The second of five straight days of college football continues on Wednesday, Oct. 16, with two more Conference USA clashes.
First, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be +2.5 road underdogs to the Sam Houston Bearkats in a potential CUSA Championship preview — and we just happen to have a pick on the spread.
Then, to close out the night, the Florida International Panthers head to El Paso to take on the UTEP Miners in a game FIU enters as a -7 favorite.
Our college football writers came through with Wednesday college football predictions for both games, so let's strap in — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Thursday night college football betting coverage.
Wednesday College Football Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Prediction
A potential Conference USA Championship preview is on hand Wednesday night, as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-2, 2-0 CUSA) travel to play Sam Houston (5-1, 2-0). The game is set to kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Bearkats and Hilltoppers meet tied for 2nd in the conference standings.
The teams are both winless against Power 4 programs, with Sam Houston dropping its matchup against UCF, while Western Kentucky lost to both Alabama and Boston College.
The visiting Hilltoppers are on short rest, having just defeated UTEP less than 1 week ago. Will that help the Bearkats in a game where they've moved from an underdog to a slight favorite?
Sam Houston now sits as a -2.5 favorite with the over/under at 56.
Let's take a look at my Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 16.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky hopped right back into the win column six days ago against UTEP, just a game removed from its heartbreaking loss at Boston College. The Hilltoppers were outscored, 14-0, in the fourth quarter of that one-point loss to the Eagles.
The losing effort two weeks ago against Boston College shows the best of what the Hilltoppers can be. Their passing attack led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp ranks tops in Conference USA with 278.8 yards passing per game and 13 total passing touchdowns.
Veltkamp has been one of the most accurate passers in the league, completing nearly 70% of his passes, but he’s made some critical errors in the turnover department. Only one other Conference USA quarterback has more than Veltkamp’s five interceptions, and his two second-half turnovers at Boston College directly led to 14 points for the Eagles.
While the Hilltopper offensive line has done a decent job in pass protection, that blocking hasn’t transferred to the ground game, where they rank 86th and 78th in Rush Success and Line Yards, respectively.
Western Kentucky's defense has been a bit of a mixed bag as well. The Hilltoppers held Boston College to a season-low 279 total yards of offense, but they were also gouged for 514 yards by a Middle Tennessee team that will finish near the bottom of the conference standings.
The Hilltoppers boast one of the worst secondaries in the country, ranking 126th in Pass Success Allowed. The Western Kentucky defense allows 8.5 yards per attempt, which sits 121st in the FBS.
Sam Houston Bearkats
To say Year 2 of FBS play for Sam Houston has gone much better than Year 1 would be quite an understatement.
The Bearkats were one of the last teams to pick up their first win of the season in 2023, dropping t0 0-8 before finally beating Kennesaw State.
Fast forward to 2024, and the Bearkats are in the thick of a Conference USA title race with just a lone loss on the season.
One of the biggest reasons for Sam Houston’s newfound success this year has been the development of its strong running game. The Bearkats are 11th nationally with 228.8 yards rushing per game.
The ground success has been a collaborative effort, with running backs Jay Ducker and DJ McKinney contributing 348 yards each, along with quarterback Hunter Watson’s team-leading 370 rushing yards.
Watson completes fewer than 60% of his passes, but his dual-threat skill set is responsible for 11 touchdowns through the air and on the ground.
While Sam Houston has one of the higher-scoring offenses in Conference USA, every point is needed with some of its shortcomings on defense. The Bearkats struggle the most in stopping the run, where they rank 118th and 132nd in Rush Success and Line Yards, respectively.
If there is an area of “strength,” it's Sam Houston’s pass defense, which will be important against a Western Kentucky team that prefers to move down the field through the air.
The Bearkats are second in Conference USA in both interceptions (7) and passes defended (28).
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Pick
I was a little surprised when this game opened with Sam Houston as a small home 'dog before moving to where it is now.
Western Kentucky will struggle to contain Watson and an offense that has scored at least 21 points against every Group of Five team it has played.
The Bearkats have one of the best pass rushes in Conference USA, and with the Hilltoppers looking to win this game with Veltkamp’s arm, he’s going to face too much pressure to consistently find success.
Hop on the Bearkat bandwagon now while Sam Houston has a real shot of going from one of the worst to first in the conference standings.
Pick: Sam Houston -2.5 (Play to -3)
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FIU vs. UTEP Prediction
By Brett Pund
The FIU Panthers (2-4, 1-1 Conference USA) and UTEP Miners (0-6, 0-3) meet at the Sun Bowl on Wednesday night for more midweek action in the Conference USA. The game is set to kick off at 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Panthers suffered a heartbreaking loss at Liberty last week in overtime to fall to 2-4 on the season and 1-1 in C-USA.
Meanwhile, the Miners are undergoing a full rebuild season under a new head coach and are still searching for their first win through six games.
FIU enters the game as a -7 favorite with the over/under at 48.
This may not be the best matchup on paper, but I do see solid betting value on a road favorite. So, let’s preview this conference tilt and make some FIU vs. UTEP predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 16.
FIU Panthers
In his third season with the program, FIU head coach Mike MacIntyre has been known for rebuilding losing programs, and he almost had a memorable win last week.
FIU erased a 14-point deficit with 10:43 left in regulation to force overtime at Liberty. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they couldn't match the Flames’ score in the extra period.
After beating Louisiana Tech the week before, FIU would have been in the driver's seat for a conference title game appearance and a bowl trip. Regardless, it does show the potential that this team has under MacIntyre.
Linebacker Travion Barnes played a key role in that game against Liberty. He racked up a career-high 16 tackles in the loss, which has been the norm for him this season. Coming into this contest, Barnes ranks second in the FBS with 70 total tackles.
He has also led a defensive unit that has given up only a combined 17 points in the second halves against Louisiana Tech and Liberty.
With the inconsistent play on offense, Barnes and the defense will need another big performance here to pick up a win.
UTEP Miners
Head coach Scotty Walden decided in the offseason to make the jump up to the FBS level after years of success at Austin Peay. Even with the multiple starters he brought with him, it has been a difficult debut season in El Paso.
It also hasn’t helped that the Miners have faced the harder teams in Conference USA at the beginning of his tenure. UTEP had Liberty, Sam Houston and Western Kentucky to open league play to go along with a nonconference game at Nebraska to begin the season.
Wednesday night starts a stretch where the level of the opponent drops, and I expect the Miners to catch someone on their schedule.
Offensively, the team has also started to make plays. Ezell Jolly ran for a career-high 119 yards at WKU, and Kenny Odom ranks second in CUSA in yards per catch (22.9) and tied for first in touchdown receptions (four).
Walden needs time to turn this program around, but he showed during his time at Austin Peay, he can deliver results.
FIU vs. UTEP Pick
As much as I’d love to fade UTEP here, I just can’t get over how bad the spot is for FIU. The Panthers just had an overtime loss against the defending CUSA champion, and they now have to travel over two time zones from Miami to El Paso.
So, I’m electing to take another route to fade the Miners, which is to oppose their troubling offense.
With that said, my best bet is for UTEP to fall under its team total of 21.5 at FanDuel, which I would play down to 20.5.
The key matchup on both sides of the ball will be on passing plays because both teams are outside the top 70 in rush rate. This is where there's a clear advantage for the visitors.
On offense, the Miners come into this game ranked outside the top 110 in both Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives. It also doesn’t help that starting quarterback Cade McConnell left the game against WKU with an injury and is questionable for this one.
Regardless of who starts under center, FIU has been solid defending the pass. The Panthers defense ranks 21st nationally in Passing Success Allowed and 16th in PFF coverage grade.
This is also the same unit that ranks top-10 among non-Power 4 programs in Pass EPA.
UTEP has eclipsed this number in only one game this season, which came in a loss to FCS Southern Utah.
I think the struggles continue here with a backup quarterback, so I’ll back the Panthers to stay hot on defense.
Pick: UTEP Team Total Under 21.5 (Play to 20.5)
