Since their upset loss to Northern Illinois, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) have become a freight train, running through their opposition.
The next team in their path this Saturday will be the Virginia Cavaliers (5-4), who snapped a three-game losing streak the last time we saw them.
Notre Dame is getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers in this matchup. They have outscored their opposition 183 to 37 over their last four games.
However, the Cavaliers are an enigma. They look solid on paper but have not been consistently produced.
Notre Dame enters this matchup as a 22.5-point favorite on the spread with a 50.5-point over/under.
How can we factor all this into an angle for this matchup? Let's find out as I make my Virginia vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks.
Virginia vs Notre Dame Prediction
- Virginia vs Notre Dame Pick: 1Q Under 10.5
My Virginia vs Notre Dame best bet is on the first-quarter Under, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Virginia vs Notre Dame Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
- Virginia vs Notre Dame Point Spread: Virginia +22.5 (-110) · Notre Dame -22.5 (-110)
- Virginia vs Notre Dame Total: Over/Under 50.5
- Virginia vs Notre Dame Moneyline: Virginia +1000 · Notre Dame -2000
Virginia vs Notre Dame Preview
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview: Enigmatic Performance
As mentioned above, this Virginia team has been tough to figure out. Their offensive line has performed well, they have an efficient quarterback in Anthony Colandrea, and they play with tempo.
However, they rank 70th in Rush Success Rate and 95th in Pass Success Rate, averaging 25 points per game. Now, they come into this matchup off a bye, but getting off to a hot start is far from a given against this Notre Dame defense.
The Fighting Irish secondary has been the best in the country regarding Pass Success Rate Allowed. That stems from great coverage and pressure in the pocket as Notre Dame ranks sixth in PFF's Coverage grades and 10th in sack rate.
With Virginia's passing attack likely to be shut down, the ground game will need to get things going on early downs, although that is also far from a given.
The Cavaliers average just 3.7 yards per carry and rank 63rd in Early Down EPA. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish rank fourth in Early Downs EPA defensively and surrender 3.9 yards per rush.
The outlook for Virginia's offense in this one is bleak, even with extra preparation.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Dominant on the Ground
I touched on how good this Notre Dame team has been over the last month. Much of their domination stems from controlling contests with their ground game. They should be able to continue that trend in this matchup.
The Fighting Irish are fourth in yards per rush and will hold a considerable edge in the trenches as they outrank the Cavaliers 25 to 101 in Line Yards. However, the offensive production won't stop there.
Virginia ranks 110th in Pass Success Rate Allowed and 83rd in PFF's coverage grades. However, Notre Dame's passing attack is more efficient than explosive, as it only ranks 79th in yards per pass.
We should see them emerge and establish their presence on the ground with a methodical first quarter.
Virginia vs Notre Dame
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Virginia Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 68 |  |
| Line Yards | 37 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 95 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 3 | |
Notre Dame Offense vs. Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 63 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 29 | 103 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 84 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 98 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 93 | 18 |
| PFF Coverage | 83 | 6 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 50 | 70 |
| Middle 8 | 102 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (42) | 28.5 (101) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (95) | 56% (43) |
Virginia vs Notre Dame Pick & Prediction
There has not been much movement in the market for this matchup. However, the lines set indicate Notre Dame will control this matchup without Virginia doing much counterpunching on the scoreboard.
We can use that to our advantage in the derivative market. Notre Dame is not a team that has gotten off to many fast starts this season, and if they keep the ball on the ground in the early going, it's hard to see them having time to score twice in the first quarter.
That's why I'm on the first quarter under here, as the most likely score we see after 15 minutes is 7-0 Notre Dame.
Pick: 1st quarter Under 10.5 (-118) | Play to 10.5 (-125)
Virginia vs Notre Dame Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC |
Virginia vs Notre Dame will be played at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on NBC.
