Week 10 of the college football season is here, and we have some top-tier games on the docket.
This week's slate features two top-15 duels in the SEC, as the No. 12 Missouri Tigers look to take over the East Division from the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs before the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide try to exact revenge against the No. 14 LSU Tigers after losing in overtime in Baton Rouge last season.
But that's not all.
The final edition of Bedlam will take place in Stillwater, as Ollie Gordon II and the Oklahoma State Cowboys hope to send the No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners to the SEC with a loss in the final in-state clash.
And to kick it all off, the No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats and No. 7 Texas Longhorns duke it out in what is essentially a Big 12 Championship knockout game.
I broke down all four matchups and found a few bets across the board, so let's dive into my Week 10 college football Action Network betting card.
Collin Wilson's Week 10 NCAAF Betting Card
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
No. 23 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Texas
In a year of transition, the Big 12 is set for collision over the month of November. Five teams sit at 4-1 in the conference with hopes of participating in the Big 12 Championship game in Arlington.
Kansas State and Texas are both in the thick of it, as Week 10 will serve as a knockout punch to the loser in Austin.
The only loss in conference loss for the Wildcats came against Oklahoma State in Week 6, while the Longhorns suffered defeat against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
Both teams have seen a change at the quarterback positions in recent weeks.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian lost Quinn Ewers to an AC joint sprain that's expected to linger through the remainder of the regular season. Texas beat oddsmakers' expectations in Week 9 with a sound victory over BYU with Maalik Murphy at the helm.
For the Wildcats, head coach Chris Klieman has a freshman sensation in the fold. After losing Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez from last year's Big 12 Championship team, this offense may be just as explosive and efficient on the ground as the 2022 version.
The winner of this game will be a favorite in Arlington, while the loser will be the Big 12 bowl team no program wants to face.
Kansas State Wildcats
No offense is peaking in college football as much as Kansas State entering the month of November.
The Wildcats play in 11 and 12 personnel with every run concept in the book, from inside zone and power to pull lead and counter.
Kansas State has been one of the most explosive rush units with pulling linemen, owning a 64% Success Rate accompanied by a high 0.58 Expected Points per Attempt.
Running back DJ Giddens has been a workhorse, averaging 3.2 yards after contact while creating 40 missed tackles.
The offense is even more electric in designed run calls for the two-quarterback system with Will Howard and Avery Johnson. Combined, the two signal-callers have generated more than 550 yards from designed play calls, led by an offensive line that ranks 12th in run blocking, per PFF.
Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has seen improvement from the 3-3-5 scheme, ranking top-15 in opponent Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
The defense has limited opposing offenses in driving the field and cashing in on scoring opportunities with a top-20 rank in Quality and Finishing Drives.
The one question with the Wildcats is the strength of schedule, including the offenses faced. Kansas State suffered early one-possession losses to Missouri and Oklahoma State but has not allowed any team to score more than 31 points so far this season.
Texas Longhorns
Murphy took over starting quarterback duties in a Week 9 victory over BYU, completing 16 of his 26 passes for 170 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The redshirt freshman utilized low-risk passing, completing 12-of-17 attempts shorter than 10 yards.
Wide receiver Xavier Worthy was the primary hot route for Murphy, receiving 10 targets for four catches and three drops. Murphy targeted Georgia transfer AD Mitchell in scoring position, as the combination linked up for both touchdown throws on the day.
Maalik Murphy’s first career TD pass goes to AD Mitchell. 🤘 pic.twitter.com/0HUapvCE7P
— TFB Texas (@TFB_Texas) October 28, 2023
While the spotlight was on the offensive side for Texas in Week 9, it's the defense that continues to elevate the program.
BYU was limited to just 30% of available yards and nearly no success in scoring position. Texas ranks sixth in Defensive Finishing Drives this season, allowing just 2.6 points per opponent drive that crosses the 40-yard line.
Of utmost importance in this game is the rush defense, ranking top-16 in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate with the ninth-toughest strength of schedule in the country.
Defensive interior T'Vondre Sweat grades out as the second-best run defender of all players in FBS, per PFF.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's 4-2-5 defense has been highly successful in standard downs, forcing the most three-and-outs in FBS at 87.5%.
Kansas State vs Texas
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Texas offense continues to struggle in scoring position, averaging just 3.9 points per possession in opportunities beyond the 40-yard line. Those numbers continue to fall the closer the Longhorns get to the goal line, as they rank 120th in red-zone touchdown rate.
If there's a defense that excels in keeping opponents out of the end zone, it's the Wildcats. Kansas State comes in at 10th in Defensive Finishing Drives and third nationally in opponent red-zone touchdown rate.
Murphy had no issues with BYU's coverage unit that ran a mixture of Cover 1 and Cover 3. Murphy, the redshirt freshman, will get a completely different look against Kansas State with a coverage package that's heavy in quarters, four-deep and three-under zone using man-to-man principles.
This coverage will allow Kansas State to double Mitchell and Worthy, the biggest area of focus considering the lack of rushing success from the Longhorns offense.
The Wildcats will also send blitz on 31% of defensive snaps, an area Murphy has struggled with in terms of adjusted completion rate in crowded pockets.
On the other side of the ball, there's hope Texas can put up a few hurdles for the Kansas State rushing attack. The Longhorns have had the most success against outside zone, a rush concept that's used the least by the Wildcats.
Texas has middling success against inside zone in 94 attempts by opponents. The large unknown is Kwiatkowski's front seven against pulling linemen and counter concepts — something the Texas defense has seen on just 33 opponent rushing attempts this season.
This could be a low-scoring affair, as Murphy will see quarters coverage for the first time from this Kansas State defense.
Texas has severe struggles in getting methodical drives to generate points on the scoreboard, evidenced by a large contrast in touchdown ratio with these teams.
As for Kansas State, the offensive ground attack is expected to show looks the Texas front seven has not seen this season. Even with experience against inside zone, Texas has yet to see this run concept from an offense with multiple running backs or tight ends.
Action Network projects Texas as a three-point favorite in a game with a few unknowns.
Because Murphy has yet to face quarters coverage and the Texas defense has not seen run concepts from the personnel Kansas State is set to present, look for the game to start slow on both sides of the ball.
The Wildcats will methodically move down the field with pulling linemen and counter concepts, while Texas will attempt to establish consistency against a Kansas State defense that's in protect mode against explosives.
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No. 9 Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
There's no other word to describe what the scene will be in Stillwater on Saturday other than "Bedlam."
One of the longest rivalries in college football is coming to an end with Oklahoma’s departure for the SEC in 2024.
The Sooners were happy to pair up with the Texas Longhorns for greener pastures in the pocketbook, ending a rivalry with the Cowboys after 120 years. Oklahoma leads the series in football, 91-19-7, a reason it's has shown no remorse in its bolt from the Big 12.
The feelings are not mutual for Oklahoma State, as the entire Big 12 scrambled for answers before adding a laundry list of new teams to the conference.
OSU head coach Mike Gundy emphatically stated Oklahoma State will be fine in the new-look Big 12, and all questions about the breakup should be directed at Oklahoma.
The stakes are high, as the loser takes a step back in their attempt to make the Big 12 Championship game.
The Cowboys' players, coaches and fans are sure to have Boone Pickens Stadium hotter than a livestock branding iron come Saturday afternoon.
Oklahoma Sooners
In Week 9, Oklahoma suffered an outright loss against Kansas for the first time in nearly two decades.
The Jayhawks averaged 6.5 yards in standard downs, having just 17-of-41 rushing attempts stuffed at the line of scrimmage.
Kansas recorded four rushing touchdowns and five explosive runs, numbers that piled on after the loss of Sooners linebacker Danny Stutsman to injury.
Brent Venables says on his coaches show that cornerback Gentry Williams practiced today.
As for Danny Stutsman and Tawee Walker… "Fingers crossed." #Sooners
— George Stoia III (@GeorgeStoia) October 31, 2023
Stutsman is the key cog in this defense, leading the team with 47 tackles while creating 12 pressures from the middle linebacker position.
The Sooners have severe issues with tackling and rank 82nd in broken tackles allowed. Stutsman has one of the best missed tackle percentages on the team at 8.5%, but a large number of starters — including linebacker Jaren Kanak and safety Billy Bowman Jr. — have missed more than 25% of tackle opportunities.
Stutsman's health is paramount to the handicap against the Oklahoma State offense.
The Sooners continue to struggle offensively in creating explosives. While their Success Rate ranks top-20 in standard and passing downs, only one rushing attempt has gone for 40 yards or more on the season.
Tawee Walker is the only option in the backfield who averages more than three yards after contact, making him an important watch on the injury report.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel could not do enough in the passing game to beat Kansas. The fifth-year senior has nearly as many turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws, failing to log a passing touchdown against the Jayhawks.
While Oklahoma has generated a Success Rate of 30th in passing, a drop to 85th in explosives has hampered the Sooners in logging available yards.
The issues may be on the shoulders of Gabriel, who's averaging the lowest depth of target and drop rate marks of his career.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Gundy has not posted a losing season as the coach of Oklahoma State since his inaugural season in 2005. The preseason win total closed at 6.5, suggesting that any misstep by the Pokes could keep the team home from the postseason for the first time since the Bush administration.
Early losses to South Alabama and Iowa State suggested the oddsmakers were correct in the win total — that is, until the emergence of sophomore running back Ollie Gordon II.
Ollie Gordon’s stats in Oklahoma State’s last THREE games:
— 858 yards (721 rushing, 137 receiving)
— Eight touchdowns
— 8.7 yards per carry
— 24 runs or catches of 10+ yards
— 10 runs or catches of 25+ yards
— Six runs or catches of 40+ yards— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) October 29, 2023
The handicap on Oklahoma State begins and ends with Gordon, who's responsible for more than 37% of the total offense for the Pokes. The second-year player averages 4.7 yards after contact, ranking as a top-10 running back nationally with 43 missed tackles created.
The Cowboys' run concepts are split between gap and zone concepts, with Gordon having the highest expected points in outside zone attempts. Off-tackle rushing attempts by Gordon have been the bread and butter of this offensive line.
The resurrection of quarterback Alan Bowman's career has been remarkable as well. After suffering injuries and transferring from both Texas Tech and Michigan, the sixth-year senior has his best big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate of his career since his freshman season in 2018.
All of the talk in the preseason for the Pokes defense centered around new coordinator Bryan Nardo.
The 37-year-old had previous experience at Gannon University and Youngstown State, making one of the biggest coaching ladder moves in recent FBS history.
Gundy praised Nardo's system, as the Cowboys remain a 3-3-5 defense with quarters coverage.
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Bedlam comes down to a single handicap when Oklahoma State has the ball: Can the Sooners stop Gordon?
Oklahoma ranks top-25 in Success Rate and Line Yards against the rush and comes in at second nationally in Stuff Rate. The Sooners' defensive front has locked down attempts from opponents running inside zone, man, counter and power run concepts.
Where Oklahoma falls back in the pack in terms of Success Rate and EPA is against outside zone attempts.
Oklahoma State will throw every run concept in the book at OU, but its highest Success Rate and EPA marks come from running outside zone.
If Stutsman is unable to go, Kanak must play his best game of the year to keep Gordon's runs from getting to the second level.
Oklahoma State ranks third nationally in standard downs explosives, a stark contrast to Oklahoma's defensive rank of 105th in allowing explosives in standard downs.
The good news for Gabriel is the familiarity with quarters coverage — the highest usage of any secondary package for the Pokes. Without a running game, Oklahoma will depend on Gabriel's connections to Nic Anderson and Drake Stoops for scoring.
Action Network projects Oklahoma as a 6.5-point favorite with both teams at full health. That number will come down with any negative news on Stutsman, a key element of the Sooners defense who does not miss tackles.
Without Stutsman roaming the tackle box, Gordon will be free to peel off the Cowboys' offensive tackles for big gains.
Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables' defense must have a captain at middle linebacker to call out plays and line up the rest of the defense.
Without Stutsman, this is a play on Oklahoma State to end the Bedlam Series with a cover — and maybe even a victory.
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No. 12 Missouri vs. No. 2 Georgia
The Missouri Tigers deserve a celebration after winning seven games for the first time since the 2018 season.
Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has his first winning season in Columbia, as the SEC East squad will attend a third consecutive bowl game. With the successful season comes the biggest roadblock on the schedule: a date with Georgia to determine the leader in the division.
The Bulldogs have been in binary mode all season, with no interest in covering early-season games against UT Martin, South Carolina, UAB or Auburn.
Once the calendar turned to October, Georgia flexed its explosive muscles despite losing its best offensive player in tight end Brock Bowers.
The Bulldogs have scored 131 points over the past 12 quarters of SEC play, so the ceiling for the offense is unknown with four games to go.
If Georgia shows up to this Week 10 divisional clash uninterested, Missouri has a chance to be the East representative in Atlanta.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri's recent offensive consistency on offense can be attributed to new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore. Drinkwitz was adamant at SEC Media Days about handing the offense over to the former Fresno State coordinator.
This has been a balanced attack, frequently lining up in 11 personnel with a handful of offensive plays in 10 and 12.
Missouri has an even distribution of inside and outside zone play calls, but success had eluded the offense. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in Line Yards, producing an Offensive Stuff Rate that's near dead last in the nation.
The positive Success Rate and explosives come with a passing offense led by quarterback Brady Cook. The junior is having the best season of his career, led by a 20:7 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio.
Cook may have the best weapon in college football in Luther Burden III, the highest-graded slot receiver by PFF.
Coordinator Blake Baker has produced a stout rush defense, as the Tigers place top-20 in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The 3-3-5 defense has been aggressive with blitz on 42% of snaps but has also left the defense open on the back end. Missouri has allowed plenty of explosives in standard downs, compiled by a rank outside the top 75 in coverage grading and against the big play.
Missouri has given up an average of 4.2 points in 39 opponent drives across the 40-yard line.
Georgia Bulldogs
With the loss of Bowers, the expectation was Georgia would become a more vertical passing team. Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo runs a slightly different style of offense than predecessor Todd Monken, relying on play-action passing to generate more downfield completions.
The results speak for themselves, as Georgia has logged 20 explosive passes in the last three games against Kentucky, Georgia and Florida.
Carson Beck gets credit for the yards, Ladd McConkey does all the work@GeorgiaFootball | #GoDawgspic.twitter.com/IsjUDBxXpc
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) October 28, 2023
Georgia's rushing attack has not shown a high level of success or explosives thus far in the season, but the passing attack continues to rise in the expected points category on a weekly basis.
Beck has a 9:1 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate on passes beyond 20 yards. Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett was an explosive slot target for the Tigers last season and has received 33% of his targets in the past two weeks.
While the offense has been recreated in the wake of Bowers' absence, the defense has been vulnerable in the front seven.
Georgia has the 100th-ranked strength of schedule, slipping up in terms of rush defense. Opposing offenses running man-blocking schemes with counter have been highly successful.
The Bulldogs tighten up in passing downs, ranking as the best overall defense on third downs. Georgia has allowed only two passes to exceed 40 yards this season.
Missouri vs Georgia
Betting Pick & Prediction
Teams that have been able to run the ball in man-blocking concepts have had success against Georgia's front seven. These rushing attempts have been low on Missouri's priority list, as less than 10% of its run concepts are counter, and those attempts have resulted in a middling Success Rate.
Missouri will look to utilize a highly successful passing attack straight into a Georgia defense that dares opponents to throw.
Georgia runs a heavy amount of quarters and Cover 3 — the two packages Missouri has the highest Success Rate and explosiveness against.
Cook has generated a big play on at least 20% of snaps against quarters and Cover 3 this season, giving the Tigers hope against the Georgia defense in Week 10.
While the Missouri passing attack is good-on-good against the Georgia secondary, Beck may have more advantages when attacking the Tigers' back seven.
Missouri's zone coverage is predominately Cover 1 and Cover 3, with a higher Success Rate in Cover 1. Well, Beck's biggest strengths are against Cover 1 and Cover 3.
Differing from Cook, Beck is expected to have a much bigger day in creating explosives and limiting the negative play.
The focus of the secondaries should also center around slot position, as this game will feature the two best offensive weapons in college football in former teammates Burden and Lovett.
Georgia will assign fifth-year senior Tykee Smith to Burden, hoping to limit the explosive target similar to last season.
The good news for Missouri is that Burden played a wideout role in last year's game before moving to the inside slot this season.
As for Lovett, the Tigers are expected to send Daylan Carnell after the former Missouri slot receiver. Carnell has been targeted 43 times this season, allowing 29 catches for an average of 8.2 yards per reception.
There's certainly an advantage for Georgia when it comes to explosive slot receivers who will be the difference-makers in this game.
Action Network projects Georgia as a -13.5 favorite with a total above the key number of 59.
With both offenses struggling to establish a rushing attack, Cook and Beck are expected to rack up plenty of passing yards. Both quarterbacks are excellent against the coverage packages presented by the opposing defenses.
While the power ratings indicate value on the Missouri point spread, the Bulldogs have yet to slow down on offense after losing Bowers.
Look to take an over on the right side of the biggest key number in totals at 55.
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No. 14 LSU vs. No. 8 Alabama
Is there another rivalry in college football that delivers more to the college football consumer than LSU and Alabama?
Brian Kelly took over head-coaching duties in Baton Rouge a season ago, rebuilding the Tigers through the portal. The former Notre Dame coach delivered, beating Alabama in overtime to represent the West Division in the SEC Championship.
Heading to overtime is par for the course in this series. Dating back to 2005, five of the 18 iterations of this game in November have gone to overtime.
Alabama will be seeking revenge, as this game serves as a knockout for the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff.
The Crimson Tide are undefeated in the conference standings, suffering a loss in nonconference bout against Texas. LSU, meanwhile, previously lost to Ole Miss in conference play, so a victory for the Tigers would create a three-way tie at the top of the SEC West.
If College Football Playoff and Heisman markets are seeking chaos, an LSU victory would be the first domino.
LSU Tigers
The worst offensive performance for LSU was the first game out of the gate, when it scored 24 points against Florida State. The Tigers rank second in the country in points per game, averaging 43.9 with an offense led by quarterback Jayden Daniels.
The Arizona State transfer spent the offseason bulking up for the inside zone run game LSU would put on film this season. The Tigers are the No. 1 offense in several categories, starting with Rushing Success Rate and Quality Drives.
Along with Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs, the inside zone rushing attack from Daniels is one of the biggest issues for Alabama to resolve.
While the rushing attack leads the nation, LSU has been one of the most explosive teams in passing the ball.
Daniels leads an offense that's the best overall in Passing Downs Success Rate and ranks 25th in pass explosives.
Wide receiver Malik Nabers has one of the highest yards per route run in the nation at 3.7, splitting positions on the field between slot to wideout.
#LSU WR Malik Nabers has an innate ability to find soft spots in zone coverage and exploit it with his explosiveness after the catch. Turns it into another gear in an instant.
Sinks smoothly in and out of his routes (Jayden Daniels is playing at a high level too). Fun prospect. pic.twitter.com/JM0l1L6BYb
— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) October 26, 2023
The LSU offense has needed to score over 40 points a game based on necessity, as the defense has struggled to rank inside the top 100 in the most important categories.
Defensive coordinator Matt House has no answers for a unit that has not been able to stop the rush or keep opposing offenses off the scoreboard.
The hybrid 3-4 and 3-3-5 scheme ranks outside the top 100 in Defensive Pass and Rush Expected Points.
More importantly, LSU ranks 117th in Defensive Finishing Drives, a number that dips even further to 130th in red-zone efficiency.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Similar to the Tigers, Alabama suffered an early nonconference loss that has players and staffers scrambling for an identity.
The Crimson Tide traveled to USF in Week 3 with starting quarterback Jalen Milroe benched for Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner.
Milroe was named the permanent starter after the game and has logged nearly every pass attempt since Week 4. The third-year quarterback has been on-point since the benching, creating a 10:4 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays.
The deep ball from Milroe has been most impressive, generating 17 big-time throws, 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Alabama is the top team in the country in creating explosives in passing downs. Milroe has an arsenal of weapons averaging more than two yards per route run in Isaiah Bond, Jermaine Burton and Kobe Prentice.
When Alabama isn't hitting targets downfield, Milroe has run inside zone with an average Success Rate. The offensive line has stepped up after early-season mishaps, grading out as the eighth-best unit in run blocking, per PFF.
While the offense has worked to create an identity all season, defensive coordinator Kevin Steele has coached a defense that's one of the best in the nation against the run and pass.
Alabama boasts the top-ranked secondary in coverage grading and also supplies a top-10 pass rush in the front seven.
No matter what package the Crimson Tide put on the field, nothing but success and negative plays for the opponent have come in attempted pass plays.
LSU vs Alabama
Betting Pick & Prediction
The handicap in Alabama-LSU may come down to the defense that's best suited to stop inside zone.
Both Milroe and Daniels have been excellent in the run package and have found a way to hit hot-read slants in the passing game if the rush lanes aren't available.
Starting with Alabama, the Tide have seen inside zone more than any other run concept from opponents.
Alabama rotates between six to eight players in the box to defend inside zone, generating a 59% Success Rate against the run scheme. The Crimson Tide are 10th nationally in defending rush explosives, allowing a negative expected points value to opponents that attempt inside zone.
Like Alabama, the LSU defense has seen inside zone the most of any run concept this season. However, the Tigers' Success Rate and explosiveness numbers differ from the Tide against this run scheme.
There's a stark contrast in Success Rate for each defense against inside zone, with Alabama posting a 59% Success Rate to LSU at 44%.
The Crimson Tide have a large advantage in stopping Daniels and Diggs with inside zone rushing attempts, but LSU's ability to get the ball to Nabers on the hot read is critical. The third-year target has spent 138 snaps in the slot compared to 139 out wide.
Coverage inside the hash marks within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage will be paramount for Alabama, as Nabers has caught 17-of-22 balls with 130 yards after the catch in that area.
Alabama slot cornerback Terrion Arnold has cleared concussion protocol and resumed practices after the Tennessee game. Arnold is one of the highest-graded slot cornerbacks in the nation, allowing just over half of his 38 targets to end in a completion while recording seven forced incompletions.
Safety Malachi Moore is also one of the highest-graded defensive backs in the nation, lining up in the slot in 316 of his 469 snaps this season. Alabama will need every bit of its high coverage marks to keep LSU's passing offense from scoring.
LSU's defense is poor in stopping inside zone rushing attempts, but will the Tigers be able to defend Milroe's deep ball? The Tigers' secondary ranks 91st in coverage grading while producing a mark 107th rank in Passing Downs Success Rate, which does not bode well for them.
Of the top 200 graded cornerbacks and safeties in PFF's database, LSU does not list a single player.
Action Network sets this game at Alabama -7 with a total of 60. While the total in the market is spot on with the projection, there's a signal that side wagers should fall on the Crimson Tide.
Alabama has the better defense defending inside zone and can cover Nabers' feasting area between the hash marks.
Look for an Alabama victory and cover, as the Tide start to look forward to Atlanta and the SEC Championship.
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