There aren't many big games on the slate this weekend, but there are still some very important matchups that could change the College Football Playoff landscape that continues to shift.
Here are the pace numbers as we stand through Week 11.
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute, seconds per play and more.
Using those metrics, along with a look at the weather and key injuries, the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Now, let's dive into the Week 12 slate.
UMass vs. Texas A&M
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+33.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-33.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
Oh boy, things are not going well in College Station right now. Texas A&M lost its sixth straight game at Auburn last weekend to fall to 3-7.
The main reason it's struggled so much is because of its offense — more specifically, the quarterback position. Whether it be Max Johnson, Haynes King or Conner Weigman, all three have been completely ineffective.
Weigman got his second start of the season against Auburn and played terribly, averaging just 3.4 yards per attempt and with a 49.8 PFF passing grade and a whopping four turnover-worthy plays.
The Aggies' passing attack, as a whole, ranks 112th in Passing Success Rate and 102nd in EPA/Pass.
To make matters more complicated this week, A&M isn't facing the UMass of old. This UMass team actually has a halfway decent defense.
The Minutemen sit 41st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 83rd in Passing Success, which is a big improvement from years past.
UMass also ranks in the top half of college football in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Defensive Stuff Rate, so Texas A&M is not going to be able to just run the ball at will.
Most importantly, UMass has excelled at holding teams to field goals when they get into Minutemen territory, ranking 46th in Finishing Drives Allowed. Meanwhile. Texas A&M comes in at 71st in Offensive Finishing Drives.
However, things are as bad as ever for the UMass offense. The Minutemen are averaging just 4.0 yards per play (128th in FBS) while ranking 130th in Success Rate and 126th in EPA/Play.
Quarterback is a big problem for them, as Brady Olson got benched at Arkansas State last weekend in favor of Garrett Dzuro.
Olson has received the majority of snaps this season and has been completely ineffective, averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt with a 42.7 PFF passing grade.
No matter who's under center, UMass will be going up against the 14th-best secondary in terms of Passing Success Rate Allowed, so I have a hard time seeing how it's going to move the ball through the air.
UMass also can't run the ball to save its life, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry for a rank of 108th in EPA/Rush. Additionally, UMass ranks 130th in Finishing Drives, while Texas A&M is ninth in Finishing Drives Allowed on defense.
The total has crashed in this game. After opening at 51, this number has dropped to 47 at most books. I believe this has some value, as I have 39.6 points projected for this game.
Pick: Under 47.5 |
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Old Dominion vs. Appalachian State
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +570 |
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
Appalachian State has had some bad luck this season with four of its five losses coming by one score. It needs just one more win to reach bowl eligibility, and Saturday is its best opportunity to do so.
Mountaineers quarterback Chase Brice is certainly not having a bad season, considering he has a 77.3 PFF passing grade with a whopping 27 big-time throws.
He also has an average depth of target of 10.8. This Mountaineer offense loves to take deep shots, ranking 46th in passing explosiveness. It will have a big advantage over the Old Dominion secondary, which sits 97th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 102nd in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Appalachian State's run game with Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel has been humming, as the two have combined to average 5.9 yards per carry and score eight touchdowns. Peoples himself is averaging a whopping 4.44 yards after contact per carry, which is one of the main reasons why Appalachian State is 27th in rushing explosiveness.
Old Dominion has a below-average rush defense that ranks 74th in EPA/Rush, so Appalachian State should have no trouble running the ball.
The Old Dominion offense is struggling from a Success Rate standpoint, as it's outside the top 100. However, it ranks 10th in the nation in explosiveness, while Appalachian State's defense sits 92nd in explosiveness allowed.
The Mountaineers are also 83rd in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Old Dominion plays at an incredibly fast pace, ranking 14th in seconds per play. Appalachian State, meanwhile, comes in around the national average.
I have 61.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 50.5 points.
Pick: Over 50.5 |
Colorado State vs. Air Force
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
Air Force is literally playing at the slowest pace in the country this season, averaging a play every 32.04 seconds. The triple option has been really effective at controlling possession, as it holds the ball 59.8% of the time, which is the best mark in the country.
The Falcons should be able to continue that this weekend because Colorado State's offense is terrible.
Jay Norvell came in and installed a completely new Air Raid system after Steve Addazio set up a ground-and-pound offense in his tenure. So far, it's been an utter disaster, as the Rams rank dead last in Success Rate, dead last in Finishing Drives and 128th in EPA/Play.
Their passing attack — which is their only hope against Air Force, which is 108th in EPA/Pass Allowed — is in the bottom 10 in every single passing metric. So, I really don't see how the Rams are going to score multiple touchdowns in this game.
Air Force's triple option has been incredibly efficient this season, ranking top-five in Offensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate Allowed, Power Success Rate and Rushing Success Rate.
However, the Falcons are slowly destroying teams 4-5 yards at a time and rank 118th in explosiveness. Colorado State is actually 39th in explosiveness allowed and grades out as slightly below average against the run.
But if Air Force can control the time of possession in this game, it's going to bleed the clock with its snail pace and keep Colorado State from developing any rhythm offensively.
I only have 37.3 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 44.5 points.
Pick: Under 44.5
