There aren't many big games on the slate this weekend, but there are still some very important matchups that could change the College Football Playoff landscape that continues to shift.
Here are the pace numbers as we stand through Week 10.
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute, seconds per play and more.
Using those metrics, along with a look at the weather and key injuries, the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Now, let's dive into the Week 11 slate.
Charlotte vs. Middle Tennessee
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -385 |
Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the country.
It got obliterated, 59-7, by Western Kentucky last week, as the Hilltoppers' passing attack threw for 461 yards and gained over 10 yards per play.
Overall, Charlotte is allowing 7.3 yards per play (130th in FBS) while ranking 128th in Success Rate Allowed and 130th in EPA/Play Allowed. The 49ers cannot stop the run or the pass, as they're outside of the top 120 in both EPA/Pass Allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed.
Middle Tennessee's offense is not good by any means, but it's gained over five yards per play in its last two games against UTEP and Louisiana Tech.
The Blue Raiders also play at the eighth-fastest tempo in the country. That's good for them in this game because if they take a lead — which they're heavily favored to do — they will force Charlotte to play at their fast tempo.
The X-factor of Charlotte's offense is star quarterback Chris Reynolds, who suffered an injury in the 49ers' Week 0 game against Florida Atlantic and didn't return until Charlotte's Week 3 game against Georgia State.
Reynolds is having his best season yet, as his PFF passing grade sits at 84.2. He's averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and has 18 big-time throws compared to just nine turnover-worthy plays.
Charlotte can also run the ball pretty well, as it's top-50 in Rushing Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards and EPA/Play.
So, I expect the pace of this game to be fast with Charlotte playing from behind, which means we're in store for a lot of points.
I have 74.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 67.
Pick: Over 66.5 |
Louisiana Tech vs. UTSA
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18 -110 | 68 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18 -110 | 68 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
Louisiana Tech got its offense back on track last weekend, beating Middle Tennessee by a score of 40-24 after losing in double overtime to FIU the week before.
The key for Louisiana Tech's offense is starting quarterback Parker McNeil, who returned from injury and played an outstanding game against Middle Tennessee by throwing for three touchdowns and averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.
McNeil is a big-time boom-or-bust quarterback, as he's averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. Louisiana Tech ranks just 84th in Passing Success Rate, but it sits 11th in passing explosiveness.
In fact, McNeil is averaging 9.6 yards per target with a 96.3 PFF passing grade on passes over 20 yards in the air.
Parker McNeil must be made of money as he’s dropping dimes all over Joe Aillet Stadium this afternoon #CollegeFootball | @LATechFB
— College Football Network (@CFN365) November 5, 2022
That's huge in this game because UTSA is incredibly vulnerable to giving up explosive plays in the passing game, ranking 117th in passing explosiveness allowed.
On top of that, the Roadrunners have the ninth-worst tackling grade in the country, per PFF.
On the other side of the ball, UTSA quarterback Frank Harris is one of the most dynamic Group of Five quarterbacks. Harris owns an 89.0 PFF passing grade while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and throwing 21 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. .
Frank Harris with the brilliant touch on the game-winner to Joshua Cephus 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9XiX2h3qfZ
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 5, 2022
He's also a threat on the ground, averaging 6.4 yards per carry with 21 runs that have gone at least 10 yards
Louisiana Tech's defense, meanwhile, has been horrible all season long. It allows 6.4 yards per play (122nd in FBS) and ranks 107th in EPA/Play Allowed.
The main problem has been its struggles against the run. The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Rush Allowed, and Defensive Line Yards. They also have the fourth-worst tackling grade in college football, per PFF.
UTSA boasts a really solid rushing attack that ranks top-25 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush, along with also a top-10 mark in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed.
The Roadrunners play at a lightning-fast pace, running a play every 22.56 seconds, which ranks 13th in the country. On the other side, Louisiana Tech plays at an above-average pace, running a play every 24.6 seconds.
I have 84.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 68.
Pick: Over 68 |
