 15-4 against the spread.
Pick: Utah +2.5
