The Virginia Tech Hokies will head east to Norfolk to take on an in-state foe in the Old Dominion Monarchs. This game is set to take place at 6 p.m. ET at S.B. Ballard Stadium and will air on ESPN+.
The Hokies are 15-point road favorites in a game with an over/under of 48 points. Let’s take a look at my Virginia Tech vs. Old Dominion prediction and pick.
Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion Prediction
- Pick: Under 48
My Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion best bet is on the under with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Old Dominion Monarchs Odds
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 / -110 | -800 |
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 / -110 | +550 |
- Point Spread: Virginia Tech -16.5 (-108) · Old Dominion +16.5 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 47.5
- Moneyline: Virginia Tech -800 · Old Dominion +550
Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion Preview
Virginia Tech Hokies Betting Preview: Defense Needs to Be Better
The Hokies had a lot of hype coming into this season, but with a road loss to Vanderbilt in Week 1, the wind was quickly taken out of their sails.
Virginia Tech returned 11 starters on offense from a unit that ranked 62nd in SP+ last season, including electric quarterback Kyron Drones. This team struggled to pass last season (102nd in Passing Success Rate), but it did rank 43rd in Rushing Success Rate.
The VT offense looked strong against Vanderbilt, putting up a 71st-percentile Offensive Success Rate and an 83rd-percentile EPA per play before falling in overtime. Last weekend, the Hokies put up a 40% Success Rate (46th percentile) at home against Marshall in a 31-14 victory.
Virginia Tech’s defense was expected to be stout this season. It returned 10 starters on that side of the ball and ranked 42nd in SP+ last season. However, Vanderbilt was able to carve the Hokies up as the Commodores had an 89th-percentile Offensive Success Rate and an 83rd-percentile EPA per play.
Marshall didn't have the same success, ranking in the ninth percentile in Offensive Success Rate and 13th percentile in EPA per play.
However, Marshall has been testing out new quarterbacks, and so far, Stone Earle hasn't played well whatsoever, so I don’t think this is exclusive to VT. The Thundering Herd did put up a 65th-percentile EPA per rush, which could be something to monitor.
Old Dominion Monarchs Betting Preview: Time for Wilson to Step Up
Old Dominion had the No. 84 offense by SP+ last season. To start 2024, it's played two formidable opponents in South Carolina and East Carolina, but at the moment, it's 115th in offensive EPA per play and 93rd in Offensive Success Rate.
The passing offense has been particularly bad as the Monarchs are 122nd in EPA per pass and 112th in Success Rate.
The running game is 62nd in Success Rate and 93rd in EPA per rush through these two contests.
Quarterback Grant Wilson will need to be better for ODU to have a chance this weekend. Virginia Tech’s passing defense was great last season, and while it showed signs of weakness against Vanderbilt, Wilson’s play to this point in the year doesn't inspire confidence.
Wilson has just 314 yards on 70 passing attempts with two touchdowns and three interceptions, while taking nine sacks and averaging -0.24 EPA per drop back.
Last season, Old Dominion struggled on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 97th in Success Rate. However, most of its issues came against the pass, where Virginia Tech isn’t as big of a threat.
The Monarchs ranked 56th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 11th in rushing PPA allowed and led the entire FBS in rushing explosiveness allowed last season.
This has flipped through their first two games of the season as the Monarchs rank 31st in passing EPA per play allowed and 71st in EPA per rush allowed.
However, this has been skewed by some big plays, particularly turnovers. In terms of Success Rate, their passing defense ranks 88th while their rushing defense is tied for 45th, which is more in line with what I would expect from this unit based on its profile.
ODU held East Carolina to 3.6 yards per carry and even held South Carolina to 3.1 yards per carry in a game where it was entirely outmatched in terms of size.
Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion Prediction
I’d love to fire off some hot takes and say that Old Dominion may be able to win this game outright as home underdogs, but I don’t trust this offense enough to take that position.
Old Dominion’s defense isn’t spectacular, but it's better against the run than the pass, which is Virginia Tech’s bread and butter.
If the Monarchs can slow down the Hokies’ rushing attack, this may make things a bit more difficult on Drones in what should be a tough road environment.
Virginia Tech’s defense had some struggles in Week 1, but I don’t believe it'll have many issues at all against this Old Dominion offense.
If the Monarchs want a chance to win this game then their offense will need to come through, but I’m not counting on this being the case.
At 48 points, I'll take the under between these two in-state opponents in what should be a defensive-heavy matchup.
Pick: Under 48 (Play to 46.5)
How to Watch Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Kornblau Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion Betting Trends
- 55% of the bets and 42% of the money is on Old Dominion to cover the spread against Virginia Tech.
- 76% of the bets and 79% of the money is on the over.
- 98% of the bets and 88% of the money is on Hokies moneyline.
