When building offseason hype and momentum in college football, it's not how you start but how you finish — especially when you bring back heaps of returning production.
Well, Virginia Tech certainly checks all of those boxes.
The Hokies come into the 2024 season with plenty of hype as a legitimate sleeper in the ACC, primarily as a result of how they finished in 2023 and what they are bringing back on both sides of the ball in year three under head coach Brent Pry, who will benefit from a unit that ranks tops nationally in returning production.
After starting just 1-4 with a severely neutered offense, the Hokies finished the season 6-3, capped off by a dominant bowl victory over Tulane. It all changed when they changed quarterbacks, turning to Kyron Drones, who unlocked an explosive rushing attack over the year's second half.
Over those final games, Virginia Tech went with a very heavy rush-first offense, led by running back Bhayshul Tuten and the dual-threat Drones. Virginia Tech had a 60% rush rate during that stretch and averaged 420 yards per game. Before Drones took over, they averaged only 60 yards per game on the ground. Following the quarterback change, that number skyrocketed to 213.
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Prediction
- Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Pick: Vanderbilt +14 or Better
My Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
The opposite is true for Vanderbilt, which hasn't enjoyed preseason hype in ages.
The Dores are unlikely to sniff a winning record for the first time in over a decade under head coach Clark Lea, whose seat may warm a bit if the faithful don't see any improvement.
Lea, who enters his fourth season at the helm, owns an overall 9-27 record. But, in fairness, this is one of the most challenging jobs in college football. Vandy doesn't have the talent or resources to compete in the SEC.
After a 2-10 campaign last season, Lea hit the reset button with his staff, firing both coordinators and the strength coach.
Subsequently, he hired Jerry Kill and Tim Beck from New Mexico State to run the new offense, while he focused primarily on the defense (also serving as the DC), where he specializes. Kill and Beck brought in a couple of contributors from Las Cruces — quarterback Diego Pavia and tight end Eli Stowers.
Can these staff changes lead to improvement without much improvement in the talent department?
That remains to be seen, but we will undoubtedly get a better idea of what the 2024 Commodores may look like in their home opener against a Hokies squad back on the rise in Blacksburg.
Regardless of how the Vandy season plays out, the Hokies must focus on a potentially tricky road opener and not on all the praise they received during the summer.
Let's dive into my Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech prediction for Saturday, Aug. 31.
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- Point Spread: Vanderbilt +13.5 · Virginia Tech -13.5
- Total: Over/Under 48.5
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +400 · Virginia Tech -550
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Preview
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: The Las Cruces-to-Nashville Pipeline
As has been the case for quite some time, Vanderbilt was a lousy football team in 2023.
Look no further than its results against other Power 5 opponents. It lost by double digits to all nine by an average of over three touchdowns per contest.
It wasn't pretty, which led to all of the staff changes.
The Commodores will run a gimmicky offense, which I think is the right approach when you are at a significant talent disadvantage. This is similar to what the service academies do with the difficult-to-prepare-for triple option, which opponents don't see often.
You can expect a slow-paced, run-heavy attack with plenty of two-tight end looks, most likely led by former NMSU quarterback Diego Pavia (Utah transfer dual-threat Nate Johnson is also in the mix), who came to Nashville along with his former tight end Eli Stowers.
The offensive line, which will shift the right and left sides throughout the game, is still a big question mark despite some returning experience and the addition of Steven Losoya (who will take over at center) from Mississippi State.
The Commodores also must replace their top three receivers, who all landed on Power 4 rosters.
Defensively, I think the front is an improved group after adding bulk in the offseason and a few transfers from MTSU and Purdue.
Safeties CJ Taylor and De'Rickey Wright are rock solid, but one linebacker spot and the entire corner situation are extremely dicey. Pass defense has been and should continue to be an incredibly sore area for the Dores unless a few make a monumental leap and/or a pair of transfers from TCU and Wyoming can exceed my expectations.
Virginia Tech Hokies Betting Preview: An ACC Sleeper
As mentioned, Virginia Tech returns more to its roster than any team in the country. That includes its quarterback, running back, all five offensive linemen and the top three wide receivers. The Hokies also benefit from the return of wide receiver Ali Jennings from injury.
The offensive line did struggle at times, so we will see if more experience translates to increased production.
Virginia Tech runs a very aggressive, blitz-heavy defense, which it can do with an elite cornerback duo of Mansoor Delane and Dorian Strong alongside a rock-solid free safety in Jalen Stroman.
Elsewhere, all the defensive ends from last year return, led by stud Antwaun Powell-Ryland. The interior did lose some key cogs, but the Hokies helped plug some of those departures via the transfer portal by adding Kelvin Gilliam from Oklahoma and Aeneas Peebles from Duke.
The biggest question mark on this unit is at linebacker.
Possessing so much returning production is a huge advantage in today's college football landscape, especially with how the Hokies finished the season after a quarterback change. However, they may come into the 2024 campaign a bit overhyped.
Drones still needs to improve as a downfield passer. His excellent end to the 2023 season included wins against Wake Forest (in Michael Kern's first start), Pittsburgh (in Phil Jurkovec's last), Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia and a dead Tulane team in the bowl game.
Over that same stretch, they lost to the three best teams they faced (Florida State, Louisville, NC State) by a combined score of 108-48.
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Prediction, Pick
This total has continued to drop in a move I agree with in a game between two run-heavy teams (Vandy should also be even slower this season) with potential impactful weather.
However, despite the total falling, the road favorite has continued to climb, nearing two touchdowns as I write this.
I prefer the Vanderbilt side and am just waiting for it to hit 14, which I think we'll get at some point — a super key number in a game that may have minimal possessions.
Not only do I think Virginia Tech could potentially be a bit overvalued coming into the season due to its close to last season and returning production, but the unknown should also favor the Commodores, who will have a brand new, gimmicky offense that could catch the Hokies off guard by taking advantage of their aggressiveness.
I also think the way to attack Virginia Tech is on the ground. So, while the receivers are way down as a group filled with depth pieces from last season, I don't expect Vanderbilt to pass much, which neutralizes that strength.
You want to attack Vanderbilt's cornerbacks, but Drones still has issues in the aerial department, and there could be some impactful weather in the area during the game.
Virginia Tech may dominate in the trenches, and it all falls apart for Vandy. Still, I like the home pup catching two touchdowns here.
Pick: Vanderbilt +14 or Better
How to Watch Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Betting Trends
- The public is backing Vanderbilt, as 57% of the bets and 86% of the handle are on the Commodores.
- Vanderbilt was dreadful as a betting team in 2023, going 2-10 straight up, 2-10 ATS, 1-5 ATS at home and 2-7 ATS as an underdog.
- Virginia Tech went 7-6 straight up and 8-5 ATS last season, including 6-2 ATS as a favorite.
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech Weather
