College Football Picks for Wednesday, Nov. 13
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wednesday nights are for MACtion. After a solid Tuesday night slate, we have three college football games on deck again tonight.
Our college football writers broke down all three Mad-American Conference matchups and came through with a pick for each. So, whether you're looking to bet Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio, Kent State vs. Miami (OH) or Akron vs. Northern Illinois, we have you covered.
Check out all three of our Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for tonight's MACtion matchups — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio Pick: Expect a Close One
By John Feltman
The Ohio Bobcats (6-3, 4-1 MAC) are easily the biggest surprise in the MAC and have a chance to maintain their position to play in the MAC Championship later this season. The Bobs entered the 2024 season with a win total of 6.5, yet they have already racked up 6 victories before Thanksgiving.
Now, the Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-4, 2-3) are set to travel to Athens, Ohio, to play spoiler on Wednesday night. The Eagles have won 5 games, so they need just 1 more to reach bowl eligibility.
Oddsmakers have the Bobcats as 10.5-point home favorites with the total at 50.5.
Let's dive into my Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio predictions and college football picks for this MAC matchup on Wednesday, Nov. 12.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
When Eastern Michigan blew a late lead to Toledo on Nov. 2, it was brutal. The Eagles had the opportunity to get right back in the thick of the regular-season MAC title race, but now they're 2-3 in conference play.
It's safe to say this team has overachieved thus far in 2024. Many of its underlying metrics suggest it should have a worse record than its current 5-4 mark.
Still, this is an intriguing matchup for EMU.
Starting with the offense, quarterback Cole Snyder has performed well after transferring from Buffalo. He has compiled 11 touchdown passes and is nearing 2,000 passing yards for the season.
What's troubling about Snyder is that he takes a lot of sacks — 23 thus far, to be exact. While he has chipped in four rushing touchdowns, he has also lost four fumbles.
The Eagles' offensive line is a significant factor heading into the matchup, as it's 47th in Havoc Allowed but 97th in Line Yards. They have a tough draw against a solid Bobs defensive front that has not allowed much on the ground and has created plenty of pressure.
The offense should get a boost if it reaches the red zone, as Ohio's defense has struggled in that area. The path to an upset for the Eagles will be to attack the secondary, which is the weakest aspect of the Bobcats' defensive unit.
EMU's uptempo style could be successful if it throws the ball down the field. This team ranks 53rd in Quality Drives, so it appears there's a path for it to score.
The Eagles haven't been the best defensively, but they have an edge heading into this matchup.
Ohio runs the ball at a 61% clip, but EMU has done an excellent job limiting rush explosiveness. It's also 38th in Defensive Rush EPA.
The one issue is its secondary has been a nightmare and now draws a tough matchup against Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro.
The Eagles are exploitable on the back end, ranking 132nd in PFF Coverage grade and 111th in Pass Success Rate allowed. However, the Bobs' offensive line is also vulnerable, giving the Eagles a chance to get after the quarterback.
If Eastern Michigan can continue the trend of limiting rush explosives and force the Bobs into tough third-down situations, that will allow these pass rushers to go to work and make Navarro uncomfortable.
The Eagles have also had a bye week to prepare, and they'll benefit from the extra rest by getting some players back on the defensive side of the ball.
Ohio Bobcats
The Bobcats find themselves in the middle of the MAC race and can still earn a regular-season title. They took care of business last week against Kent State, completely dominating the Golden Flashes with their special teams and defense.
However, they will not have it as easy on Wednesday night, as the Eagles are a far more formidable opponent.
Offensively, Navarro has led the way. However, there's more to that, as Navarro has thrown only seven touchdowns compared to six interceptions.
The Bobs run the ball most of the time, so Navarro has been tasked to do more with his legs than his arm. However, Eastern Michigan has been strong against the run, so Navarro will be asked to throw more than usual.
That's not a bad move against an Eastern Michigan secondary that has been suspect throughout the season.
With a much slower tempo than the Eagles, the Bobcats will really need to capitalize in the red zone.
I like the Bobs' defensive matchup, but I have questions about their ability to hold up in the secondary. They rank 103rd in EPA/Play against the pass, which is not a good sign going up against Snyder.
The defensive line has been excellent against the run, but the Eagles don't run the ball that often. I would expect the defense to be challenged in the secondary for the majority of the evening.
Both of these teams have overperformed thus far, but I can't lay double digits with Ohio here.
Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio Prediction
I'm backing Eastern Michigan on the road here, as this is a bit of a sleepy spot for Ohio.
The Bobcats' 41-0 win last week looks impressive, but they capitalized on a ton of mistakes from Kent State that ballooned the score.
Ohio also ranks 100th in strength of schedule, so it's not like it's faced a murderer's row of opponents. The Eagles come in at 125th in the same category, but there's no way the Bobs should be laying double digits here.
Snyder should benefit from a plus matchup against a vulnerable Ohio secondary, and EMU's uptempo offense should do some damage. The Eagles defense also does an outstanding job of limiting rush explosives, which is the strength of Ohio's offense.
I'm happy to back the Eagles to keep it close on Wednesday night.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +10 (Play to +8.5)
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Kent State vs. Miami (OH) Pick: Can Flashes Keep It Close?
A chance at a conference title and joining the ranks of college football infamy hang in the balance with Miami (OH) and Kent State. It just means more in the MAC.
Kent State (0-9, 0-5 MAC) is the lone FBS team void of a win this season. Losing its final three games of the season would make it the first 0-12 team since fellow MAC program Akron “accomplished” the feat in 2019.
On the complete opposite end of the spectrum is Miami. The RedHawks (5-4, 4-1) are 1 of 3 teams with only 1 loss atop the MAC standings. Miami is looking to become the first repeat MAC champion since Northern Illinois in the 2011 and 2012 seasons.
While the teams have very different goals left for the season, a 30-point spread is a huge number to cover. Will the Golden Flashes avoid such a huge blowout?
Let's take a look at my Kent State vs. Miami (OH) predictions and college football picks for this Mid-American Conference clash on Wednesday, Nov. 13.
Kent State Golden Flashes
In a season full of lows, Kent State managed to create an even lower low last week against Ohio.
It’s one thing to be shut out by the likes of college football powers Tennessee and Penn State earlier this season. It’s another thing to be shut out at home by Ohio, losing 41-0.
The Golden Flashes managed just 114 total yards of offense, only slightly better than their output against the Volunteers and Nittany Lions. Eight of their 12 possessions ended in either a three-and-out or an interception.
The game marked the first career start for quarterback Ruel Tomlinson. The freshman got the nod over Tommy Ulatowski in hopes of creating any sort of spark on the offense.
As the score indicates, the switch sparked no such change. The Golden Flash offense continues to be one of the worst in the country, ranking in the bottom five nationally in Pass Success Rate, Rush Success Rate, Quality Drives and Havoc allowed.
Their 15.1 points scored per game is only better than Florida State.
The 41 points Kent State surrendered to Ohio was the sixth time it has allowed at least 41 points this season. Kent State’s 46.0 points allowed per game is the worst in the country by more than a field goal.
Similar to its offense, there's no real strength to the Kent State defense, with the Golden Flashes ranking bottom-10 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and Rush Success Rate allowed.
Miami RedHawks
The RedHawks needed two fourth-quarter field goals to do so, but Miami’s repeat MAC title hopes stayed intact last week against Ball State. The win marked Miami’s fifth in six tries.
Quarterback Brett Gabbert tossed three touchdowns in the game. The sixth-year senior has been the driving force behind a Miami offense that ranks 46th in Pass Success Rate. Gabbert’s 16 passing touchdowns are tied for the second-most in the MAC.
Nationally, few teams run the ball less often than the RedHawks, who rank just 120th in Rush Success Rate. The RedHawks' five rushing touchdowns are better than only Kent State in the conference.
Whoever starts at quarterback for Kent State will likely struggle against the Miami secondary. The RedHawks are one of three MAC teams holding teams to fewer than 200 yards passing per game (194.1), and it's top-25 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Its run defense has also rounded into form as conference play has progressed. The RedHawks have held four of their past five opponents to 110 yards rushing or fewer, with only one of those opponents averaging more than 3.0 yards per carry.
Kent State vs. Miami (OH) Prediction
This is an obvious mismatch. But four-plus scores between two MAC teams?
Miami has only beaten Central Michigan by a number this big. Kent State has kept three of its five conference games within this number.
The RedHawks operate one of the slowest offenses in the country, and Kent State also isn’t exactly a warp-speed offense. With the continued quarterback carousel, it could easily look to just keep its offense on the ground, bleed clock and limit as much damage as possible on the road.
While it's possible that the Golden Flashes will finish this season winless, I’m going to plug my nose this week, thinking Kent State can at least avoid a complete catastrophe against Miami.
Pick: Kent State +30.5
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Akron vs. Northern Illinois Pick: Blowout in DeKalb
Week 12 brings us some more MACtion when the Akron Zips (2-7, 1-4 MAC) visit the Northern Illinois Huskies (5-4, 2-3) in DeKalb, Illinois, at Huskie Stadium on Wednesday night. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Zips enter this one having lost 4 of their last 5 games, including a 41-30 defeat at the hands of Buffalo last week. Northern Illinois enters this one coming off of a 42-28 win a week ago at Western Michigan after dropping the 2 games prior.
The Zips have had their struggles in this matchup, as they have beaten the Huskies just once since 2018. At the same time, all of those losses to NIU have come by double digits.
Northern Illinois enters this one as a -15.5 home favorite with the over/under set at 45.5.
Will the Huskies continue their dominance over the Zips, or will the story be different this year in DeKalb? Let's dive into my Akron vs. Northern Illinois predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Nov. 13.
Akron Zips
Head coach Joe Moorhead is in his third season in Akron, and he has yet to eclipse the two-win mark since his departure from Oregon in 2021. It won’t be easy, but Northern Illinois is a beatable team if Akron can execute well.
Moorhead will be feeling increased pressure to get over the hump and show some improvement year over year, or he could find himself searching for a new job.
The Akron offense has struggled all season, averaging just under 19 points per game.
Ben Finley leads the team under center and has provided some solid offensive outputs as well as some bad ones, as he has just 12 touchdowns to his nine interceptions on the season.
These turnovers and lack of offensive output — especially early in games — have led to Akron playing from behind constantly, which is a big reason it ranks 21st in Pass Rate.
The Zips are not built to air it out, ranking 109th in Pass Success Rate and 96th in Pass Explosiveness.
The key will be to find a way to keep this game close and run the ball with junior Jordan Simmons, who's averaging nearly six yards per carry on the season.
The Zips rank a better 81st in Rush Success Rate, and it all starts with getting Simmons more touches. Look for Moorhead to get him the ball a lot earlier in the game to control the clock and give them an opportunity to be a bit more balanced offensively.
Defensively, Akron can't stop anyone on the ground or through the air.
The Zips allow 36 points per game on over 400 yards of offense. They rank 121st in Success Rate allowed and 102nd in Havoc, so they're not forcing turnovers or making game-changing plays defensively.
They get flat-out beat each and every week.
The only bright spot when it comes to trying to cover larger numbers is a rank of 65th in Explosiveness allowed, so teams don’t necessarily run away with games quickly. They'll need to limit big plays here if they hope to cover the number in this one.
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock has had a bumpy road in his sixth season in DeKalb. After pulling off the biggest upset in college football this season at Notre Dame, his team has been shaky, going 3-4 since that program-defining victory.
There's no secret that this was Antario Brown’s offense. The Huskies' goal was to give it to him and let him make plays on the ground. After a leg injury last week, it looks like he will miss this game, leaving the run game up to the offensive line and running backs Telly Johnson Jr. and Gavin Williams.
Brown was a star, but I think this run game that ranks 23rd in Rush Success Rate should continue to find holes even with Johnson in the backfield.
Quarterback Ethan Hampton has also been very good in Hammock’s scheme, as the Huskies rank a solid 51st in Pass Success Rate and 14th in Pass Explosiveness.
The Huskies can put points up on anyone, and they should have every opportunity against a weak Akron defense this week.
The run game has helped mask Hammock’s defensive unit. The Huskies allow just under 19 points per game but allow over 400 yards of offense.
They've been fantastic in the red zone, limiting touchdowns and holding their opponents to field goals. A lot of this can be attributed to a run defense that ranks 54th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Huskies should be able to slow Simmons, so it will be on Finley and the Akron air attack to beat a Northern Illinois pass defense that ranks 19th in Pass Success Rate allowed. Good luck with that.
This defense should be able to hold strong against a struggling Akron offense.
Akron vs. Northern Illinois Prediction
While I'm nervous laying a big number with such a low total, Northern Illinois is the significantly better football team here.
The Huskies should be able to score on most of their possessions and have a major advantage on the other side of the ball. Northern Illinois should have no problem making things difficult for the Akron offense.
I'll be backing the Huskies and laying the points at -15.5.
Pick: Northern Illinois -15.5
