Let's dive into our favorite college football favorites to bet in Week 10 of the NCAAF season.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Just like every week with this beautiful sport, there are plenty of intriguing favorites on the board this week.
Collin will get things started with a Big Ten matchup between Minnesota and a ranked Illinois team, while I'll head out to the SEC, where Auburn hosts Vanderbilt in a post-noon clash.
Let's take a look at our Week 10 college football predictions and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Collin Wilson: Minnesota -2.5 vs. Illinois
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -124 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -156 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +102 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
It's a "Row the Boat" week, so I'm going to go with Minnesota as my favorite overdog here.
This is a number that's steaming for a specific reason: Max Brosmer has been elite throwing the ball lately.
He's thrown six passing touchdowns in his past two games and hasn't made a mistake in his last three games.
His average depth of target jumped over 10 yards against Maryland last week, which is really big for a quarterback like Brosmer who had been a dink-and-dunk type of quarterback.
When it takes to the ground, running back Darius Taylor should have a field day against an Illini defense that ranks 128th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 132nd in Defensive Line Yards.
On the other side, Illinois is missing one of its best targets on the outside in Pat Bryant. He suffered a concussion in a blowout against Oregon last week and isn't expected to suit up. Bryant has racked up seven touchdowns on the season, and the next closes wide receiver has one.
There's also going to be a lot of pressure coming Luke Altmyer's way. That's bad news when your top target isn't on the field.
I like Minnesota to take the Illini down on the road.
Stuckey: Auburn -7 vs. Vanderbilt
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Diego Pavia has officially put Vanderbilt back on the map. Look no further than the 'Dores catching single digits on the road in league play — which hasn't happened since 2017.
However, Pavia has taken his fair share of lumps during a brutal October stretch that included close games against Kentucky, Texas and Alabama.
Pavia will suit up but is far from 100% healthy with numerous ailments, including injuries to his shoulder and knee, which really limited his mobility late against the Longhorns.
Plus, this offense is just not the same without a fully mobile Pavia having the ability to create magic on third downs, where the Commodores rank in the top 10 nationally.
Not only does regression loom in that department but also when it comes to turnovers. On the season, Vanderbilt has a +5 turnover margin (Auburn is at -9) in part due to recovering 75% of its fumbles.
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number. Take away a few turnovers at critical moments, and this Auburn team is potentially sitting at 6-2 or maybe even 7-1 against a tougher overall schedule than Vanderbilt.
And despite that more difficult slate, Auburn still sits in the top 30 nationally in net yards per play (+1.06) against FBS competition in non-garbage time, while the Dores rank 82nd — just ahead of Western Kentucky and Rice.
Instead, the Tigers come in at 3-5 against everybody's favorite underdog, which I think is creating some value in a game I project closer to 10 than seven.
Plus, this is a pretty important game for Auburn ahead of its bye week.
Not only does it basically need to win this game for any shot at a bowl, but it will be out for revenge after Pavia, Jerry Kill, Eli Stowers and New Mexico State embarrassed Auburn on its home field last season as massive underdogs. I'm sure Auburn has had this game circled since fall camp.
I can't imagine Auburn comes out flat against a still very vulnerable Vandy defense outside of the safety and slot positions and an offensive line that can still be pushed around.
For reference, I have Vanderbilt's defense rated right around the national average, while Auburn has a top-25 stop unit. It also doesn't hurt that Auburn got to see this unique Pavia offense just last season.
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