The Virginia Cavaliers (4-4, 2-3 ACC) travel to Pennsylvania on Saturday to take on the Pitt Panthers (7-1, 3-1) at 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
The Panthers are coming off their first loss of the season — a 48-25 blowout at the hands of SMU, which did major damage do their long-shot College Football Playoff hopes and hurts them in the ACC race.
Virginia, meanwhile, has lost 3 straight, most recently falling at home against North Carolina by a score of 41-14.
Pitt enters this game as a -7.5 favorite with an over/under of 57. So, where does the betting value lie in this Saturday night ACC clash?
Let's take a look at my Virginia vs Pitt predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Virginia vs Pitt Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 57 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 57 -110 / -110 | -300 |
- Virginia vs Pitt Point Spread: Virginia +7.5 (-110) · Pitt -7.5 (-110)
- Virginia vs Pitt Total: Over/Under 57
- Virginia vs Pitt Moneyline: Virginia +240 · Pitt -300
Virginia vs Pitt Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Pitt vs. Virginia best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
PASS
Against the Spread
Virginia vs Pitt Pick: Virginia+7.5
Over/Under
PASS
Virginia Cavaliers vs Pitt Panthers College Football Preview
I haven't bought this Pitt team all season, and I'm not about to start after seeing the Panthers get their doors blown off in Dallas last week.
A loss like that was definitely coming after Pitt's luck-fueled 7-0 start, which included a pair of late double-digit comebacks against Cincy and West Virginia, a fortunate two-point home win over Cal and a turnover-assisted blowout at home against Syracuse in which the Panthers had five interceptions — three of which they took to the house.
Their other three wins came against UNC, Kent State and Youngstown State. Color me less than impressed with that resume.
The Panthers could certainly come out a bit flat here after basically having their shot at a College Football Playoff berth and ACC Championship end with that loss to SMU.
I'm not sure how excited they'll be for a home game against Virginia after playing SMU with Clemson on deck.
They also saw one of their better defenders in safety Donovan McMillon go down with an injury, and I think there's a substantial drop-off to his backup.
Meanwhile, this is also a spot to buy low on the Cavaliers following three straight losses during a brutal part of their schedule. More importantly, they'll be coming off of a bye, which should enable them to get much healthier.
In their last game, they got blown out by North Carolina, but I'm not sure many realize how banged up UVA was in that game, especially along the offensive line, where they were down to their third-string center.
The issues up front (and a horrid tackling day) basically ruined any chance of operating a competent offense against the Heels. However, the Hoos should have everybody back this week. We'll see if that's the case with a couple of key defenders as well.
From a matchup perspective, teams have to hit explosive plays through the air against a Pitt defense that ranks 95th in EPA per Pass. Virginia is certainly capable of doing just that with the ultimate gunslinger Anthony Colandrea under center.
Colandrea could certainly put the ball in harm's way here, but that has to be a major concern for Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein as well moving forward. On the season, he has an impressive 17:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio but an alarming 10:20 Big-Time Throw to Turnover-Worthy Play rate, per PFF.
The turnovers are coming for a Pitt team I think the market is still overvaluing after its hot start to the 2024 campaign.
Virginia vs Pitt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia and Pitt match up statistically:
Virginia Offense vs. Pitt Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 5 | |
| Pass Success | 96 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 58 | |
Pitt Offense vs. Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 44 | 85 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 108 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 114 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 85 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 100 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 89 | 28 |
| PFF Coverage | 81 | 44 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 47 | 6 |
| Middle 8 | 92 | 97 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.4 (31) | 22.2 (4) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (98) | 44% (123) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Virginia vs Pitt Prediction
I typically prefer to fade teams coming off a loss in a top-20 matchup, not leaning into the "angry" narrative.
For what it's worth, teams in that situation have historically covered 43% of the time and a touch less as a favorite of more than a touchdown.
This is also a good time to buy Virginia after losing three straight — including two against ranked opponents — and getting much healthier on the field.
For what it's worth, Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi is just 6-15 ATS (28.6%) as a favorite of six or more points in ACC play, failing to cover by an average of nearly six points per game.
I make Pitt a favorite of under six points in this game, so I'll take the Hoos catching more than a touchdown in this conference clash.
Pick: Virginia +7.5
Virginia vs Pitt Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Virginia makes the trip to Pittsburgh on Saturday to face Pitt at 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Pitt vs Virginia Betting Trends
- 96% of bets and 5% of the money on the moneyline are on Pitt to win outright
- 67% of bets and 78% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Pitt vs Virginia Weather
