Duke spearheaded our Havoc pick in Week 11, producing another winner for the column after an outright victory as an underdog over NC State. The Blue Devils posted eight tackles for loss and an interception, improving a Defensive Havoc rank of second among all FBS teams.
Our Havoc picks are now 6-3 on the season.
Ole Miss retained the No. 1 overall rank on the defensive side of the ball, producing chaos on 25% of snaps led by 103 tackles for loss on the season.
Army, meanwhile, remains the leader in Havoc Allowed on the offensive side of the ball after a victory over North Texas. The Black Knights have allowed Havoc on just 5.6% of offensive snaps while throwing just one interception on the season.
Havoc is defined by several plays that can change the momentum for both teams, including tackles for loss, pass breakups and forced fumbles on defense. Havoc Allowed encompasses a team's ability to prevent tackles for loss, throw interceptions or fumble the ball. Those variables are combined and weighted with the total number of snaps to create our Havoc Rankings.
Here's a look at our updated Havoc Rankings for Week 12, including each individual head-to-head game.
Texas vs. Arkansas
Texas: 14th in Havoc · Arkansas: 114th in Havoc Allowed
The Razorbacks were in desperate need of a bye week thanks to an SEC schedule that produced a number of key injuries.
Quarterback Taylen Green was listed as questionable when his home state Texas Longhorns come to Fayetteville, but he's set to return. Running back Ja'Quinden Jackson has not played since Oct. 5 against Tennessee and will also be questionable.
Arkansas will need those pieces against a Texas defense that ranks 14th in Defensive Havoc.
The Razorbacks have struggled in pass blocking, ranking outside the top 80, per PFF.
Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski is sure to get the most out of his front against a Razorback offense that's 114th in Havoc Allowed.
The only path for the Hogs to put points on the board will be quick strike explosives from Green on the run, but those plays have also produced scoop-and-score defensive touchdowns for LSU and Ole Miss.
While the questions from a Havoc perspective loom for the Arkansas offense, Texas' passing attack should have a field day in Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. The Hogs rank 119th against pass explosives, generating a contested catch rate of just 123rd, per Sports Info Solutions. The Razorbacks are certainly searching for answers in the back half of the defense, as Pittman announced three of four positions in the secondary are up for competition.
The Longhorns generated 10 explosive passes against Florida in Week 11, tripling the national average in explosive drive rate at 54%.
Pick: Texas -13.5 or Better
