After an unbelievable finish last Friday night in Miami, the Virginia Tech Hokies (2-3, 0-1 ACC) are looking to forget about that improbable end-of-game Hail Mary touchdown that the officials overturned to lose, 38-34. The Hokies were 17.5-point underdogs at Miami last week and went toe-to-toe with the Hurricanes.
The officials got the call correct, but what a demoralizing loss for the Hokies.
After last week's events, Virginia Tech has a quick turnaround and will hit the road to play the Stanford Cardinal (2-2, 1-1). The Cardinal are an 8.5-point underdog after beating Syracuse, 26-24, for their first ACC victory a couple of weeks ago.
Oddsmaker have also set the total at 50.
Let’s break down the matchup below to uncover the best betting angle for Saturday afternoon’s ACC clash with my Virginia Tech vs Stanford predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
Virginia Tech vs Stanford Odds, Lines, Pick
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +240 |
- Virginia Tech vs Stanford spread: Virginia Tech -7.5
- Virginia Tech vs Stanford total: 50 points
- Virginia Tech vs Stanford moneyline: Virginia Tech -300
- Virginia Tech vs. Stanford pick: Stanford +8.5
Virginia Tech vs Stanford Preview
Virginia Tech Football
The Hokies have to be devastated after last week's game in Miami. There was a moment when they had pulled off an incredible upset in one of the most insane endings to a regular season game in recent memory.
Instead, the officials overturned the call, which they got correct and now have to somehow get up for a matchup against Stanford. Given the circumstances, this is not only a problematic spot, but it also adds to the cross-country travel impact.
The offense looked strong last week, but their defense helped inflate some of those box score stats. They enter the matchup against Stanford who's 69th in rushing success rate and 38th in line yards.
QB Kyron Drones has had mixed results thus far in 2024, throwing for six touchdowns and four interceptions. This inconsistency is one of the main reasons Virginia Tech is 104th in passing success rate.
It's a decent matchup for Drones, as Stanford struggles against the pass. He has the potential to put up a solid effort through his arm. Given that Stanford's defense is vital in the trench, his performance on Saturday becomes even more critical.
Given that the Hokies rely on the ground game 59% of the time, they might struggle to move the ball. Adjustments could easily be made, but it'll be interesting to see what type of game OC Tyler Bowen calls.
It's important to note that the Hokies' defensive performance was an outlier compared to previous weeks. But what stood out to me is that they continued to be successful in the Havoc department and caused Miami to stall on several drives despite allowing over 600 yards on offense.
Stanford's offense is nothing special, so it is a good matchup defensively. They'll need to hold up in the red zone to cover the number, as Stanford has solid underlying metrics in the finishing and quality drives department.
Stanford Football
Clemson obliterated Stanford last week, 40-14, but the box score was misleading. The Cardinal were only outgained by 30 yards, as the three turnovers cost them.
QB Ashton Daniels was a disaster, finishing the game 9/19 for 68 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. He did chip in 90 yards on the ground, but it was still a poor performance.
The ground attack was impactful for the offense last week, which is encouraging heading into the matchup against the Hokies. They rank outside the bottom 90 in Havoc, line yards and passing success rate.
The metrics could be more precise, so there is an opportunity to build upon last week with a decent matchup. The Hokies run a base, 4-3 type defense, which relies heavily on a solid pass rush.
Running the football can slow down those pass rushers, so I expect Daniels to use his legs as much as possible. Given that he's been a turnover machine, there is going to be an incentive to limit the number of dropbacks he has overall.
Defensively, I love what they've done in the trench. They enter the matchup only allowing 2.2 line yards per rush, which is impressive.
They are also second in the nation in defensive stuff rate, currently at 34%. The run defense has done an excellent job thus far despite allowing five YPC last week.
Their defensive front has an issue: They still need to generate sacks. Bobby April III's 4-2-5 defense should have plenty of opportunities to generate pressure against a Hokies offense that has allowed a lot of Havoc from opposing offenses.
The secondary has questions, but CB Collin Wright is arguably the best player on this experienced defense, only allowing 6.4 yards per catch. They're 37th in PFF tackling, and the special teams have been excellent thus far.
It's a terrific spot for Stanford at home, as the Hokies are essentially in a free-fall after brutal losses back-to-back weeks.
Stanford vs Virginia Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Stanford and Virginia Tech match up statistically:
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Stanford Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 59 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 95 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 75 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 79 |  |
Stanford Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 125 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 73 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 37 |
| PFF Coverage | 96 | 91 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 43 | 19 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 32 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.4 (54) | 28.2 (82) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (49) | 53% (82) |
Virginia Tech vs Stanford Prediction
I love Stanford here, as it's one of my favorite plays on the entire board. The Hokies were supposed to be an ACC threat before the season, but now they find themselves 2-3.
There are only so many other ways to lose a more demoralizing game than last week, and it's a tough travel spot. They have a massive game against Boston College next Thursday, which means they'll be on another short week after a long cross-country trip.
They may be unable to run the ball that effectively, and these pass rushers are due to break out for Stanford.
Daniels needs to limit the turnovers, but his legs should play a significant factor here.
Stanford is among the best situational spots of the week, so I will take advantage of that and grab the points. I realize the Cardinal have Notre Dame next week, but the situation is far more impactful for the Hokies.
Pick: Stanford +8.5 (Play to +7)
How to Watch Virginia Tech vs Stanford Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Virginia Tech vs Stanford Betting Trends
- 50% of the tickets and 67% of the money is targeted towards the Cardinal covering the spread.
- 55% of the bets and 96% of the money is aimed for the Over.
Virginia Tech vs Stanford Weather
