Washington State (8-1) travels to take on New Mexico (4-6, 3-3 MWC) in nonconference action on Saturday, Nov. 16. This game kicks off at 9:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on FS1.
The Cougars are slated as 10.5-point favorites in the contest as the line has been steadily coming down all week, with the Lobos taking sharp money early. The total is set at 71.5.
Wazzu still feels as though it has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff picture, while New Mexico is seeking to make one final push toward securing bowl game eligibility.
Both of these teams have significantly outperformed pre-season expectations and this should be a great late-night battle on Saturday night.
Let's dive into my Washington State vs. New Mexico predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Washington State vs New Mexico Prediction
- Washington State vs. New Mexico Pick: Over 71.5
My Washington State-New Mexico best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Washington State vs New Mexico Odds
| Washington St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 71.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 71.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
- Washington State vs New Mexico Point Spread: Washington State -10.5 (-110) · New Mexico +10.5 (-110)
- Washington State vs New Mexico Total: Over/Under 71.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Washington State vs New Mexico Moneyline: Washington State +-400 · New Mexico +310
Washington State vs New Mexico Preview
Washington State Cougars Betting Preview: How Will Cougars Fare in Elevation?
Washington State enters this one off a 49-28 home win over Utah State last week.
Wazzu was in firm control of this one early and got the ground game going, which wore down the Utah State defensive line in the second half.
The Cougs ran for 303 yards and five rushing touchdowns. Quarterback John Mateer efficiently completed 75% of his passes with four touchdowns.
It was concerning to see Washington State get dominated in the late stages of this one as Utah State executed three long touchdown drives on its last three drives of the game.
The Coogs had no answer late and this could be a factor this week playing at elevation, something Washington State was not used to doing a lot of in the Pac 12.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Lacking Defensive Prowess
New Mexico has been a major surprise this season, widely exceeding everyone’s pre-season expectations of this Lobos program.
Bronco Mendenhall has turned things around quickly and has the offense piling up the yards and points on a weekly basis. The concern here has been the defense, which has struggled all season in allowing yards and points.
While this is a fun brand of football to watch, the defense has directly cost UNM a couple of wins already by not being able to hold late double-digit fourth-quarter leads against Montana State and Wyoming.
Whatever happens in this game, it is sure to get wild.
Washington State vs New Mexico Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and New Mexico match up statistically:
Washington State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 130 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 102 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 128 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 133 | |
New Mexico Offense vs. Washington State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 49 |  |
| Havoc | 11 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 69 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 94 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 134 | 110 |
| PFF Coverage | 35 | 117 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 120 | 130 |
| Middle 8 | 38 | 79 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (37) | 24.9 (25) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (58) | 52% (83) |
Washington State vs New Mexico Pick & Prediction
There is no reason to go contrarian here in this one. I'm taking the over at 71.5 and playing it to 74.
Offensively, Washington State has been extremely efficient on offense while averaging 39.3 points and 452 yards of offense per game.
The Cougars are ranked No. 1 nationally in Offensive Explosiveness and 25th. Mateer has a 22:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and adds a substantial running element.
New Mexico defensively ranks 134th nationally in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate allowed and 133rd in Standard Down Success Rate Allowed. Washington State just ran for 300 yards in its last game and should have success here as well.
The Lobos' defense has struggled in securing stops in the red zone and ranks just 133rd nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives. UNM has surrendered 31 red zone touchdowns and 49 touchdowns overall this season.
UNM is allowing 50% of third downs faced to be converted and WSU has been efficient in converting 45% of its third down attempts. It is difficult to see New Mexico generating stops, which will leave the offense in positions where it has to score to keep the Lobos in the game.
New Mexico offensively has been electric all season behind the dazzling play of quarterback Devon Dampier. The Lobos signal-caller has thrown for 2,418 yards and is the team’s leading rusher with 858 yards and 13 rushing scores.
The Lobos have put up 430 yards or more against every FBS opponent this season and should be able to move it here against the Cougars.
Washington State has been susceptible to giving up big plays defensively and ranks just 104th in Defensive Explosiveness surrendered. New Mexico has done well to limit Havoc against them this year and Washington State has only registered 15 sacks and 50 tackles for loss on the season.
Ranking just 109th in Defensive Havoc achieved, it is not likely that Washington State will create enough negative plays needed to keep New Mexico behind the chains.
New Mexico plays hard for 60 minutes week in and week out.
Early in the season, in games where it was down big, the offense never quit pursuing scores and the first-team unit stayed on the field until the last play. Washington State allowed three long 70+ yard touchdown drives in the last 20 minutes against Utah State.
While Washington State won that game and covered the spread, it could not stop Utah State in the late stages. Playing at elevation will expedite fatigue, specifically for Wazzu, who is not accustomed to it.
Both of these teams are going to score a ton of points here. UNM's defense has been unreliable all season, and Washington State has just surrendered a ton of yards and points in back-to-back weeks against Utah State without its best offensive weapon and San Diego State, who has struggled offensively all season.
This will be a shootout.
Pick: Over 71.5 (Play to 74)
Washington State vs New Mexico Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Washington State vs New Mexico Betting Trends
Washington State vs New Mexico Weather
