College Football Afternoon Best Bets for Week 11
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
While the college football Week 11 noon slate was a good one, there's even more going on in the afternoon window.
Saturday afternoon is highlighted by No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 16 Ole Miss in a big game with College Football Playoff and SEC Championship implications, but that's far from the only matchup taking place.
Our college football writers found betting value on four other afternoon NCAAF matchups, including Colorado vs. Texas Tech, Iowa State vs. Kansas, Duke vs. NC State and Georgia State vs. James Madison.
Continue reading for our Week 11 college football best bets for Saturday afternoon — and check out the rest of our top picks for the noon and evening kickoff windows.
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Iowa State vs. Kansas Best Bet: Bet the Home 'Dog
By Greg Liodice
Everything about this game suggests that Iowa State walks away without a scratch. But anytime the Kansas Jayhawks take the field, it’s never that simple.
I feel terrible for Kansas and its fans. A program that is 2-6 could easily be 6-2 if a few games went its way.
In four games this season, the Jayhawks have lost by four points or less, including two weeks ago in the Sunflower Showdown, falling 29-27 to Kansas State.
Despite his lackluster numbers, I like Jalon Daniels’ game. His legs can create plays when all else fails, and I think he has a decent enough arm to make a difference.
However, a lot of Kansas’ offense is through the ground. Along with Daniels, Devin Neal is a tank, averaging a smidge under six yards per carry and eight trips to the end zone.
The Jayhawks are also among the best running teams in the nation, ranking 12th in Rush Success Rate and 13th in Rush PPA.
It’s the perfect storm since Iowa State ranks 97th in Rush Success Allowed. While the Cyclones are incredible at preventing pass plays, it plays perfectly into what Kansas is looking to accomplish.
To continue with the trend of tight-knit battles, I’m taking the Jayhawks to cover against Iowa State.
Pick: Kansas +3 or Better
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Duke vs. NC State Best Bet: Beatdown by Blue Devils
By John Feltman
The Blue Devils somehow did not cover last weekend in head coach Manny Diaz’s return to Coral Gables, but there were a lot of encouraging results from the matchup.
The offense finally found its form and seems to have built some momentum heading into Raleigh this weekend against NC State.
I love the matchup on the defensive side of the ball for the Blue Devils, and their offensive performance last week gives me hope that they can crack through against defensive coordinator Tony Gibson’s stingy 3-3-5 defense.
Manny Diaz and defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke's unit has done an outstanding job in their 3-3-5 scheme. The defensive line is ferocious, and their secondary has held up their end of the bargain.
The Blue Devils rank inside the top 30 in the following defensive metrics:
- Line Yards Allowed
- Passing Success Rate
- Havoc (3rd)
- Finishing and Quality Drives
Their defense alone is why they have six wins, and it's safe to say many of us underestimated the impact of the Diaz and Patke hires once Mike Elko departed for Texas A&M and gutted the old staff.
The Wolfpack cannot run the ball on offense, setting up a terrific day for these pass rushers to run free and immediately enter the backfield.
Don't get fooled from the Wolfpack’s offensive performance last week against Stanford, especially considering every opponent has had their way with the Cardinal defense all season long.
Quarterback CJ Bailey has put up solid numbers since he took over for the injured Grayson McCall, but the Blue Devils secondary has been outstanding.
There are too many questions about the Wolfpack offensive line. Although I have been impressed with Bailey's play, their one-dimensional offensive approach will burn them big-time here.
They need the bodies up front to slow down the Blue Devils' pass rush, and it's setting up to be a dream matchup for the defense.
Pick: Duke +3.5 (Play to PK)
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Georgia State vs. James Madison Best Bet: Expect a Blowout
This is an excellent spot for James Madison. The Dukes are coming off a bye week after throttling Southern Mississippi and now face a Georgia State team that has lost five straight games and is in free-fall mode.
The Panthers will be playing their fourth road game in a row, having gone on the road to Marshall, Appalachian State, Connecticut and now to Harrisonburg.
It’s hard to blame Georgia State for its struggles after starting behind the eight ball with the late offseason coaching change.
The biggest issues for Georgia State have come on defense. The Panthers defense ranks outside of the top 100 in every advanced metric, including 121st in the country in Success Rate allowed.
Alonza Barnett III, George Pettaway and the rest of this James Madison offense should have no problem moving the ball on a defense that has allowed at least 30 points in six of its eight games.
Zach Gibson has definitely been an upgrade at quarterback for Georgia State, but this James Madison defense ranks third in the country in Success Rate allowed and sits 14th in PFF’s Coverage grade. It should make things very hard on this Panthers offense.
The Dukes have allowed more than 215 passing yards just once all season, and they have allowed just six rushing scores on the year.
James Madison leads the country with 23 turnovers forced in eight games. They have picked off 16 passes on the year and lead the nation with a 23-6 turnover margin.
When Bob Chesney has the Dukes rolling, they've pulled away from teams. Their six wins have come by 23, seven, 20, 56, 32 and 17 points.
James Madison is still alive in the Sun Belt title race and has plenty to play or here.
The Dukes are the much better team, and this is a great situational spot for them. Since 2019, teams coming off a bye facing a team playing its fourth consecutive road game are 7-0 against the spread.
Pick: James Madison -15.5 (Play to -17)
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Colorado vs. Texas Tech Best Bet: Red Raiders Can Keep It Close
Yes, Shedeur Sanders should have plenty of success through the air against a mediocre Texas Tech pass defense.
Guess what? The Red Raiders can also move the ball up and down the field against a Buffaloes defense that's rather soft against the run.
Tech running back Tahj Brooks is one of the most complete backs in all of America and should have his way between the tackles from start to finish in this one.
Additionally, Behren Morton is more than equipped to hit guys like Josh Kelly down the field if Colorado starts to sell out against the run.
In a game that all of a sudden has massive implications in the Big 12 race, I’ll back the home team catching points in what will likely be a shootout.
Lubbock will be rocking, and I like the Red Raiders to get this done outright, but taking the four gives us some extra cushion.
Pick: Texas Tech +4.5 (Play to +3)
