Wake Forest vs Duke Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
Wake Forest and Duke will meet on Saturday afternoon with each looking to bolster their bowl projections.
Both the Blue Devils and Demon Deacons sit at 7-4 on the season.
Wake Forest is coming off yet another impressive offensive performance, defeating Syracuse 45-35. Quarterback Sam Hartman put together one of his best performances of the season, throwing for 331 yards and four touchdowns.
Duke, meanwhile, is coming off a close loss to Pittsburgh, 26-28. QB Riley Leonard put up 290 yards and three touchdowns without throwing an interception.
Unlike Hartman, Leonard had a less efficient game and completed only 24 of his 45 total passing attempts.
This is a matchup of two very successful offenses as Wake Forest and Duke have averaged 37.4 and 33.0 points per game this season.
Will this be another offensive showcase? Or does one defense have the intangibles to slow down the opposition?
Let's dive in.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Although Wake Forest will return to a bowl, this season has been a roller coaster. Wake Forest is 3-4 in the ACC Atlantic, tied with Syracuse for the second-to-last position above only Boston College.
The story for Wake Forest has been its reliance on Hartman to overcome defensive shortcomings. Wake Forest's passing attack, led by Hartman, ranks 12th nationally in Success Rate at 47.7%.
Sam Hartman balled out in his final home game for the Deacs! @WakeFB | #ACCFootballpic.twitter.com/c3Nh61Iuix
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) November 20, 2022
On the other side of the ball, Wake Forest ranks 88th in Overall Defensive Success Rate, allowing teams to run a successful play at a 40.4% clip.
This matchup with Duke will be yet another advantageous one for Hartman as the Blue Devils rank 92nd in Passing Success Rate defensively at 42.5%.
Teams have found success against Wake Forest by making it one-dimensional through the air. In all four of Wake Forest's losses this season, the Demon Deacons have failed to produce a 100-yard rusher.
Although Hartman has been sensational, teams have proven the Demon Deacons' one-dimensional passing attack can be overcome.
Wake Forest has produced a .73 rushing explosiveness on offense, which has resulted in an average of just .9 second-level line yards per rush.
Those numbers have put Wake Forest in an especially high number of passing downs, which gives opponents opportunities to get off the field.
Wake Forest ranks 96th in third- and fourth-down Success Rate, at 45.51%.
Wake Forest's rushing attack will have quite a challenge on Saturday against a Duke front line that has been great against the rush all year. The Blue Devils rank 12th nationally in EPA/Rush and 28th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
Additionally, the Blue Devils will have a defensive advantage in Rushing Success, Line Yards and Havoc on the defensive side of the ball.
For Wake Forest to come out victorious, Hartman will have to have yet another world-beating performance.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke had a three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday as it fell to Pittsburgh, 28-26.
This Blue Devils season has been marked by the stellar play of sophomore quarterback Leonard. Leonard ranks fifth in the ACC in passing yards, having racked up 2,403 yards through the air.
Leonard has to like the matchup he has against a Wake Forest secondary that ranks 102nd in EPA/Pass and 99th in Passing Success Rate at 43.2%.
Duke will be most effective on Saturday with its ability to pair Leonard's play with a balanced rushing attack.
Unlike Wake Forest, Duke has found success on the ground this season, ranking rank 10th in EPA/Rush and 28th in Rushing Success Rate.
The ability to stay ahead of the chains via their ground attack will open up the field for Leonard to build upon the passing attack he has developed this season.
In a game that features two potent offenses, getting the most out of each possession will be crucial for both teams. This is a category that favors the Blue Devils, who rank 25th nationally in Net Points/Drive and are going against a defense that ranks 98th in the same category.
Duke has found ways to force its opponents off the field at a much higher rate, ranking 41st in Net Points/Drive. This, combined with a significant advantage on the ground, is a recipe for a successful afternoon for the Blue Devils.
Wake Forest vs Duke Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wake Forest and Duke match up statistically:
Wake Forest Offense vs. Duke Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 80 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 92 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 48 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 68 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Duke Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 66 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 85 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 42 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 53 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 38 | 93 |
| PFF Coverage | 69 | 87 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 44 | 67 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.0 (12) | 29.0 (113) |
| Rush Rate | 52.6% (73) | 55.6% (55) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Wake Forest vs Duke Betting Pick
Duke is a 3.5-point underdog at home against Wake Forest.
Additionally, there has been sharp action in favor of the under in this contest. Although this total sits at 66.5, the sharp action on the under only favors the underdog in this spot.
Due to a distinct advantage in the run game and efficiency on defense, I believe there's value on the home underdog in this matchup.
Look for Duke to make Wake Forest predictable through the air and to create long-yardage third-down situations that result in stops.
Duke has generated a 9% Havoc Rate from its defensive backs this season, which could go a long way toward creating turnovers. That will be crucial in this matchup of high-powered offenses.
Pick: Duke +3.5 (Play to +1) |
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