Another 2-1 performance last week has me itching to get back at it.
This week, we turn to a Heisman contender, a resurgent playmaker who hasn’t lost a game since 2021 and a dual-threat signal-caller with a nose for the end zone.
Week 11 College Football PrizePicks
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's top college football PrizePicks plays from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any same or team logo to navigate to a specific play discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Utah vs. Washington
Michael Penix Jr.
Less Than 302.5 Passing Yards (Play to 299.5)
At the beginning of the season, a play like this would have been idiotic.
After all, Penix averaged 400 passing yards per game in September. But that was, for the most part, against subpar competition.
Utah is anything but subpar when it comes to slowing down opposing passers.
Here’s the hit list of Utah’s defense accomplishments:
The Utes are second nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, 11th in sack rate, and a matching 11th in Havoc generated. When they’ve faced other Heisman-caliber passers, they’ve held them in check through the air. USC’s Caleb Williams threw for 256 yards, nearly 40 yards below his season average. And Oregon’s Bo Nix threw for 248 yards, more than 50 yards below his season average.
Then, there’s the emergence of Dillon Johnson on the ground. The Huskies’ running back has received at least 18 carries in three of his last four games and turned those opportunities against Oregon, Stanford and USC into 440 rushing yards.
This is no longer just a pass-happy offense.
And finally, we have Penix’s late-season swoon. The Heisman front-runner has looked downright mortal in the past three games, averaging just 300 yards per game with a 6:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those numbers came against Arizona State, Stanford and USC, whose average ranking against the pass is 102nd.
Utah’s secondary and pass rush will be a rude awakening for Penix.
Pick: Michael Penix Jr. Less Than 302.5 Passing Yards (Play to 299.5)
Ole Miss vs. Georgia
Ladd McConkey
More Than 66.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 74.5)
We hit McConkey’s over during the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, with the slot receiver exploding for 135 yards. Last week, he set a season-high with seven receptions while amassing 95 receiving yards.
With Brock Bowers still on the mend, McConkey is the Dawgs' big-play man.
And when it comes to slowing down the big play, Ole Miss isn’t the defense to do it. The much-maligned Landshark defense is anything but menacing. They rank 69th in Explosiveness allowed, which is how McConkey hurts you — he’s averaging 17.5 yards per reception with Bowers sidelined.
Then there’s the predicted game flow in this one. Based on the spread and total, the implied score is Georgia 35, Ole Miss 24. The Rebels have averaged 36.2 points per game across their last five and have the offensive balance to hang around in this one.
The longer this is a game, the more targets McConkey will likely see, which is a good sign given his rising targets in the past two games (15 total).
Pick: Ladd McConkey More Than 66.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 74.5)
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma
Garrett Greene
More Than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Sometimes, it helps to play a consistent outcome.
Case in point: Oklahoma has surrendered a rushing touchdown to a quarterback in three straight games. Greene averages one rushing touchdown per game, including a game in which he played fewer than ten snaps against Pitt.
Weakness meets strength.
Greene can score on a big scramble as he did against TCU (35 yards) or find the end zone when the Mountaineers are on the doorstep. He’s a significant part of WVU’s goal-to-goal packages, keeping the ball on zone reads, sneaking it and taking it on designed runs.
Two weeks ago, against UCF, he scored three times on the ground. Once from seven yards out on a zone read, then again from seven yards out on an RPO that he tucked and ran with and finally, he capped the hat trick on the ground with a QB boot-turned QB sweep.
He’ll get every opportunity to punch one in against Oklahoma on Saturday.
Pick: Garrett Greene More Than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
