UTEP vs Western Kentucky Prediction, Pick, Odds for Thursday, October 10

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-2) will always be the pride of the commonwealth, even when they struggle. The Hilltoppers are hosting the UTEP Miners (0-5) on Thursday evening in Bowling Green, Kentucky at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

The Miners are having a horrific season and weren’t remotely competitive last week against Sam Houston State, 41-21.

Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers nearly pulled off a massive upset on the road at Boston College (21-20) before their bye week, so there's a lot of reason to be optimistic about their outlook for the remainder of the regular season.

Oddsmakers have the Hilltoppers as 19.5-point favorites on the spread and the total set at 57.5.

Let's dive into the matchup breakdown for Thursday night's Conference USA clash. My UTEP vs. Western Kentucky predictions are below.

UTEP vs Western Kentucky Prediction

• UTEP vs Western Kentucky Pick: Western Kentucky Team Total Over 38.5 Points

My UTEP vs Western Kentucky best bet is on the Hilltoppers' team total over, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Thursday, Oct. 10

8 p.m. ET

ESPNU

UTEP Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+19.5 -110	57.5 -110 / -110	+700

Western Kentucky Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-19.5 -110	57.5 -110 / -110	-1100

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• UTEP vs Western Kentucky Point Spread: UTEP +19.5 (-110) · Western Kentucky -19.5 (-110)
• UTEP vs Western Kentucky Total: Over/Under 57.5
• UTEP vs Western Kentucky Moneyline: UTEP +700 · Western Kentucky -1900

UTEP vs Western Kentucky Preview

UTEP Miners Betting Preview: Expect Struggles to Continue

It only gets tougher for UTEP, a program that was on the rise just a couple of seasons ago. The Miners now find themselves 0-5 and are nearly three-touchdown underdogs on the road.

There's no questioning that their schedule hasn't been the easiest, but their opponents haven’t exactly been elite either. They allowed 518 yards to SHSU last week and entered the matchup with below-average offensive numbers.

The Miners' offense has been a complete disaster thus far. They rank outside the top 100 in the following offensive metrics:

• Rush and Pass Success Rate
• Line Yards
• Havoc Allowed
• Finishing and Quality Drives

Despite those mind-numbing statistics, they're averaging 24 seconds per play, which is 20th in the nation. Just as I mentioned last week, they're going nowhere fast.

The Hilltoppers' defense has poor metrics, but it hasn't allowed opponents to sustain quality or finish drives.

Quarterback Cade McConnell got the start last week and had mixed results. He threw for 194 yards, one touchdown and one interception. There's no reason to have faith in the offense, and I feel like it's bound to get boatraced here.

Defensively, it doesn’t get any better. The Miners are 61st in PFF tackling, but I'll spare your appetite and not dive deep into their defensive metrics.

They do nothing particularly well besides tackling and have been shredded on the ground and through the air.

I'm not going to back the Miners here, no matter how ridiculously high the number climbs.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview: Trust the Offense

Western Kentucky should be 4-1, as it dominated Boston College a couple of weeks ago before letting up a 17-point lead late.

However, the Hilltoppers are still in decent position as they're 1-0 in conference play.

Coming off a bye, I expect a solid effort from head coach Tyson Helton's team.

Offensively, this is a tremendous matchup for WKU’s aerial attack.

Quarterback Caden Veltkamp wasn’t projected to be the starter to begin the season, but he's been spectacular. He's been a bit careless with the ball, but he's completing 70% of his passes with eight touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Hilltoppers have struggled to run the ball, but luckily, this is an incredible matchup against an awful Miners defense. UTEP ranks outside the top 100 in defensive rushing and passing success rate.

The Hilltoppers are also top-60 in passing success rate and Havoc allowed, so they should keep the pocket clean for Veltkemp for most of the night. The Miners have a non-existing secondary and pass rush, so there's a lot to look forward to for WKU’s offense.

I would normally be concerned about the defense, but it gets a soft matchup. It's also 16th in PFF tackling, so even if the Miners break some runs or get some separation in the secondary, there shouldn’t be many missed tackles or explosive plays to worry about.

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UTEP vs Western Kentucky

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTEP and Western Kentucky match up statistically:

UTEP Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	103	88
Line Yards	108	78
Pass Success	115	128
Havoc	131	122
Finishing Drives	130	59
Quality Drives	131	54

Western Kentucky Offense vs. UTEP Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	106	99
Line Yards	104	88
Pass Success	61	105
Havoc	58	108
Finishing Drives	76	69
Quality Drives	97	113

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	61	16
PFF Coverage	116	126
Special Teams SP+	134	80
Middle 8	90	61
Seconds per Play	24.4 (20)	25.2 (25)
Rush Rate	46% (115)	46% (112)

UTEP vs Western Kentucky Pick & Prediction

I love Western Kentucky’s team total. You can snag a 38.5 right now at BetMGM, and I personally don’t think that’s high enough.

I don’t think the Miners can be trusted to contribute to the overall total, but the passing attack of the Hilltoppers should dominate.

There should be plenty of offensive possessions for the Hilltoppers, especially since the Miners strangely like to go quick on offense.

Expect a strong effort off of the bye from WKU.

Pick: Western Kentucky Team Total Over 38.5 Points

• 54% of the bets and 77% of the money is on Western to cover against UTEP.
• 72% of the bets and 77% of the money is on the over.