Week 11 College Football Best Bets
Our Top 2 Picks for Saturday's Evening Slate
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today's evening slate of games. The picks below are for matchups that kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET or later.
Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
No. 16 NC State vs. No. 12 Wake Forest
Saturday, Nov. 13 7:30 p.m. ET ACC Network |
NC State -2.5 (+130)  |
By Alex Hinton
NC State and Wake Forest will meet in Winston-Salem in what will be a huge game in determining the winner of the ACC Atlantic. I think this is a situation in which the wrong team is favored.
NC State is 23rd in SP+ ranking, while Wake Forest is 34th. NC State and Wake Forest are both capable of putting a ton of points on the board, but NC State has the better defense in this game.
The Wolfpack are sixth in scoring defense while ranking third in both standard down Success Rate Allowed and Rushing Success Rate Allowed. Conversely, Wake Forest is 76th in scoring defense, 109th in Passing Play Success Rate Allowed, and 112th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
While this will likely be a high-scoring game, I trust NC State to get more stops when it needs to.
This line opened at +2.5 and has slowly been drifting in favor of NC State, which is currently +1 on DraftKings. While you could simply take NC State to cover, you would only take it to cover one point if you think it will win the game outright.
Taking the Wolfpack as a short favorite on an alternative spread maximizes the value. You could take +1 at -110 or -2.5 at +130. If you’re feeling really bold, you could take the alternative up higher in NC State’s direction.
However, I like the Wolfpack to at least win by a field goal.
Pick: NC State -2.5 (+130)
Nevada vs. No. 22 San Diego State
Saturday, Nov. 13 10:30 p.m. ET CBS Sports Network |
Nevada +3  |
Nevada opened as a one-point underdog, but that number quickly shot up to three for Saturday’s matchup against San Diego State.
The Aztecs are 8-1 on the season and currently tied with Nevada for the top spot in the Mountain West West Division.
San Diego State has leaned on its defense that has allowed just under 17 points per game this season. But it’s had the 119th-easiest schedule through nine weeks in the season, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Aztecs snuck by San Jose State, Air Force, and Hawaii with one-score victories.
San Diego State matched up against its first true passing threat in Fresno State two weeks ago, a game it lost, 30-20. The defense allowed over 300 passing yards and 7.1 yards per pass attempt.
This week, the Aztecs welcome the top passing attack in the Mountain West in Nevada.
Quarterback Carson Strong is averaging over 350 passing yards per game while putting up 7.8 yards per passing attempt. He’s tossed 25 touchdowns on the season and completed over 70% of his pass attempts this season.
The Wolf Pack are scoring over 36 points per game and averaging nearly 450 total yards per game.
San Diego State has been playing its games at Dignity Health Sports Park while its own stadium is slated to be finished for next season. In the home loss to Fresno, there was a crowd of only 11,000 people, and it was rumored the majority of them were supporting Fresno State. It will be a similar situation in this matchup. It won’t feel like a home game for SDSU.
San Diego State won’t be able to keep up offensively, and the Aztecs’ true colors are going to be shown late in the season as the competition finally stiffens.
Pick: Nevada +3
