Utah vs Oregon Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 59.5 -115o / -105u | -132 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 59.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
The College Football Playoff is slipping out of focus for the Pac-12, but plenty of drama remains for the conference title game and Rose Bowl berth.
With a single conference loss, the path is set for Oregon and Utah: survive and advance.
The Ducks took their first conference loss in Autzen against Washington in Week 11, sending the team into a logjam at the top of the conference standings. A win over the Utes all but guarantees a trip to Las Vegas to compete for the conference crown, as the Ducks own a tiebreaker over UCLA.
Utah holds a key tiebreaker over USC, but a loss to Oregon means it would need plenty of help to reach the conference championship.
Since losing to UCLA on Oct. 8, the Utes have rattled off four straight victories. Utah is firing on all cylinders with two recent covers that included holding Stanford to just 22 yards rushing.
Utah will end the season at Colorodo, making this game with the Ducks the last hurdle to Las Vegas. Oregon will seek revenge after taking two losses in a two-week span to Utah last season.
Utah Utes
Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is happy with his defense over the past 10 quarters of play. The Utes limited Stanford to 177 total yards, while a potent Arizona offense that beat UCLA racked up just 203 yards passing.
Havoc has been a huge part of the Utah defense, as it ranks 16th nationally in that area. Edge rusher Gabe Reid is top-20 individually in pass rush productivity, per PFF.
Gabe Reid able to sack Caleb Williams for a 20 yard loss pic.twitter.com/DJO1LlAcU3
— Tyler Browning (@DiabeticTyler) October 20, 2022
The defense has been stingy against the pass, which has helped the Utes grow into a top-10 offense.
On offense, Utah ranks in the top 10 in Success Rate both through the air and on the ground while also sitting top-five in Havoc Allowed. Although Cam Rising has had crucial turnovers in the red zone this season, the junior has thrown just four interceptions.
The play-action pass has been a key weapon for Rising, but the run game has been a rock for the Utes all season. Tavion Thomas rushed for a season-high 176 yards against Stanford, posting six runs over 10 yards.
TAVION THOMAS FOUR 1ST HALF TDs#CFB
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 6, 2021
Oregon Ducks
Since the season-opening loss to Georgia, the Ducks have been rolling in head coach Dan Lanning's first season.
Oregon had covered seven of its eight games heading into the Week 11 home match against Washington. However, the Huskies did what the Ducks have done to every other team: score on almost every drive.
Oregon missed just four tackles the entire game but allowed Washington a whopping 69% Success Rate on passing downs. The Ducks also uncharacteristically fumbled at the goal line after posting nearly the best grade in college football when it comes to Havoc Allowed.
Washington produced just 10 pressures on the game, a stark contrast to a Utah team that's aggressive in sending blitz.
Bo Nix continues to lead a Heisman campaign, as he's graded as the sixth-best quarterback in NFL rating, per PFF.
Nix is having the best season of his career from a clean box score perspective. The senior has not logged a turnover-worthy play since Week 5 against Stanford. More importantly, he hasn't thrown an interception or recorded a turnover-worthy play in 79 pressured dropbacks this season.
BO NIX LET IT FLY ✈️
(via @CFBONFOX)pic.twitter.com/Y1MadtslIr
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) November 13, 2022
The Ducks leave plenty to be desired defensively, ranking near-dead last on third downs and in defending pass explosiveness. Despite serving as coordinator for a National Champion defense last year, Lanning leads a group that's outside the top 100 in Havoc and Finishing Drives.
The Ducks have been mid-FBS in Defensive Success Rate and defending explosiveness in standard downs but evolve into one of the nation's worst defenses in passing downs.
Utah vs Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and Oregon match up statistically:
Utah Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 119 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 69 | 90 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 103 | |
| Finishing Drives | 45 | 104 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon Offense vs. Utah Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 66 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 27 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 3 | 63 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 55 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 79 | 53 |
| PFF Coverage | 20 | 47 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 88 | 50 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (107) | 26.1 (58) |
| Rush Rate | 56.5% (49) | 55.8% (54) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Utah vs Oregon Betting Pick
Utah's ability to remain ahead of the chains on offense is crucial to the handicap. The Utes have the 10th-highest rate of snaps in standard downs with a Success Rate rank of eighth.
Whittingham prefers a heavy rush offense in 12 or 13 personnel, putting as many blocking tight ends as possible on the field. An early-season injury to Brant Kuithe has opened the door for tight end Dalton Kincaid to log 65 targets and seven touchdowns on the season.
Oh my god Dalton Kincaid 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/c9KbRsEWAj
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 16, 2022
Only two teams in college football have given up more first downs via the opposing pass than Oregon, indicating Kincaid and wide receiver Devaughn Vele will have a command successful targets against the Ducks.
Utah will have the advantage on offense to sustain drives, drain clock and take advantage of an Oregon defense that allows 4.2 points to opponent scoring opportunities.
Lanning mentioned the aggressiveness of a Utah defense that sends more than four rushers on 28% of snaps. While Oregon's one of the best teams in the nation in pass blocking, left tackle TJ Bass has allowed 17 pressures this season. Reid primarily lines up on the right tackle, but edge Jonah Elliss ranks second on the team in pressures and will be paired up with Bass.
Action Network projects this game at Oregon -2, but the Ducks will meet one of the best defensive teams on their schedule. That number assumes Nix and his offensive line are at full strength, as there are questions leading up to kickoff.
Without Nix, the point spread projection would favor Utah on the road against Ty Thompson.
Look for Utah to rack up successful drives that eat clock and end in points. The Utes' aggressiveness on defense will produce pressured pockets and allow points off explosives.
The Oregon defense has yet to see an offense with heavy tight end personnel, giving Utah a large advantage on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Utah + 3 or Better |
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