We continue Saturday's NCAAF slate with my six Saturday night spots, including Week 11 college football picks and predictions for Saturday, Nov. 9.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 11, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 44-35-1 (55.7%)
- Overall: 143-105-2 (57.7%)
Stuckey's Week 11 College Football Picks for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | Maryland +26 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | LSU +3 |
  | 8 p.m. | Penn State -13.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Nevada +24.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Virginia +7.5 |
  | 10:15 p.m. | Utah +4 |
Maryland +26 at Oregon
7 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
Oregon bit me last week with a last-second touchdown to cover against Michigan, but prior to that, the Ducks hadn't shown a propensity to run up the score in the second halves of games.
They really have no incentive to at this point with a spot in the College Football Playoff all but locked up. The focus late in games with big leads will likely be on staying healthy and getting younger guys some looks, which we saw in non-covers against UCLA and Michigan State.
From a pure market standpoint, I bet Oregon -21 at home against Illinois two weeks ago, and I have Maryland power-rated ever so slightly ahead of the Illini.
Maryland's defense also provides a bit better resistance against the run, which should at least give it a puncher's chance.
The secondary isn't any good, but it will at least be healthier than it was in a blowout loss to Minnesota in which it was down multiple defensive backs and lost another early on to a targeting call.
It doesn't hurt that Oregon will likely be down its top receiver and starting guard.
I do worry about the putrid Maryland offensive line against this Oregon front, but the Terps at least have some talented skill position players who can make enough plays to stay within this number.
And if not, they could easily get in the back door, assuming Dan Lanning parks the bus.
Even in complete demolitions of Purdue and Illinois, both the Boilermakers and Illini had chances to cover every number late in the fourth quarter.
After an embarrassing loss at Minnesota, I'm expecting a much sharper Maryland team off of a bye in a maximum focus spot on the road against the No. 1 team in the country.
Although, the coaching matchup is certainly not working in my favor, as Mike Locksley hasn't thrived in this spot historically.
Notable Nugget
Locksley is just 8-18 ATS (30.8%) as a road conference underdog, although he has covered 4-of-7 when catching over three touchdowns.
Projection: Maryland +23.1
Pick: Maryland +26 (Play to +24.5)
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LSU +3 vs. Alabama
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Again, a common theme in this piece all season has been the lack of separation between the top teams in the country, especially in the SEC, which may explain why underdogs have fared so well in league play (29-13 ATS) this year.
The same holds true in this matchup. I don't think there's close to a touchdown separating Alabama and LSU, which a field-goal spread in Death Valley at night implies.
The Tigers don't hold any special scheduling edge in this matchup since both teams come in off of a bye for a quasi-playoff game with the loser likely eliminated from College Football Playoff contention.
Therefore, this is more of a "give me the home 'dog catching a field goal" spot since I project this closer to a coin-flip.
Plus, the LSU offense does have a few matchup advantages. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier should have a field against a very vulnerable Alabama secondary that's still very inexperienced.
The Tide's metrics still look good on paper, but who have they been tested against outside of getting lit up by Carson Beck, who hasn't necessarily lit the world on fire since? The other passing offenses they have faced include:
- Western Kentucky (with a now benched quarterback)
- Wisconsin (with a backup quarterback)
- USF (which missed countless wide-open deep shots)
- Vanderbilt (which put up 40 in an upset win)
- South Carolina (which should have arguably won in Tuscaloosa)
- Tennessee (which upset the Tide in Knoxville)
- Missouri (with a backup quarterback)
That's not the most daunting schedule of opposing aerial attacks. And overall, Alabama's defensive strength of schedule ranks below the national average without even accounting for injuries.
Meanwhile, LSU has faced a top-15 schedule on both offense and defense. Well, that will change on Saturday night with LSU, which ranks in the top 20 in both EPA per Pass and Passing Success Rate.
Nussmeier should have ample time in the pocket working behind an elite pass-blocking offensive line that has allowed the fourth-fewest sacks. This Alabama defense does have some pass-rushing prowess as you'd expect, but it's not an elite group by any stretch.
My one concern is the loss of starting guard Garrett Dellinger, who will miss this game with an injury.
Will that prove to be a weak link, especially since a few of the backs aren't great in pass protection? Only time will tell, but LSU should have opportunities to move the ball through the air and potentially have more of a complementary run game with the emergence of freshman Caden Durham and two weeks to work more on the new run-blocking scheme.
On the other side of the ball, the LSU defense continues to get better with each passing week under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker.
The extra time off should also allow for LSU to make some adjustments for how it contains a mobile quarterback, which ultimately cost the Tigers after Texas A&M made the in-game switch to Marcel Reed.
Alabama's Jalen Milroe should benefit health-wise from the time off, but LSU won't be caught off guard this week.
The Alabama offense also hasn't been firing on all cylinders since that first-half explosion against Georgia. The Tide have faced some elite defenses in fairness, but the run game has been stuck in the mud and they rank only 48th in Success Rate thus far.
The offensive line has some extremely concerning underlying metrics (outside the top 100 in a number of categories), which could prove problematic against an underrated and aggressive LSU defensive front.
This could simply boil down to whether or not LSU can limit Milroe's deep balls, which have remained elite just like last season. LSU's defense is vulnerable to pass explosives, so this will be an area to watch.
Removing flukes or injuries, this looks like a nail-biter throughout, so I'll take the home 'dog catching a field goal against an Alabama team I still have highlighted as overvalued in the market.
Notable Nugget
Brian Kelly is 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) with extra time to prepare. He's also 28-13-1 ATS (68.3%) as an underdog of at least a field goal, covering by 5.75 points per game.
Projection: LSU +0.8
Pick: LSU +3 or Better
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Penn State -13.5 vs. Washington
8 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
This is a brutal spot for Washington, which has to travel across the country again to take on Penn State at home off of a loss in a prime-time "White Out" game in Happy Valley.
Over the past six weeks, UW has also traveled to road games against Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana with the latter two each ending as losses by at least two touchdowns.
It's also worth noting the Huskies definitely got a bit fortunate last week in their five-point win over USC. They were outgained by almost 100 total yards but benefited from a +3 turnover margin and two fourth-down stops late in the game.
That unit was also on the field for 80 plays, which could lead to some fatigue this week in Happy Valley.
From a matchup perspective, Penn State's terrific running back tandem should run at will on Washington, which ranks 92nd in EPA per Rush.
The Huskies feature one of the nation's elite pass defenses, but that strength is neutered a bit considering PSU's primary weakness lies at the wide receiver position.
On the other side of the ball, Washington does have a very good (and balanced) offense, but it still doesn't do the little things right.
Penn State should also dominate the line of scrimmage against an overmatched Washington offensive line. That will likely lead to a key mistake or two from quarterback Will Rogers, which should allow the Nittany Lions to build margin.
I'm not a huge fan of laying points with this methodical Penn State offense that just hasn't passed the smell test in 2024, and I don't love backing teams off of marquee losses in the so-called "angry role."
However, this is not a great spot (nor matchup) for Washington in a game I project at over two touchdowns.
Notable Nugget
James Franklin is 43-26-2 ATS (62.3%) as a double-digit favorite. Among 387 head coaches in our Action Labs database over the past 20 years, only Nick Saban is more profitable when laying 10-plus.
Projection: Penn State -14.8
Pick: Penn State -13.5 or Better
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Nevada +24.5 at Boise State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I have to imagine we're getting close to the peak of Boise State's market value if we're not there already.
On the other side, I think this presents a good opportunity to buy low on a feisty and well-coached Nevada team following three straight losses that partly occurred due to injuries, turnovers and failed fourth-down attempts.
Just take a look at the net yardage in those trio of defeats:
- -21 vs. Fresno State
- +118 vs. Colorado State
- -15 vs. Hawaii
Unfortunately for the Wolf Pack, they now have seven losses after a promising start to the season, which ends their bowl dreams. However, as a result, this becomes their Super Bowl in a way with an opportunity to play spoiler.
I expect a game effort from a much healthier bunch overall, including at quarterback with Brendon Lewis, who has the mobility required to go up against a Boise State defense that can really get after opposing quarterbacks.
Nevada also profiles as an intriguing large underdog with a methodical offense that thrives on the ground.
The Pack rank in the top 25 nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush. That's exactly how to attack a Boise State defense that sits 95th in EPA per Rush allowed.
Ashton Jeanty will certainly get his against a bad run (and overall) defense, but Nevada can shrink this game enough with its successful ground game to stay within 24, assuming Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson doesn't try to run this up for playoff style points late and the horrid Nevada special teams don't implode.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Nevada is 22-12-2 ATS (64.7%) as a road conference dog, including 6-2 when catching more than three touchdowns.
Projection: Nevada +22.1
Pick: Nevada +24.5 (Play to +24)
Virginia +7.5 at Pitt
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
I haven't bought this Pittsburgh team all season, and I'm not about to start after seeing the Panthers get their doors blown off in Dallas last week.
A loss like that was definitely coming after Pitt's luck-fueled 7-0 start, which included a pair of late double-digit comebacks against Cincy and West Virginia, a fortunate two-point home win over Cal and a turnover-assisted blowout at home against Syracuse in which the Panthers had five interceptions — three of which they took to the house.
Their other three wins came against UNC, Kent State and Youngstown State. Color me less than impressed with that resume.
And while I certainly make plenty of exceptions (see Penn State above), I prefer to fade rather than back top-20 teams following losses in top-20 matchups.
For what it's worth, they have historically covered in these spots 43% of the time and a touch less as a favorite of more than a touchdown.
The Panthers could certainly come out a bit flat here after basically having their shot at a College Football Playoff berth and ACC Championship end with that loss to SMU.
I'm not sure how excited they'll be for a home game against Virginia after playing SMU with Clemson on deck.
They also saw one of their better defenders in safety Donovan McMillon go down with an injury, and I think there's a substantial drop-off to his backup.
Meanwhile, this is also a spot to buy low on the Cavaliers following three straight losses during a brutal part of their schedule. More importantly, they'll be coming off of a bye, which should enable them to get much healthier.
In their last game, they got blown out by North Carolina, but I'm not sure many realize how banged up UVA was in that game, especially along the offensive line, where they were down to their third-string center.
The issues up front (and a horrid tackling day) basically ruined any chance of operating a competent offense against the Heels. However, the Hoos should have everybody back this week. We'll see if that's the case with a couple of key defenders as well.
From a matchup perspective, teams have to hit explosive plays through the air against a Pitt defense that ranks 95th in EPA per Pass. Virginia is certainly capable of doing just that with the ultimate gunslinger Anthony Colandrea under center.
Colandrea could certainly put the ball in harm's way here, but that has to be a major concern for Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein as well moving forward. On the season, he has an impressive 17:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio but an alarming 10:20 Big-Time Throw to Turnover-Worthy Play rate, per PFF.
The turnovers are coming for a Pitt team I think the market is still overvaluing after its hot start to the 2024 campaign.
Notable Nugget
In ACC play, Pat Narduzzi is just 6-15 ATS (28.6%) as a favorite of six or more points, failing to cover by an average of nearly six points per game.
Projection: Virginia +5.8
Pick: Virginia +7.5
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Utah +4 vs. BYU
10:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
I'm just not buying that anybody is any good in the Big 12 this season.
Yes, BYU has been awesome this season en route to an 8-0 start as the lone remaining undefeated team in the league. We could easily see the Cougars in the College Football Playoff, which I don't think anybody predicted before the season.
However, I'm not fully buying in just yet — although I certainly have been wrong this season a few times when going against Kalani Sitake's bunch.
Regardless of my dumb bets (with the exception of Oklahoma State), I don't think anybody would argue that BYU has been quite fortunate this season.
The Pokes should have won in Provo if not for a last-second game-winning touchdown and some key injuries. The win over Kansas State was extremely fluky with a number of non-offensive scores leading to 38 points on 241 total yards of offense.
The Cougars have also won all three one-possession games, including one that has aged really well at SMU — but that was before the Mustangs really got it going this season after the bye week.
I'm also not sure BYU can keep up its current pace in the turnover department (+7 margin) or on fourth downs (15-for-18 on the season). The latter has certainly saved a number of drives, considering it hasn't been a great third-down offense.
We could start to see some of that regression against an elite Utah defense that ranks second nationally on third downs. Conversely, Utah sits on the opposite end of the spectrum with a rare negative turnover margin (-4) and a 44% fourth-down conversion rate (8-for-18).
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has also gotten away with some risky throws this season, especially when under pressure.
I wouldn't be surprised if he threw a couple of picks against Utah's heavy Cover 1 defense — which Retzlaff has had some issues against.
Is this the game Utah finally gets its first pick-six of the season? It just needs one in 2024 to set the NCAA record for most consecutive seasons (21) with an interception return for a touchdown.
While both teams are coming off of a bye, I think it actually favors Utah in this situation. Its defense needed the break after getting absolutely no help from its offense on a weekly basis.
Meanwhile, the offense could also really benefit from extra time to work on some new things under interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian, who was promoted to the position in late October after Andy Ludwig stepped down.
It remains unclear who the Utes will start at quarterback between Brandon Rose and Isaac Wilson, but maybe that element of surprise works in their favor for what has been an abysmal offensive year.
Regardless of who gets the nod under center, Utah will likely lean on stud running back Micah Bernard (and its defense) against a very suspect BYU run defense that ranks 77th in Rush Success Rate and outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush.
Utah can ground-and-pound with Bernard to shorten this game while relying on its top-10 defense to ugly this game up and keep it close in front of a raucous Holy War crowd.
It's been a super disappointing lost season for the Utes, so this now becomes their Super Bowl against their undefeated bitter rival. I expect Kyle Whittingham to have his kids ready to roll for this one.
Notable Nugget
Kyle Whittingham is 27-16 ATS (62.8%) as an underdog of four or more points.
Projection: Utah +2.0
Pick: Utah +4 (Play to +3.5)
