You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Last week, we got a sixth straight split after Texas held on for me but Alabama let Collin down in an overtime thriller against LSU in Death Valley.
For Week 11, we both rolled with medium-sized home conference favorites. Hopefully, we can avoid any backdoor shenanigans.
YTD: 11-9 +1.1 units
Wilson: Michigan State -9.5
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 41.5 +100o / -122u | +275 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 41.5 +100o / -122u | -360 |
There are just not many advantages for Rutgers, which brings one of the worst offenses in the country to East Lansing. The Scarlet Knights rank dead last in Rush Explosiveness and 130th in Passing Downs Success Rate.
The latter is key since Michigan State can be exploited by any competent passing attack. Fortunately for Sparty, Rutgers does not fall into that category.
Meanwhile, Michigan State has quietly been on a bit of a roll. The Spartans have covered three straight, including a pair of outright victories as touchdown-plus underdogs against Wisconsin and Illinois.
Mel Tucker's bunch also got healthier during the bye week in mid-October. That included quarterback Payton Thorne, who had been nursing an injury over the first half of the season. Look for Thorne to connect on a few deep balls to wide receiver Jayden Reed to help Michigan State eventually pull away.
Similar to last week, I think the market has overreacted to the impact of eight Michigan State players getting suspended for the tunnel incident at Michigan.
The only major impactful loss is pro prospect Jacoby Windmon at linebacker, but it managed just fine without him last week in an upset win at Illinois.
The other suspended players include a struggling starting safety and a few defensive depth pieces. Regardless, Rutgers doesn't have the offense that can exploit any potential holes.
I expect an inspired Spartans effort at home. They're trending in the right direction and likely need this win for bowl eligibility.
Pick: Michigan State -9.5 |
Stuckey: Texas -7
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 65 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 65 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Is this the week TCU finally has to face a healthy starting quarterback for an entire game?
After knocking out the starting quarterbacks for Oklahoma, Kansas State (and the backup), Kansas and coming back against an injured Spencer Sanders and Oklahoma State, the Horned Frogs amazingly did it again last week against Texas Tech.
After a hot start, quarterback Behren Morton departed with an injury in the first half, paving the way for Tyler Shough to take over.
It did not end well for Shough, who still doesn't look comfortable since recently returning from injury. Despite attempting 12 more passes, he actually finished with fewer passing yards than Morton.
Despite facing a backup or injured quarterback in five of its seven games against FBS teams not named Colorado, the TCU defense still grades out poorly. It's scary to think what the metrics could potentially look like.
Fortunately for Texas, it has a very competent backup quarterback in Hudson Card if it somehow comes to that again. He actually has better overall numbers than Quinn Ewers in many aspects.
Regardless of who takes the snaps, Texas should absolutely shred this Horned Frog stop unit. Take your pick of explosive plays through the air or on the ground with the nation's best running back, Bijan Robinson. It all should work.
On the other side of the ball, don't expect TCU to find much success on the ground against a very stingy Texas run defense.
This is also a major step up in class for the TCU offense, which has also benefited from facing a very easy schedule of opposing defenses.
The Frogs will have opportunities through the air against a shaky Texas secondary. However, star wide receiver Quentin Johnston may not be at 100% after suffering an ankle injury last Saturday. He's arguably the best wideout in the country.
Plus, former long-time TCU head coach Gary Patterson now serves as a Texas assistant. He knows Max Duggan — who also has a nagging injury — as well as anyone.
This will also mark the Horned Frogs' toughest road test by a country mile. In Big 12 play, they've faced only West Virginia and Kansas away from home in a pair of tightly-contested victories.
While TCU has needed every break, bounce and injury to remain unblemished, Texas has had the opposite luck. With a few bounces, the Longhorns could easily be the undefeated team in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.
They've had trouble closing out games but hopefully can play looser after closing out last week's victory at Kansas State.
If you're into trends, in the months of November and December since 2005, undefeated teams have gone just 5-12 against the spread (29.4%) as touchdown-plus underdogs away from home. Tennessee became the latest victim just last week.
I expect Texas to once again build a lead in the first half and eventually pull away for a double-digit victory.
Pick: Texas -7 |
