Washington vs Washington State Odds
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -128 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +106 |
The last #Pac12AfterDark matchup of the season pits the Washington Huskies against the Washington State Cougars in the Apple Cup.
Last week, Washington improved to 9-2 by notching a 54-7 victory over Colorado. It was the Huskies' fifth straight win. This week, Washington will go for its 10th win for the first time since 2018, when it last won the Pac-12.
However, its in-state rival will have something to say about that.
Washington State went on the road and knocked off Arizona, 31-20, covering as four-point favorites in the process. Washington State began the year 4-1 but lost three straight and now sits at 7-4. This week, the only thing that matters is keeping the Apple Cup in Pullman.
Washington and Washington State have been playing since 1900, and the Huskies have dominated the series. Washington leads the all-time series, 74-33-6, and has gone 41-16 since the teams began playing for the Apple Cup.
However, the Cougars ended Washington's seven-game win streak in the series last year with a convincing 40-13 victory.
Washington enters as a short favorite in this one, but can it cover?
Washington Huskies
Last week, Washington essentially picked the score against Colorado and finished with 54 points.
Despite the scoring outburst, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a season-low 229 passing yards. However, he was pulled in the third quarter. Penix has thrown for over 300 yards in nine of his 11 games this season. On the year, he has thrown for 3,869 yards, 26 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 66.7% of his passes.
Penix leads the nation's top offense in passing yards per game and third-down percentage. The Huskies are second in Passing Success Rate and sacks allowed, fifth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense at 39.8 points per game.
The offensive line makes this unit work, as Washington ranks eighth in pass-blocking grade and first in Havoc Allowed.
Penix's top target is Rome Odunze, who had a quiet game last week with two catches for 17 yards. However, he has 65 catches for 931 yards and six touchdowns on the season and leads the Pac-12 in receiving yards per game.
Jalen McMillan also has 65 receptions for 890 yards and six touchdowns after racking up 98 yards and a score last week. Ja'Lynn Polk rounds out the trio with 34 catches, 567 yards and five touchdowns.
Wayne Taulapapa and Cam Davis add balance to the run game. Taulapapa averages 5.8 yards per carry and has run for 653 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Davis has 467 yards and 13 touchdowns on 4.6 yards per carry. They each scored two touchdowns last week. Washington ranks 15th in Rushing Success Rate.
Washington's defense had a favorable matchup last week against Colorado, but overall the numbers haven't been pretty.
Washington ranks 84th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 113th in pass coverage grade. The Huskies are also 109th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 98th in Line Yards and 119th in Havoc.
Washington can get after the passer, as it's 27th in pass rush grade and 30th with 29 sacks. Edge rushers Bralen Trice and Jeremiah Martin have combined for 13.5 sacks. Washington will have an edge in this area against Washington State as Cameron Ward has been sacked 34 times.
Washington State Cougars
Washington is not the only team in the state that likes to throw the ball around. The Huskies own the seventh-highest pass play rate in the country, but Washington State sits eighth.
Ward is the signal-caller, and he has thrown 21 touchdowns against just eight interceptions with 2,772 yards. He has also completed 64.2% of his passes.
The Cougars don't run very often, but are 47th in Rushing Success Rate. Nakia Watson leads the backfield with 663 yards on 5.8 yards per carry. He has run for seven touchdowns and has scored in each of the past three games. He has also added 22 receptions for 249 yards and three touchdowns out of the backfield.
Ward does a nice job of spreading the ball around, as six WSU receivers have 20 receptions and five have over 200 yards.
De'Zhaun Stribling leads the group with 44 receptions for 544 yards and five touchdowns. Robert Ferrel has hauled in 42 passes for 446 yards and three scores, while Donovan Ollie has 41 catches for 452 yards with three touchdowns.
For Washington State, putting pressure on Penix will be essential to pulling out the win. Washington State ranks 29th in Havoc and is tied with Washington for 30th in sacks. Defensive end Brennan Jackson leads the team with five sacks.
However, Washington has allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the country.
The Cougars are also 81st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, so Washington should find success when it leans on the running game.
Washington has a dangerous passing attack, but this Washington State secondary is no slouch either.
Washington State sits 29th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 31st in pass coverage grade. Defensive back Sam Lockett III has three passes defended and three interceptions, while defensive back Chau Smith-Wade has six passes defended and two interceptions.
Washington vs Washington State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington and Washington State match up statistically:
Washington Offense vs. Washington State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 37 |  |
| Pass Success | 2 | 29 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 8 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 22 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Washington State Offense vs. Washington Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 98 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 84 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 79 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 114 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 70 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 90 | 13 |
| PFF Coverage | 113 | 31 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 62 | 51 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.1 (40) | 25.0 (39) |
| Rush Rate | 42.2% (125) | 42.2% (124) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Washington vs Washington State Betting Pick
This is a game where the ball will be in the air a ton and there is plenty of potential for a shootout. However, I expect Washington to come out on top in this battle.
Washington ranks third in Finishing Drives, while Washington State comes in at 64th. UW is going to convert its scoring opportunities at a higher rate. Even just one more touchdown instead of a field goal could be the difference in a 35-31 kind of game.
Washington is also going to have more success pressuring the opposition's quarterback. That could lead to pivotal third stops to get Washington off the field and put the ball back in Penix's hands.
Washington State is 0-4 against teams currently ranked in the CFP Top 25. Three of those losses were by double digits and all four were by at least four points.
Washington is 2-2 on the road this season, but its offense has traveled as it is averaging 33.8 PPG on the road. Washington has covered in six of the past seven meetings, and I'll be backing the Huskies as a short road favorite this week.
Pick: Washington -1.5 (Play to -3) |
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