The college football season got off to a nice little start last week, but Week 1 is here.
It’s time for our annual smorgasbord weekend, with non-stop action from Thursday night all the way into Monday evening. Even though this slate is rich with FBS-on-FCS laughers, we still have plenty to go around, and it’s time to drink from the firehose.
Week 0 was a banner day for the underdogs as Georgia Tech started the year with a major upset of No. 10 Florida State. Two home underdogs from the Mountain West, Nevada and New Mexico, almost pulled off upset victories, but at least both hung in long enough to cover and deliver winning tickets to their backers.
So, should you go all-in on underdogs? Is this the year of the upset? Well, let’s wait until we have a larger sample size to make any sweeping declarations.
Let’s find out what will happen in Week 1.
The weekend is jam-packed, so let’s run down some things you need to know to get to the window.
Thursday, Aug. 29
New Hampshire at UCF
This game is steamy. Not just because of the hot, humid, August weather in Florida, but also because of the line movement. This line opened at UCF -33.5 and has moved into the 40s at most shops.
As I wrote in my detailed game breakdown, Gus Malzahn squashes bugs.
In six home games at UCF as a favorite of over three touchdowns, Malzahn’s Knights are a perfect 6-0 against the spread. Expect this three-headed rushing attack — RJ Harvey, Peny Boone and KJ Jefferson — to get downhill on their way to dominance.
Murray State at Missouri
Missouri, the Official Team of The College Football Weekly Betting Primer, kicks off its season as almost “half-a-hunnerd” favorites against Murray State. The Racers handed the reins of their program over to former Nick Saban assistant Jody Wright, who is the first of six first-year head coaches the Tigers will face this season.
While Mizzou hasn’t made a habit of covering large spreads under Eliah Drinkwitz in September, it also haven’t started the year ranked in the top 15 before. Nobody on Murray State can hang with Mizzou’s electric wide receiver Luther Burden III (+8000 to win the Heisman), who is all that and a bag of chips.
North Carolina at Minnesota
This is a rematch of a game UNC won handily last year in the same Thursday night Week 1 spot, 31-13. Both teams have phenomenal ballcarriers: UNC’s Omarion Hampton and Minnesota’s Darius Taylor are both superstars, but Taylor might not play this week because of a leg injury.
If Carolina repeats its success from last year in this spot, it’s because it got another Herculean effort from its brightest star, this time Hampton.
North Dakota State at Colorado
Deion Sanders’ Colorado program is one of the most polarizing teams in recent memory. You either love the brashness, the swagger, the extreme transfer portal usage, or you hate it. One way or another, the Buffaloes draw America’s attention — and our action. Prime’s program is the most-bet school in the country, and the handle on some of the popular futures bets around this team is off the charts. On Thursday night, Colorado will take center stage as it hosts a program that knows all about winning, the North Dakota State Bison, a school with more trophies than Shedeur Sanders has watches. With a spread of Colorado -9.5, most believe the Buffs have the high-end star talent to win, despite a much longer track record of winning on the other sideline.
Friday, Aug. 30
Western Michigan at Wisconsin
This game wasn’t a standout matchup for me when looking at the slate, and maybe it's flying under your radar, too. But our "Group of 5 Deep Dive" podcast laid out a compelling argument for Western Michigan to go into Camp Randall and cover the spread.
The Broncos are a returning production darling, and Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell has a severe aversion to covering large spreads as a favorite.
TCU at Stanford
Stake your claim: Our Action PRO Projection system loves Stanford and the points in this Friday night matchup. But the people have spoken: Of the almost 11,000 bets on this game logged in the Action app, 89% are eschewing our numbers to lay the points with the road favorite and backing the Horned Frogs.
Saturday, Aug. 31
Clemson vs. Georgia
The biggest game of the weekend features two programs with multiple national titles in the past decade. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs are two-touchdown favorites in this oft-played non-conference matchup.
His school has a heavy historic advantage over Clemson (43-18-4), and also the most recent win, a 10-3 strangulation of the DJ Uiagalelei-led offense in 2021. Note: Smart shared that starting running back Trevor Etienne might be suspended for this matchup after an offseason DUI.
Notre Dame at Texas A&M
Notre Dame’s season comes down to a trio of gargantuan showdowns. Dates with USC, Florida State and this week’s opener in College Station will define whether the Golden Domers can build a playoff-worthy resume in Marcus Freeman’s third year. The Irish are -170 to make and +138 to miss the first ever 12-team field at FanDuel.
James Madison at Charlotte
This is a game of two extreme unknowns: James Madison is turning over essentially its entire roster and coaching staff, with only a few holdovers remaining from the excellent teams of the past two years that led the wildly successful transition into FBS.
Additionally, Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi came out this week and said in his press conference that “about 50%” of his starters would be out after a physical month of fall camp. That statement caused the line to move about a field goal in JMU’s favor.
Wyoming at Arizona State
Collin Wilson’s Action Network Power Ratings believe this game should be closer to Wyoming +1.5, offering an edge of almost a touchdown. At this point in the preseason, when numbers have been posted for ages and hammered into shape, that kind of value is hard to find.
Kenny Dillingham is still getting his Arizona State program off the mat. Now, his team has to face a tough-nosed Wyoming program that, yes, is replacing head coach Craig Bohl, but still has plenty of giant-slaying DNA in the building.
Nevada at Troy
Nevada’s surprisingly strong showing in Week 0 against a much-hyped SMU squad caused this line to crash almost a touchdown after opening at Nevada +16.5. The Wolf Pack’s defense was impressive against the high-powered Mustangs — for about 55 minutes.
They will face a Troy team that is not your father’s Troy outfit — or heck, not even the Troy of the past two years. The Trojans lost head coach Jon Sumrall to Tulane after he compiled a 23-4 record, and rank 131st in Bill Connelly’s returning production metric.
South Dakota State at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State ranks third in the nation in Bill Connelly’s returning production, a big chunk of which is superstar running back Ollie Gordon. Unfortunately, when the Cowboys set up their schedule for the 2024 season, they looked at the menu and ordered the kind of food that bites back.
South Dakota State is the two-time defending FCS national champion, and probably has the better quarterback in this game with Mark Gronowski. The Jackrabbits are 9.5-point underdogs and should be considered live and dangerous.
Sunday, Sept. 1
LSU vs. USC (Las Vegas)
Two extreme offense-first ball clubs meet in Las Vegas in a Sunday night showcase. BJ Cunningham lays out the case for a high total (64) to go over, even with both teams breaking in new quarterbacks. Both teams also have new defensive coordinators, and each of their playbooks will be tested by a high-powered opponent out of the gate. This one promises to be entertaining and pointsy.
Monday, Sept. 2
Boston College at Florida State
The long weekend wraps up with another standalone, primetime affair, this one a conference game rich with intrigue.
Florida State will look to bounce back after its high-profile upset to start the season, but has to face a Boston College program that might just have the ingredients to do pull another upset. New head coach Bill O’Brien will look to elevate the Eagles, and his quarterback, Thomas Castellanos, is a dynamic scrambler. We just saw Florida State struggle against that same type of player.
Earlier this week, Stuckey wrote his annual report on games featuring teams making their debut against programs that played in Week 0: “It's a minuscule sample size, but teams making their season debut against a conference foe that played in Week 0 have gone 14-3 ATS (82.3%), covering by an average of just under a touchdown per game.”
